Gold & Silver: Expected Drop Kicked Off

It was a timely call last week to "Beware Of Extended Consolidation" as right from last Monday we saw both metals plummet all the week long. Surely, it wasn't a self-fulfilling prophecy as the market was unexpectedly caught in a bullish euphoria. The chart structure was telling us about this possibility as such patterns appear from time to time. The same pattern had appeared on the Bitcoin chart as I had warned you this past August. That pattern of extended consolidation smashed Bitcoin’s value as planned from $10600 down to the projected target of $7800. Let's see where this pattern could send precious metals prices this time around.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Undershot => Overshot

gold silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

We've got the tricky junction between two legs down on the gold chart. The triangular structure (blue) had been shaped as lower peaks, and higher valleys were established there. This pattern is rarer than the regular zigzag that I was expecting to unfold. It created a huge undershot to the top of the range, which might result in a big overshot below the bottom of the range. By the way, gold already dropped like a rock to pierce the valley of the range last Friday. But, of course, that's not enough. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Expected Drop Kicked Off"

Gold & Silver: Beware Of Extended Consolidation

Gold and silver chart structures got synchronized, and I am happy to bring them back together in this post.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: $1557=>$1458

gold silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In my earlier post, I shared with you a detailed 4-hour chart of gold with a bullish outlook. Fortunately, the price had indeed gone higher and booked $27 per each ounce since then. I set the confirmation above $1520, which wasn't triggered yet, although we were very close as a high was hit at $1518 at the end of October. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Beware Of Extended Consolidation"

Gold Update: $1616?

Last month, after gold had missed our primary target of $1577 and then started to collapse, I wondered if "A Bear Face Was Showing Up?". The price was still above the trendline support, although it dipped below $1500. I also spotted the potential reversal Head & Shoulders pattern, which was adding to the possible Bear Face.

Let's see below what you had been expecting from the market these days.

Gold

The most of your votes in the earlier ballot were for the "No" option, which means you didn't think that gold had topped already keeping bullish outlook, no matter what. The thing is that we don't know the right answer yet, as none of the triggers were pushed. To remind you, the Bearish confirmation is only below $1400, and the Bullish one is above $1557.

I want to share with you the anatomy of the failed Head & Shoulders pattern below to show what has gone wrong for educational purposes in the 4-hour chart below. Continue reading "Gold Update: $1616?"

Copper Update: Compressed Spring Could Snap Back Hard

I’ve had a bearish outlook for copper for the past 2 years, starting with my post back in September 2017 when I had doubted the metal’s ability to sustain a long-term rally. Last July, we got the final confirmation of the trend reversal to the downside. And this past February I shared with you a promising trading opportunity, which had appeared in the copper market as the short-term upward correction invited the bears to sell the copper again around $3.

Indeed, copper has plummeted since then reaching the $2.48 low at the start of this month, but the following rapid bounce into the $2.70 area signaled a possible reversal ahead.

Let’s check the charts below to see if we can find some clues behind this worrisome price action.

I start with the weekly chart as I spotted a bullish pattern there already.

Weekly Cooper Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

As I said above the price printed the low of $2.48 and quickly reversed then. I added the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% to the chart, and you can see now that the price bounced right off it. In my February post, I applied AB/CD segments to set the target area for an anticipated drop and even used the extension ratio, where the CD is even larger than the AB segment. Continue reading "Copper Update: Compressed Spring Could Snap Back Hard"

Semiconductor Sector; A Market & Economic Leader

The signals have persisted since the May lows in the Semiconductor sector and in the broad markets. Nominal Semiconductor (esp. Semi Equipment) stocks and the sector’s market leadership have remained intact into our window for a projected cycle bottom, which was the 2nd half of 2019.

This post shines a favorable light on the Semiconductor sector while at the same time acknowledging that may have little to do with the broad market’s fortunes as Q3’s reporting begins next month. In other words, while we have been projecting new highs for the S&P 500 on the very short-term, there are fundamental and technical reasons to believe the stock market could be significantly disturbed in Q4. But the Semi sector is an economic early bird. Let’s remember that.

Reference first…

Nearly $50 Billion in Fabs to Start Construction in 2020

By the end of the year, 15 new fab projects with a total investment of US$38 billion will have started construction and 18 more fab projects will kick off construction in 2020. Of the 18, 10 fab projects with a total investment value of more than US$35 billion carry a high probability. The other eight, with a total investment value of more than US$14 billion, are weighted with a low probability of materializing.

See also… Continue reading "Semiconductor Sector; A Market & Economic Leader"