U.S. Crude Oil Production Archives - INO.com Trader's Blog

U.S. Crude Production Gains Slow In October

Posted on January 9, 2019January 7, 2019 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that October crude production averaged 11.560 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 79,000 b/d from September. This was a slowdown in growth from the spectacular numbers recorded in July and August.

However, the year-over-year gain was still a very impressive 1.850 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For October, that additional gains is about 600,000 b/d.

The gain was led by a 33,000 b/d increase in New Mexico, a 31,000 b/d rise in North Dakota and a gain of 22,000 b/d in Colorado. Weather factors affected the overall gain, as production fell by another 29,000 b/d in the U.S. Gulf. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Gains Slow In October" →

U.S. Crude Production Shows No Signs Of Bottleneck

Posted on December 3, 2018 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that August crude oil production averaged 11.475 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 129,000 b/d from August. The gain was led by a 106,000 b/d increase in Texas, a 64,000 b/d rise in North Dakota and a gain of 24,000 b/d in Mexico. Seasonal factors affected the overall gain, as production fell by 147,000 b/d in the U.S. Gulf and rebounded by 43,000 b/d in Alaska.

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 438,000 b/d higher than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 11.037 mmbd. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Shows No Signs Of Bottleneck" →

World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, November 2018

Posted on November 9, 2018November 8, 2018 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for November, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in June at 2.807 billion barrels. It estimated a large 20 million barrel gain for October. Though it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.867 billion, that is 50 million barrels higher than in the October outlook.

Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, reaching 3.0 billion barrels in August. It projects ending the year with 138 million barrels more than at the end of 2018 in glut territory.

The moment of truth has come, and it appears that the sanctions will cut less of Iran’s production and exports than has been added by OPEC+ producers and the U.S. That is why oil prices have been dropping for eight straight sessions.

Oil Price Implications

I performed a simple linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2008 through 2017. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 79 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, November 2018" →

U.S. Crude Production Soars In August

Posted on November 3, 2018November 2, 2018 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that August crude oil production averaged 11.346 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 416,000 b/d from July. The surge was led by a 126,000 b/d increase in Texas and a 74,000 b/d rise in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the increases were broadly based, implying a lagged-response to rising oil prices this year has created enough incentive to ignite production. The large rise in Texas was also unexpected due to reported pipeline constraints.

Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Soars In August" →

World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, October 2018

Posted on October 17, 2018 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for October, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in July at 2.806 billion barrels. It shows inventories rising in the third quarter, contrary to the normal seasonal trend. However, it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.817 billion after the Iranian sanctions are expected to go into effect.

Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, ending the year with 98 million barrels more than at the end of 2018. The expected drop in Iranian production, due to the U.S. sanctions, is forecast to be more-than-offset by increases from other producers, such as the U.S., Canada and the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has recently stated that KSA can produce at least 12 million barrels per day. If it does increase output to that level, this would be a major “surprise” to world markets since its production has never exceeded 11 million. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, October 2018" →