COVID Vaccine News Boosts Stocks

On Monday, Pfizer's news that the COVID vaccine it is developing with BioNTech was more than 90% effective in a trial pushed stocks to record levels with all three of the major indexes triggering new green weekly Trade Triangles indicating that long positions could be in order. But after that significant move higher, the market came back to earth a bit with mid-week weakness.

However, the indexes end the week on a high note with the DOW gaining +1.3%, S&P 500 +1.1%, and the NASDAQ will post a daily gain of +.63% on the day.

The DOW leads the pack with a weekly gain of +4% as investors dumped tech and bought the cyclical stocks that would benefit from an economic comeback next year. The S&P 500 gained +1.9% on the week, and the NASDAQ was unable to get into positive territory, losing -.78% for the week. Continue reading "COVID Vaccine News Boosts Stocks"

Options: Positive Returns Despite Volatility

Despite the major averages being in correction territory in September followed by a volatile October, ending with a massive sell-off and heightened election volatility during the first week of November, realized gains were generated. Following the 10 rules in options trading throughout the recent market volatility has generated positive returns in all three market scenarios.

Defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing returns is the core of options trading. All of this, combined with a statistical edge, provides smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. The results over the course of September, October, and the first week of November demonstrate the durability and resiliency of options trading as a means to drive portfolio results.

An agile options based portfolio is essential to navigate these pockets of volatility. The recent September correction, October nosedive, and election volatility are prime examples of why following the 10 rules of options trading is key to an effective long term options strategy. Overall, in May, June, July, August, September, October, October, and thus far in November, 149 trades were placed and closed. An options win rate of 97% was achieved with an average ROI per trade of 7.5% and an overall option premium capture of 88% while outperforming the broader market despite the September correction (Figures 1 and 2).

Options

Figure 1 – Overall option metrics from May 2020 – November 6th, 2020
Continue reading "Options: Positive Returns Despite Volatility"

Best Election Week In Decades For S&P 500

By gaining an impressive +7.1% for the week, the S&P 500 will post its best election week gain since 1932, where it gained +11.6% when Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated President Hoover in 1932. Not to be outdone, the DOW will also post a weekly gain of +7%, and the NASDAQ will lead the pack with a gain of +8.8%. But even with these gains, all three indexes have yet to trigger new green weekly Trade Triangles signaling a move back to long-term long positions.

Will Friday's pause lead to a sell-off net week, or does the stock market move higher from here?

As the election results continue to drag out, the dollar came under attack, going -1.7% on the week, triggering a new red weekly Trade Triangle indicating that a move to a long-term downtrend could be gaining strength. That move in the dollar proved to be a positive catalyst for gold, which posted its best weekly gain since July of 2019, posting a gain of +4%. Continue reading "Best Election Week In Decades For S&P 500"

Stocks Have Worst Week Since March

As we head into Friday afternoon trading and the last trading day of October, the stock market is headed for its worst week since March of this year. Why? There are a few reasons, it's been a difficult week in which coronavirus cases are on the rise both here in the U.S. and Europe. U.S. fiscal stimulus talks broke down in Washington D.C. and traders are bracing for volatile swings during next week's election. How long do you think this volatility will last?

On a weekly level, all three indexes are having their worst week in 7 months. The S&P 500 will post a weekly loss of -6%, the DOW's loss stands around -7%, and the NASDAQ will post a loss of around -5%. Continue reading "Stocks Have Worst Week Since March"

Trade Triangles Signal Volatility Ahead

We are exactly one week away from the 2020 Election, and we have seen a serious spike in COVID-19 infections not only in the U.S. but around the world, which has led to a spike in market volatility.

If you have your Trade Triangle alerts set for the major indexes that we track, you were alerted on Monday that the DOW issued a new red weekly Trade Triangle when it fell -2% on the day, signaling that it was time to head for the sidelines. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ joined the party today, with both indices issuing new red weekly Trade Triangles and falling over -2% on the day. Continue reading "Trade Triangles Signal Volatility Ahead"