A number of market participants have begun making year end predictions about where they believe stocks will finish. The predictions have the market finishing higher, lower, a lot higher, a lot lower, and right where it is today. Basically, no one really knows how the stock market will finish 2017 because no one can accurately predict the future.
But, when we look at the past, predictions have been made which aren’t as optimistic. Based on historical data a Goldman Sachs analyst has noted that when stock valuations have been where they are today, the market returns have been in single digits or negative.
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses market reactions post-Brexit vote.
To truly appreciate market crashes, you must have an ample serving of grey hair.
Over the weekend, I must have received three dozen "Emergency Email Alert" notifications by newsletter services and financial intermediaries that got absolutely obliterated Friday morning and were expecting more of the same on Monday, which they got in spades. This new generation of "wealth advisors" has, unfortunately, been living off the largess of Central Bank guarantees and the winks and nudges of the "Finance Ministers" and "Treasury Secretaries" and "Chancellors of the Exchequer," where they make investment decisions based not upon analyses of balance sheets or income statements but upon the collective wisdom of Champagne Socialists. I have been writing about this for about thirty-five years and while it has not yet manifested itself in the advance of the prices of precious metals to levels that would correspond to the level of coinciding currency debasement, especially in the United States and Europe, it is going to be the "Talk of the Town" here in 2016. Continue reading "Following Brexit, Central Bank Desperation Never More Evident"→
The major indices continue to be in “thin air” as the choppy market action I predicted last week continued this week. I would not be surprised to see further choppy action this coming week as the fight between the bulls and the bears continue.
Here are the major resistance points on a close-only basis that I see each for each of the major indices.
Yesterday, the spot gold market flashed a major trend change to the upside. Major trend changes do not occur that often and when they do I like to pay close attention to them. The signal came in at $1,331.45, and even though gold is now lower than that point, it is still a valid signal.
With all the Trade Triangles now positive and the fact that we are seeing a pullback today in gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO), this may be an ideal time to get long gold in the ETF SPDR Gold Shares (PACF:GLD), a leveraged ETF, or in futures.
The current pullback on the intraday 15-minute chart puts this market back into a Fibonacci support area which should offer good support. With the long Fourth of July weekend, I do not expect anybody will want to be short this market going in to the weekend. I expect to see some recovery later today from the lows seen this morning.
There are no guarantees in trading, but with all of the Trade Triangles positive on gold, I feel this is a fairly low risk trade on the upside. As always, you should protect your position with money management stops. If you'd like to learn more about money management stops, you can read about them here.
Today, I will be examining the Perfect ETF Portfolio and what it has achieved for investors over the past several years. This portfolio is specifically designed to avoid risk and provide a modest return. It is appropriate for IRAs and Roth retirement portfolios using ETFs. This portfolio is our most conservative portfolio and is designed to steadily plod along and protect capital with less risk than an outright position in the S&P 500 index.
With the Perfect ETF Portfolio, we track just four ETFs in non-correlating markets. You would divide your capital into four parts and trade equal dollar amounts in each of the ETFs.
GLD - SPDR Gold Shares Trust
This investment seeks to replicate the performance and net of expenses of the price of gold bullion. The trust holds gold and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
USO - United States Oil
This investment seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil.Continue reading "The Perfect ETF Portfolio Results For 2013"→