World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2019

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.805 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dipped by 4 million barrels in June 2019 to 2.902 billion, 97 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are no longer expected to rise any further, on balance. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be with 2.899 million barrels, 37 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 35 million barrels to end the year at 2.934 billion.

oecd oil inventories

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. June was reported at 29.8 mmbd.

OPEC has revised its call (demand) for OPEC oil. For 2020, the average is 29.2 mmbd. Therefore, OPEC must cut supply by another 550,000 b/d from June next year just to balance stocks. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2019"

U.S. Crude Production Surges In April

The Energy Information Administration reported that April crude oil production averaged 12.162 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 257,000 b/d from March. The rise resulted from a 107,000 b/d increase in Texas, a 77,000 b/d increase in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), a 32,000 b/d increase in Oklahoma, a 14,000 b/d increase in Colorado, and a 13,000 b/d increase in Wyoming.

Crude Production

A pause in the growth rate in Texas had been expected due to pipeline constraints, which are expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2019 and the first half of 2020. Nonetheless, crude production set yet another record high in April.

Crude Production

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the April figure being 1.687 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For April, that additional gain is about 630,000 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Surges In April"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for June, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks rose by 38 million barrels in May to 2.902 billion, 84 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are no longer expected to rise any further. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be with 2.871 million barrels, 10 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 49 million barrels to end the year at 2.920 billion.

oecd oil inventories

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. U.S. shale is expected to capture market share from OPEC. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019"

U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production averaged 11.905 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 241,000 b/d from February. The rise was largely the result of the resumption of output from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which had been affected by unscheduled maintenance. Production rose by 191,000 b/d.

Crude Production

Elsewhere, there were gains of 42,000 b/d in North Dakota, 23,000 b/d in New Mexico and 16,000 b/d in Oklahoma. There was a decline of 17,000 b/d in Colorado and 5,000 b/d in Texas. A pause in the growth rate in Texas had been expected due to pipeline constraints which are expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2019. Nonetheless, crude production rose by a spectacular 1.441 mmbd from June through March. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March"

Iran Sanctions And OPEC's Deliberations Have Failed To Lift Oil Prices

OPEC+ members met over the weekend to discuss the oil market and the possible actions they may take at the next OPEC meetings scheduled for June 25th and 26th. OPEC’s press release reported:

Following its 14th Meeting, which took place on 19 May 2019, in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving a balanced market and working towards oil market stability on a sustainable basis with solid fundamentals.”

After the meeting, ministers spoke with reporters. According to reporting by CNBC:

Saudi Arabia’s influential oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, warned that global crude stockpiles are rising, threatening to swamp the world in oil and cause prices to collapse. Overall, the market is in a delicate situation. On the one hand, there is a lot of concern — and we acknowledge it — about disruptions and sanctions and supply interruptions. But on the other hand, we see inventories rising. We see plentiful supply around the world, which means we think, all in all, we should be in a comfortable situation in the weeks and months to come.” Continue reading "Iran Sanctions And OPEC's Deliberations Have Failed To Lift Oil Prices"