Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Canadian Dollar


At the end of last month, I called for a substantial upcoming weakness in crude oil as the market could have finished the long-lasting consolidation after the earlier crash from 100+ levels. Indeed, oil lost almost $4 from that time and now is rebounding as markets naturally move in zigzags.

Oil-related currencies also suffer, and in this post, I would like to share with you an exciting chart setup with tremendous profit potential for one of such currency, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) also known as “Loonie” among traders.

Before that, I built a chart to demonstrate the correlation between WTI crude oil and the Canadian Dollar.

Chart 1. WTI futures Vs. Canadian dollar futures: Perfect Correlation

Canadian Dollar
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In the chart above the WTI futures graph is black on the right scale and the Canadian Dollar futures graph (in US$ per 1 CAD) is red on the left scale. I didn’t add any annotations on the chart as you can clearly see that the correlation is just perfect and the most important fact is that the crucial market phases like strong moves and consolidations coincide in time. The Canadian Dollar tends to overshoot WTI amid market strength, but it is quite moderate during market weakness. Continue reading "Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar"

Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Sell In May And Go Away


Last August I posted a chart analysis of one particular commodity market index as I spotted an interesting pattern. As time goes by, we can see how my outlook emerged and after almost a year the market reached another crucial milestone or better yet a decision point.

This index is called The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB). It is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas, and Wheat.

So, if you watch commodities market, then the two charts below could be of strong interest to you.

Chart 1. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Monthly: Failed At Resistance

Sell In May And Go Away
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Above is an update of the earlier chart. The risk/reward that time ($182) favored a long position as the upside target at the major top ($474) promised to cover risk extensively amid oversold market conditions. Continue reading "Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?"

Silver Looks Into The Dark Abyss

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Silver


I hadn't updated the silver chart since February when I warned you that the metal dangerously approaches the support of the Triangle pattern. After that, I posted a gold update as I found an amazing historical similarity there.

There’s been so much water under the bridge since February, but nothing had changed in the precious metals markets until the end of last month when the crucial trigger was pulled.

Below is an updated chart of the silver that I would like to share with you these days as it contains an excellent trading opportunity.

Silver Weekly Chart: Triangle Was Broken Down

LLLL
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Silver could escape from that troubled situation which I pointed out in February as the price briefly punctured the downside of the Triangle pattern (orange) and then happily reversed higher on the back of broad dollar weakness. Continue reading "Silver Looks Into The Dark Abyss"

Gold Update: Old Is "Gold"?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Gold Update


Recently, I was looking for my school notes amongst my old stuff for my eldest daughter to help her understand chemistry as my school teacher was a real fanatic on this subject. During the process, I found many things with memories from my youth, and it prompted me to call my old friends and discuss those handwritten letters that we used to send by messenger. We couldn’t have ever imagined that the digital era would come.

Quite often things from the past can help us today. I decided to dig deep into the past on the gold chart to understand what is happening with our frozen gold market these days. Bingo! He who seeks shall find.

Below is the chart with my annotations to illustrate the findings.

Chart. Gold Quarterly (Logarithmic): This “Vinyl” Could Play Again

Gold Update
Chart courtesy of stooq.com

First of all, I would like you to pay attention to the word “Logarithmic” in the chart title, which is usually abbreviated as “Log” in the chart options. It means that the Y-axis of the chart has log scale, which is nonlinear and commonly used for the broad range of the data. Continue reading "Gold Update: Old Is "Gold"?"

Disney Could Rally After A Long Pause

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Disney


In February my respected fellow author Noah Kiedrowski recommended that you to take a look at The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and supported his view with an extensive analysis of the company, which has quite a positive outlook and sound fundamentals. He has been covering Disney for some time on the Blog and I am sure his focused research could let you find quite useful data about the company.

I spotted an interesting long setup on the Disney chart recently, which confirms Noah’s February outlook and I am happy to share it with you in this post. Now you will have his background analysis augmented with my technical outlook for a 360⁰ view.

Chart: The Walt Disney Company Monthly: Finishing Triangular Consolidation

Disney
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

After examining the long-term chart of this fantastic company, I understood why my colleague admires Disney so much. This stock is like other great companies that are moving all the way up with quite long consolidations. The previous one was observed from 1998 till 2009 with seesaw moves of the wide range between $13 and $44 marks. After it broke loose, the stock just rocketed to the sky-high level at the $122 in 2015 with just minor pullbacks. The RSI then has reached an extremely overbought level at the 88 mark. Continue reading "Disney Could Rally After A Long Pause"