Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract finished up 3 cents at 14.35 an ounce stuck in a three-week consolidation pattern as prices look to be bottoming out in my opinion as the U.S dollar hit a two month low today helping stabilize silver and the precious metals across the board. If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I have been bearish for quite some time however if you are still short a futures contract place the stop loss on a hard basis only at 14.39 which is only 6 cents away as it looks to me that a possible bullish scenario could be developing. If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact, however, if prices rally about $0.10 that would be broken as the chart structure is excellent due to the low volatility. I could be possibly recommending a bullish position in the coming weeks ahead as the real weakness in silver prices was due to an extremely strong dollar, but that scenario has now changed. Silver prices are trading right at their 20-day moving average, but far below their 100-day as the trend remains lower as the U.S. stock market hit another all-time high today. I have had a bullish recommendation for quite some time as that's where all the interest lies, however, the commodity markets are extremely cheap in my opinion compared to equity prices. I think 2019 could be the start of a lot of bullish trends.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 153.50 while currently trading at 146.05 down over 700 points for the trading week hitting a five-month low. If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I thought prices would fill the April 24th price gap at the 147 level as that did occur this week as I still believe prices will retest major support at 140 possibly next week as Hurricane Florence had no impact on the state of Florida's orange-growing regions. Juice prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis. I've been recommending several bearish positions original from the 163 level while then adding around 154 and if you took those trades continue to place the stop loss at 158.75 on a hard basis as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis next week; therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered. Volatility in juice is still relatively low for such a historically volatile commodity as there are no hurricanes on the horizon which is a fundamental bearish indicator towards prices so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss as I still think there is more downside action to come.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 8.30 while currently trading at 8.44 rallying sharply yesterday on rumors that China was cutting import taxes sending prices sharply higher. I have been recommending a bearish position from the 8.39 level while placing the stop loss on a closing basis at 8.51 as we did cross that level yesterday, but settled under as we are still hanging in there by the skin of our teeth. Soybean prices hit a fresh 10-year low on September 18th at 8.12 as the fundamental picture for this commodity still remains extremely bearish in my opinion with a carryover level of nearly 850 million bushels which is astonishing large coupled with the fact that we will produce around 4.7 billion bushels as the combines will be in full swing this weekend in the Midwestern part of the United States. Soybean prices are now trading right at their 20-day moving average but still far below their 100-day as I will not 2nd guess as I will keep the stop at that level and if we are stopped ouT, look at other markets that are beginning to trend. I also have bearish position recommendations in corn and soybean oil as both commodities have rallied off of recent contract lows but remain in bearish trends.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session up 3 cents at 3.56 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.51 trading higher by 5 cents for the trading week ending on a positive note. I have been recommending several bearish positions the original from around the 3.66 level then adding around the 3.50 level and if you took those trades continue to place the stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 3.69 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis next week as the monetary risk will be lowered tremendously. Corn prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains to the downside as the downtrend line also remains intact as prices hit a contract low on September 18th at 3.42 as I still think that level will be retested once again. I also have bearish recommendations in soybeans, and soybean oil as rumors about China lifting import taxes have spurred this market higher over the several days. I still believe with global supplies as abundant as they are plus a 14.7 billion bushel crop currently being harvested as I write this article as I think those situations are too much for any significant rally to occur.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Soybean Oil Futures

