Precious Metals Big Picture

While many are talking about major new bull markets in gold, silver and the miners I find it safer to set realistic goals within a still very bullish outlook. After all, we became bullish in November, had to retrench due to over-bullish sentiment and fading fundamentals in February (both situations linked here) and then have been back in the bull seat since the gold stock launch as noted on June 3rd.

The point being, I have nothing to prove to you; nothing to woo you and tempt your greed impulse about. NFTRH has simply called the sector in line with its fundamentals and technicals, and that is what we continue to do as of this day. We chart 20 quality miners (+/-) each week and note short-term targets, resistance, etc. for the miners, gold and silver routinely.

The other priority is to stay on top of the still-bullish fundamentals. Most recently silver joined the party and is probably slamming our favored theme into gear, which is for it to take over leadership from gold and potentially lead the macro to a future inflationary cycle. Easy now, that is still in the realm of potential, not yet reality. But all of this fun – and it has obviously been fun lately – takes place against a big picture that is lumbering along at its own pace.

What I like best is that due to the big picture view I can put forth a conservative 2019 plan, and it still calls for a minimum of another 70% upside for the HUI index. Within that, many of the miners we track will do much better. And within that, we have not even seen the speculative end wake up yet. Those would be the little TSX-V type penny stock bottle rockets (lottery tickets) that pull 400% rallies out of nowhere when they finally get played.

Okay, let’s reel it into the lumbering big pictures on HUI, gold, and silver. As noted, there will be bumps and pullbacks along the way. Monthly charts are not preferred for managing those situations so we’ll stick with the dailies and weeklies in NFTRH reports. But with the ferocity of the current rally (and the fundamentals behind it) it appears a good bet that a second leg to the impulsive ‘A’ leg in 2016 is underway after the beautiful consolidation that killed everyone’s spirits (as it should) since 2016. Continue reading "Precious Metals Big Picture"

Gold Bugs, How Deep Is Your Love?

The title of my previous update was “Calm Before Storm”, and it was not “clickbait” as I spotted a telling market structure that appeared on the chart as a huge visible consolidation had emerged.

Indeed, a sharp move higher followed that post after the consolidation mentioned above had broken out. That move was strong enough to overcome the barrier of the potential triangle’s resistance above $1360. This has invalidated the second option (green arrows) of intermediate triangular consolidation on our master chart. As time goes by, the dust settles, and the chart structure gets clearer eliminating one option after another until only one single way to go remains.

The gold advanced as high as $1437 so far, let’s see how you felt the market one month ago.

gold

Most of you thought that the triangle’s top could stop the market at the $1360 level, but at the same time, you were optimistic about the gold move although a bit conservative. It is interesting that in second place, the votes were given to an opposite bearish scenario. This confirms the idea that market forces are struggling during consolidation, as trading opinions are polar. There is a Bull Flag’s target on the third place, and it is the closest result so far, my congratulations to those who hit that option.

I cleaned the master chart below for you to focus only on one option, and I extended the view there. Continue reading "Gold Bugs, How Deep Is Your Love?"

Don't Get Trapped By Recent Dollar Weakness

Last week I promised to the reader who commented on the dollar index’s strength under my silver post, that I would write a separate piece about the king currency.

Here we are, and I will start from the very long term chart, and you will see why I answered in my comment that it all depends on which time frame we are looking at as these days as the dollar index is falling. Should we worry about it?

Chart 1. Dollar Index Futures Quarterly: Correction

Dollar
Chart courtesy of STOOQ.com

This is a long-term view of the dollar as almost 50 years passed since 1971. For the whole period, the maximum price was established in 1985 when the dollar index hit 164.7. After that, it dropped like a rock down to the 78.4 in 1992. And then we can see a huge correction that had reached exactly a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 121.5 in 2001. That strength of the dollar turned out to be short-lived as another drop followed. This time it had fallen much faster as it quickly reached the former trough and after a small consolidation, the index slid further down to a new four-decade low of 71.1 in 2008 amid the financial crisis. Continue reading "Don't Get Trapped By Recent Dollar Weakness"

Are You Waiting Crude Oil At $20?

Last month the crude oil futures hit the target much earlier than it was planned. When the target was reached, I started to think of a reversal to come as the overall structure of the chart implies it. This thought was based on the deep retracement of the price, the overall completion of the pullback, which hit the broken resistance, and not in the last place due to the 100% progress of the CD segment (CD=AB). I shared it with you along with the crucial downside triggers in the weekly chart of my earlier post.

Let’s see how you felt the market those days in the last ballot’s results below.

Crude Oil

You are just amazingly accurate in predicting the future! Again, the majority of you were absolutely right as crude oil futures established a new high of $66.60 beating the earlier top of $64.8 for almost two dollars. I am very grateful to all of you who read my posts here at INO.com and support my chart experiments with likes and votes.

Let’s move on as the weekly chart below shows that not only the new high was established. Continue reading "Are You Waiting Crude Oil At $20?"

Bitcoin Duplicates Gold Chart

“It's not gods who make pots” as investors move the market, pushing the buttons and sending the orders to the marketplace. It’s clear that they tend to behave one way or another, and that’s why patterns exist and appear from time to time as “there is no new thing under the sun.” It doesn’t matter what the instrument is it, let it be a very old commodity or a new digital asset, it is people who “worship” it, make it valuable and move the price of it.

Bitcoin caught the hype again recently after a disastrous 2018 when it was just falling all way down. I would like to share with you an interesting similarity in the chart structure of “perpetual” gold and Bitcoin aka “new gold” to find out if this rally is a part of something bigger.

Do you think Bitcoin is a good investment?

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Let’s start from the monthly gold chart as it is a model for the Bitcoin chart. Continue reading "Bitcoin Duplicates Gold Chart"