Bitcoin VS Gold VS S&P 500

How does gold and its digital competitor Bitcoin relate to each other?

Gold is a traditional store of value, while Bitcoin from a conventional standpoint is highly risky. Even though the latter was nicknamed "digital gold," we can see from the chart below that it does not act like one.

Which opinion do you support?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Gold BTC USM2 Real IR Quarterly

Source: TradingView

In the above quarterly chart, I combined 5 items:

The gold price is in black bars on scale A. The Bitcoin price is in orange bars on scale B. The U.S. money supply indicator M2 (M2) is in histogram on scale C. The red line represents the U.S. real interest rate (RIR) on scale D. There is a 2-year correlation coefficient of Bitcoin to gold (blue) in the sub-chart. Continue reading "Bitcoin VS Gold VS S&P 500"

Is 'Crypto Spring' Coming?

Last week, crypto enthusiasts got a boost when the crypto market cap almost reached the mark of $1 trillion, the highest level since last November.

That very month, I shared with you the bullish signal in the Bitcoin chart I spotted then. It was a Bullish Divergence on the weekly chart of the main coin.

Below is the distribution of your opinions on that bullish alert.

Poll Results

The "I am Bearish" option had gathered the most votes. The second largest bet was to see Bitcoin bounce back towards its prior consolidation area at $30-$35k. The price of digital gold was $16.5k at that time.

Before we check what happened to the price of Bitcoin since then, let us review the major crypto market.  
Top 5 Cryptos

Source: coinmarketcap.com

These are the five largest cryptocurrencies in the table above. Top coins are monumental at #1 Bitcoin with gain of 26% year-to-date (YTD) and #2 Ethereum with profit of 30% YTD. Binance’s native coin BNB has attained #3 spot (+28% YTD) long ago, surpassing the Ripple, which is now only #4 with gain of 20% YTD. Cardano closes the ranking at #5 with the largest gain of 47% YTD. Continue reading "Is 'Crypto Spring' Coming?"

FTX Disaster Could Be Good For Crypto Market

The disaster we are all still watching play out with Sam Bankman-Fried and his cryptocurrency exchange FTX could actually be suitable for the longer-term viability of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies.

I know it sounds crazy, and if you were an investor who had money in FTX, you are certainly not happy with this, but long-term, the size of the losses incurred by investors in FTX could benefit the crypto market in years to come.

Why?

Since massive losses were incurred, regulators are taking note and investigating what happened.

Sam Bankman-Freid has been arrested and charged with many crimes, including conspiracy, fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance violations.

However, while those charges against him don't have much to do with cryptocurrencies, it is likely that the investigation into how these crimes were committed and, more importantly, how he and his team at FTX were able to evade detection sooner will lead to some changes in the crypto world.

The change I'm referring to, which would boost cryptocurrencies and in some ways turn a bad situation into a good one, would be government oversight and regulation of the cryptocurrency markets.

Since Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the cryptocurrencies came into existence, we have had no legitimate regulation or oversight of the industry.

While some believe that is a good thing, a lot of investors have been hesitant up to this point to jump into the world of crypto because there is limited to zero oversight. And I am not just talking about small retail investors who have sat on the sidelines, but big-time money managers who are not permitted to invest client funds in such investments due to their largely unregulated markets. Continue reading "FTX Disaster Could Be Good For Crypto Market"

Crypto Update: This Major Coin Could Bounce

It is time to update the crypto charts as I spotted one strong alert in a major coin for you.

Let me start with the charts showing the balance of power in the crypto-sphere. The two majors will be first.

Bitcoin vs Ethereum

Source: TradingView

In spite of the so-called “crypto-winter” in the market, these two mastodons have kept their stranglehold on both individual and combined market share.

Bitcoin’s market share (orange bars) remains stable at 40% of the market no matter what. However, it is located on the downside of the range as other coins have taken their place in the sun. The all-time low was recorded at 35% in distant 2018.   

Ethereum’s dominance (black bars) is also solid at 18%. It saw a high market share of 31% at the beginning of its life. Currently, it is exactly in the middle of the range. It's worth noting that moving to a new proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism didn't add power to the second largest coin so far.          

The combined market dominance is solid, hovering around 60%.

Let us move on to the rest of the top ten list excluding stable coins. Continue reading "Crypto Update: This Major Coin Could Bounce"

Bitcoin and Ethereum: No Safety Net

Earlier this month, I updated on the crypto market with a title, 'It Ain't Over Yet". I considered the recent strength in the main cryptocurrencies a "dead-cat bounce" within a classic sideways consolidation with a high probability of resuming collapse.

This time, I spotted new signals as the chart moves to the right building new bars over time. Let us start with the main coin in the weekly chart below.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart

Source: TradingView

The price of Bitcoin moves within large bearish trend channel (black). The top of above-mentioned sideways consolidation within red trendlines did not even approach the resistance, it stays intact.

The RSI indicator could not raise its head to test the “waterline” of 50 level. This means that the market has considered this short-term strength as a "dead-cat bounce" as well.

The chart bar of last week has punctured below the red support. This is a harbinger of another drop. The main coin indeed is looking into the abyss as the strong support appears only after the price halves down. The largest area of the Volume Profile histogram (orange) is located between $9k and $10k. The mid-channel (red dashed) fortifies that support with its intersection.

Your biggest bet last time was the drop of the Bitcoin down to $12.2k, where the second leg down is equal to the first one. It almost coincides with the above-mentioned double support.
The next volume area is located at the $4k level and this option was your least favorite.

This time I added the simple moving average (purple) covering the preceding 52 weeks (1 year). It has been offering a strong support to the price starting from 2020. This year it has flipped to become a strong resistance after the price has dropped below it. The $40k level is the barrier to break to confirm the new bullish cycle.

A rather interesting situation has developed for the main coin. The price should either half down to find support or it should double up from this level to crack the bearish cycle. Continue reading "Bitcoin and Ethereum: No Safety Net"