The bellwether SP 500 traded completely inside of last Monday's trading range from Tuesday through Thursday of last week, indicating near-term investor indecision, before staging a tentative move to new all-time highs on Friday. Friday's move to new highs, despite a sharp downward revision in Q4 2014 GDP and amid worries about Russian intervention in Ukraine, was an impressive show of bullish investor conviction and is characteristic of a market that wants to go higher. Continue reading "Will These Obstacles Slow The Market's Bullish Trend?"
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U.S. Economic Growth Lowered To A 2.4 Percent Annual Rate
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate last quarter, sharply less than first thought, in part because consumers didn't spend as much as initially estimated.
Severe winter weather is expected to further slow the economy in the current quarter. But as temperatures warm, most economists think growth will rebound beginning in the spring.
The Commerce Department on Friday reduced its estimate of economic growth in the October-December quarter from an initial 3.2 percent annual rate. The revised estimate of 2.4 percent annual growth is the weakest quarterly showing since the first quarter of 2013.
A key reason for the downgrade was that consumer spending is now estimated to have expanded at a 2.6 percent annual rate, below the initial estimate of 3.3 percent though still the strongest quarterly spending by consumers in nearly two years. Continue reading "U.S. Economic Growth Lowered To A 2.4 Percent Annual Rate"
Is The Recent Economic Slowdown Temporary?
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted Thursday that some recent economic data have pointed to weaker-than-expected gains in consumer spending and job growth. She said the Fed will be watching to see whether the slowdown proves only a temporary blip caused by severe winter weather.
Yellen told the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed will be alert to upcoming data to make sure that the economy keeps strengthening.
"We have seen quite a bit of soft data over the last month or six weeks," Yellen said. "We need to get a firmer handle about how much of the softer data can be explained by the weather."
Responding to a question, Yellen repeated the Fed's assurances that its pullback in stimulus for the economy is "not on a preset course" and could be modified if there was a "significant change" in the Fed's outlook. The Fed is gradually reducing its monthly bond purchases, which have been intended to keep long-term loan rates low to encourage spending and growth. Continue reading "Is The Recent Economic Slowdown Temporary?"
How to Find Wild Flowers in the Weeds
The Gold Report: In January, the exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD:NYSE.Arca) outperformed its silver counterpart, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV:NYSE.Arca), by about 6%. Should investors expect gold to outperform silver for the entire year?
Michael Fowler: Gold and silver are going to perform in tandem this year. Gold is in a corrective phase at the moment. I expect it to average around $1,300/ounce ($1,300/oz) and silver to average about $21/oz. We expect gold and silver prices to increase into 2015.
TGR: We've seen a bevy of bought-deal financings to start the year. Some, like Luna Gold Corp. (LGC:TSX; LGC:BVL), are financing below current market prices. Could you provide us with some insight as to what's happening there? Continue reading "How to Find Wild Flowers in the Weeds"
Rising Rates Are Coming -- Here's How To Prepare
If you racked up big gains in the stock market last year, you have Ben Bernanke and his cohorts at the Federal Reserve to thank.
The SP 500's 29.6% gain in 2013 (32.4% when dividends are included), which was the best year since 1997, was largely based on comments made by the Fed in December 2012.
Back then, the economy was so weak that the Fed committed to keep the federal funds rate at historic lows in place until at least the middle of 2015, even later than many economists had assumed. Against such a favorable interest rate backdrop, stocks faced little resistance.
Indeed, throughout 2013, the likelihood of an imminent increase in the federal funds rate remained off the table. And three Fed governors even suggested in December that interest rates would remain untouched into 2016.
But in the early months of 2014, the Fed playbook is starting to look different. The recently released minutes from the past Fed meeting in late January show that some Fed governors are getting anxious. As The Wall Street Journal noted recently, Fed governors have begun discussing "the possibility of rate hikes in the near future." Continue reading "Rising Rates Are Coming -- Here's How To Prepare"
