World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, May 2021

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for May, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In April 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 26 million barrels to end at 2.897 billion, 215 million barrels lower than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 94.04 million barrels per day (mmbd) for April, compared to global oil consumption of 96.18 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 2.14 mmb/d or 64 million barrels for the month. That implies non-OECD stocks dropped by 33 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 168 million barrels to 2.858 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 22 million barrels to end the year at 2.873 billion.

OECD Global Crude Oil Inventories

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release on April 27, 2021: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, May 2021"

Texas Freeze Impacts Crude Oil Production

The Energy Information Administration reported that February crude oil production fell by 1.197 million barrels per day, averaging 9.862 mmbd. This follows a dip of 42,000 b/d in January. The freeze in Texas accounted for the majority of the downturn. The February 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.368 mmbd, a figure that was 506,000 higher than the actual 914 monthly estimate.

Monthly US Crude Oil Production

Drops in production were experienced in Texas (836,000), New Mexico (105,000), Oklahoma (98,000), North Dakota (82,000 b/d), and lesser amounts in many states.

Given the huge reduction last May, production dropped by 2.884 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Continue reading "Texas Freeze Impacts Crude Oil Production"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2021

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for April, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.208 billion in July 2020. In March 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 19 million barrels to end at 2.932 billion, 32 million barrels lower than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 93.47 million barrels per day (mmbd) for March, compared to global oil consumption of 96.0 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 2.53 mmb/d or 78 million barrels for the month. That implies non-OECD stocks dropped by 59 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 149 million barrels to 2.877 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 1 million barrels to end the year at 2.876 billion.

OECD Global Oil Inventories

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release April 1, 2021: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2021"

Crude Production Steady In January 2021

The Energy Information Administration reported that January crude oil production fell by 21,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.080 mmbd. This follows a dip of 67,000 b/d in December.

Monthly US Crude Production

Drops in crude production were experienced in North Dakota (45,000 b/d), Oklahoma (11,000), and in the US Gulf Coast (11,000). But output in Texas rose by 25,000 b/d. Continue reading "Crude Production Steady In January 2021"

U.S. Petroleum Inventory Rise 4.8 Million Barrels

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) rose by 4.8 million barrels last week to 1.292 billion, and SPR stocks were unchanged. Total stocks stand 2 mmb below the rising, rolling 5-year average and 31.4 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 233 mmb above that average.

Total US Petroleum Stocks

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.0 mmbd last week, up 100,000 b/d from the prior week. It averaged 10.700 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 18.0 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 10.736 mmbd, off 17.5 % v. last year, about 2.3 mmb/d lower Continue reading "U.S. Petroleum Inventory Rise 4.8 Million Barrels"