Soybean oil futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 27.76 while currently trading at 28.15 up for the 3rd consecutive session higher by 30 points this afternoon ending the week on a positive note. I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 28.00 level & if you took the trade the stop loss has now been lowered to 28.40 as the chart structure is outstanding as the monetary risk at this point is about $240 per contract plus slippage and commission. If you are not involved in this trade, I would still recommend it at today's price levels as the risk/reward are in your favor as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average and the trend is to the downside as we hit a contract low earlier in the week. However, then rumors about China cutting import taxes have spurred the markets to the upside as I remain bearish. I also have bearish recommendations in corn and soybeans, and I have a bearish bias towards soybean meal prices as short covering pushed soybean oil higher over the last several days, but the downtrend line remains intact so don't 2nd guess and stay short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2911 while currently trading at 2942 higher for the 4th consecutive session hitting another all-time high this week. I continue to sound like a broken record as I remain very bullish U.S. equities. I still think there's a lot of room to run as I've been recommending a bullish position from the 2803 level over the last couple of months and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the two week low standing at 2872. However, in Tuesday's trade that will be raised to 2883 as the chart structure will start to improve lowering the monetary risk. The fundamental and technical picture for the S&P 500 remains very bullish in my opinion as outstanding earnings forecasts continue to push prices higher. This is the only game in town in my opinion as investors want U.S. equities not emerging markets which continue to melt away on a monthly basis as the Trump administration's tax cuts have indeed propelled the stock market higher. The S&P 500 is trading far above it's 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is higher as there is no resistance due to these all-time highs. I still believe we will touch the 3100/3200 level come Christmas time so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss as who knows how high prices can trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the December contract is currently trading at 2156 after settling last Friday in New York at 2219 hitting a fresh four week low continuing its bearish momentum as I am now not involved as I am keeping a close eye on a possible bottoming situation developing. Cocoa prices are trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend is to the downside coupled with the fact that the downtrend line also remains intact as it looks to me that prices will retest the August 6th contract low of 2100 possibly in next week's trade. Large crops coming out of the Ivory Coast coupled with excellent crops being produced in Ghana and Nigeria have put pressure on prices over the last several months as harvest has just begun and still has about six weeks left. This could be the same type of situation developing as coffee as you probably will have to be patient and wait for a seasonal harvest bottom to form. Volatility in cocoa is relatively low as the chart structure is solid as we are starting to enter the high demand season for chocolate and the holiday season is around the bend. The U.S. dollar also hit a two month low this week as I think that will start to be a bullish indicator towards cocoa prices in the weeks ahead so keep a close eye on this market.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the December contract is currently trading at 5.18 a bushel after settling last Friday at 5.11 in Chicago as prices have bounced off of major support around the 4.90/5.00 level which has been hit on a half a dozen occasions over the last 6 months as a bottoming out pattern looks to be at hand in my opinion. If you take a look at the daily chart the downtrend line still remains intact as the volatility also remains high as the trend still is to the downside as we're still trading below the 20 and 100-day moving average as I'm sitting on the sidelines looking at entering into a bullish position in the coming weeks ahead. I believe wheat prices are limited at these depressed levels as we enter the highly volatile winter months as prices have dropped about $0.80 over the last 2 months, but they were unable to crack the critical 4.90 level as I think all of the poor fundamental news has already been dictated into the price as the grain market remains on the defensive. I have several bearish recommendations including corn, soybean oil, and soybeans, but wheat prices can go in an opposite direction so be patient and wait for the chart structure to improve as the risk/reward is not your favor to enter into a bearish or bullish position at this time, but that situation could change in October.
TREND: MIXED - LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Wheat Futures

Coffee futures in the December contract is currently trading at 99.70 after settling last Friday in New York at 99.70 unchanged for the trading week as prices may have bottomed on September 18th at the 95.10 level as I still think coffee prices are in the midst of a bottoming out pattern. If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact, and I believe today's rally was based on short covering. However, the U.S. dollar has now hit a two month low down about 50 points today as that has now been supportive to a lot of the agricultural markets which I have several bearish recommendations especially in the grain market which was also higher across the board. Coffee prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains negative as the true break out does not occur until prices crack the August 20th high of 106.90 in my opinion as coffee prices are still hovering right near a 12 year low. I will be patient while waiting for the chart structure to improve as the risk/reward is not your favor at this time and the harvest Brazil has finally been completed which is a bullish factor towards prices as seasonally speaking this time frame generally creates a bottom, but only time will tell to see if that comes to fruition.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

Do You Add To A Losing Trade? Never add to a losing position because if the position continues to go against you-you have added even more contracts which are all losing money your account will suffer loses much more than 2% and in some case adding positions and never getting out of a losing trade has wiped peoples trading accounts down to zero because of 1 or 2 bad trades. Remember always play for another day you will have losing trades and the good traders manage loses and move on to the next possible trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

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