Crypto Update: It Ain't Over Yet

It was a close call this May with a doom-saying title “Crypto Apocalypse?” where I shared with you an annihilating model for Ethereum and a bearish chart of Bitcoin.

Let us see what happened in the crypto market since then in the chart below.

Crypto Total Market Cap

Source: TradingView

Total crypto market cap had skyrocketed to the maximum of just over $3 trillion last November. Since then, almost ¾ of the total market cap has evaporated on the crypto crash down to $762 billion this June. That hurts!

More than $2 trillion of wealth was destroyed during that collapse. Some people were calling it a “crypto-winter” of the market. All of us have probably noticed that less videos and posts with clickbait titles on “how to become a crypto-millionaire” or new rising stars in the crypto-market have been popping up on social media lately.

In the next market share chart, let's check the status quo of the market leaders.

BTC ETH Dominance

Source: TradingView

During the collapse of the market, the main coin (orange) has managed to increase its market share tremendously from 40% up to 48% on the peak in June. How could that happen as it was bleeding alongside the whole market? The speed of the drop is the main reason.

Bitcoin was falling slower than the rest of the market as some coins, even in top 20 tier, were busted very rapidly. Just look at the second largest coin Ethereum, it was losing its market share badly from 22% down to 15%, a level unseen since last January.

These days, both top coins are moving back to its historic boundaries. So, the status quo of the market remains unchanged. Bitcoin has a small surplus and Ethereum is leaking wounds as it is still in the red. However, the latter could take this chance to bounce off the valley to break up this long standing equilibrium.

Watch the Ethereum merge set for September 19th when the Ethereum completes its transition from the energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a more environment-friendly proof-of-stake(PoS) mechanism.

Do you think Ethereum could take the market share from Bitcoin after the transition to PoS?

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An updated chart of Bitcoin is up next. Most of you accurately predicted the valley of the Bitcoin collapse in the range of $15k-$20k. Kudos to you!

Bitcoin Weekly

Source: TradingView

This is the updated original chart I posted this May when the price of the main coin was close to $35k. The anticipated crash in the second red leg down almost hit the preset target at $12.2k. The price of Bitcoin has halved to revisit the $17.6k level unseen since December 2020.

The Volume Profile indicator (orange) proved the idea that the price should drop huge once it slides into the volume gap area between $29k and $10k. Indeed, the collapse was fast and huge on this trigger. The price is still in that low-volume trap. Moreover, the current rise of the price doesn’t look convincing as it resembles the sideways consolidation pattern ahead of another drop. So, it ain’t over yet.

The recent valley of $17.6k is the minimum target of a possible drop. The earlier preset target based on equality of two red legs down is still intact at $12.2k. Breakdown below $10k would open way in the $4k area according to the Volume Profile indicator.

The breakup back above $29k is needed to restart the bullish cycle for the main coin.

Where do you expect Bitcoin will move next?

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Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev Contributor

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from for their opinion.

2 thoughts on “Crypto Update: It Ain't Over Yet

  1. Bitcoin and Ether are in a sucker’s rally right now. “The other shoe hasn’t dropped yet”. Scaramucci says the bottom is in, yet he has still frozen withdrawals from his Bitcoin heavy fund. If he’s so confident, then he should put his money where his mouth is, and allow withdrawals!

    1. Dear Ed,
      I really appreciate your activity on the Blog.
      Thanks for sharing, so we are on the same page looking for another drop ahead.
      Best regards, Aibek

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