There's no doubt that the dramatic 800 point rally we have seen the past three days is practically unprecedented, but did it change the major trend of the market?
The simple answer is no, the longer-term trend for the equity markets at the moment remains negative. But please don't misunderstand what I'm saying, I was as surprised as anybody at the velocity of the rally which exceeded the Fibonacci retracement levels I discussed recently.
Today should be an interesting day to say the least, and I doubt seriously that the market can close higher and would expect to see some sort of pullback from the current levels. There is also what I would consider to be a major resistance based on the highs that were hit on Feb. 1st at the 1939 level on the S&P 500. Providing that level holds, we are still basically in a downward trending market, albeit a choppy one.
The pullback in gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) appears to be consolidating, which is good given its rapid move to the upside. In an ideal world, I would like to see gold continue to consolidate around the $1200 level before once again moving higher. I still believe that gold has broken the back of its four-year bear trend and has now embarked on a long-term bullish trend that could take it to the year 2020. Be sure to watch the Trade Triangles for signals that gold has once again embarked on an upward move. Continue reading "Bull Market Or Bear Market, Which Is It?" →
Welcome to the first day of trading in February. If it is anything like January, it's going to be quite a month.
After the close today, Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) will announce its earnings. If it is a blowout and Google surges $25, it will then become the most valuable company in the world - not bad for a company that was founded on September 4, 1998 and has only been around for 17 years. It took Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) which was founded April 1, 1976, almost 40 years to become the world’s most valuable company.
Today, Google flashed a buy signal putting both the monthly and weekly Trade Triangles in unison. That indicates there are good odds that Google will beat its earnings estimates after the close. There are no guarantees, but the odds would favor being long Google before the close.
Let's take a look at the rest of the markets which are not having such a good time of it. The dramatic rally on the last day of trading in January was more a function of short covering than anything else. Most stocks and indices are in a longer-term bearish trend based on MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology. Continue reading "Can Google Overcome Apple As The Most Valuable Company In The World?" →
Yesterday Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve Board, did exactly what I expected her to do and that was nothing. As I have said many times, the Fed is out of bullets and out of options.
If you have practically zero interest rates, how much lower can you go?
It's the end of the week and things could get very ugly in the market today. Earlier this week I talked about not getting suckered into the fake rally as the major trend in the indices was and still is on the downside. Today may prove that I was right and here's why. Continue reading "It's Friday And Things Could Get Very Ugly" →
Even before the announcement of non farm payrolls, which is one of the most significant data releases of the summer, the markets were on the decline. One of the reasons for that has to be yesterday's market action, all the indices fell from their best levels of the day and closed at or close to the lows.
Yesterday's close in both the Dow and the S&P 500 was on target to be the lowest Friday close if nothing happened today. The fact that we are down sharply this morning is a huge negative in my book, but is not one that is surprising.
As we go into the long Labor Day weekend look for the markets to be very thinly traded and volatile. I'm looking for a new low Friday close today. The lowest most recent Friday close was 16,559.75 on the Dow and 1,970.89 on the S&P 500. The NASDAQ was the only index to remain above its lowest Friday close yesterday by just a few points. The level to watch in the NASDAQ is 4,717.16, that level represents the lowest most recent close on a Friday. Continue reading "It's Friday And Things Could Get Ugly" →
This week has been one for the history books and it's not over with yet, we still have today's action to contemplate. So what has the market really accomplished this week? Well, it has frustrated both the bulls and the bears, that's for sure. It's hard to believe that after all of this chop that the Dow is only up 1.18% for the week if it closes where it is currently trading (and less than that on the S&P 500).
What does all of this choppy action mean? Has the market topped out? Is this a "dead cat bounce"?
Let's just let all the dust settle and see what is going on in the major indices for the week and the month.
Last week the major indices closed at: Continue reading "Choppy Action and a Dead Cat Bounce" →