Federal Reserve News Sparks Market Rally

Hello traders everywhere. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve is closer than expected to ending its balance sheet unwind. The Fed's decision is a key consideration for investors as they gauge the extent to which the central bank will tighten its monetary policy moving forward.

Federal Reserve News

That news has spurred the stock market higher with all three major indexes up over one percent on the day. This week ending push higher could help all three indexes finish with weekly gains. As it stands right now the DOW is in positive territory with a weekly gain of +.50% marking it's fifth straight weeks of gains, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are just barely sitting in negative territory.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

Early Stock Market Gains Fade

Hello traders everywhere. What looked to be a positive day for the stock market has quickly turned negative. The DOW was up as much as 296 points in early trading, all but erasing Tuesday's losses, only to fall into negative territory as afternoon trading commenced. Tuesday saw the worst single-day losses for the stock market since Jan. 3 of this year with all three indexes losing over one percent, ending four straight days of gains. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading in negative territory as well.

Stock Market

The U.S. dollar has flattened out this week after posting a weekly gain last week, the first weekly gain in four weeks. Uncertainties over trade and the global economy will probably keep the dollar in a tight trading range.

Crude oil has had back to back daily losses over 1%, and it issued a new red daily Trade Triangle on Tuesday at $52.37 signaling that a short-term sidelines position is in order. Oil has shed The reason for the move lower, weak Chinese and South Korean economic data and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its forecasts for the global economic growth to 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020. Continue reading "Early Stock Market Gains Fade"

Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019

As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit HoleNFTRH 535

Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019

This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical upturn.

The prime Semi Equipment names we follow are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). Well over a year ago we used their failing leadership to the broad Semi sector as a leading indicator on the economy, and things finally came to a head in October 2018. We made note of how industry advocates have been lobbying hard for the Trump Administration to re-think its trade tariffs as relates to Semiconductors.

My question has been over the last year and still is… ‘is the Semi Equipment downturn a real cycle or just a cyclical interruption?’ Reference… Continue reading "Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading lower by $10 at 1,282 an ounce as prices have been stuck between 1,290 / 1,300 over the last two weeks due to extremely low volatility. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you are involved in that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1,278 as the chart structure is excellent, but for the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the January 4th high of 1,300. I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and platinum as palladium has exploded to the upside once again today hitting another all-time high and that indeed is the leader out of this complex. I'm hoping that will start to bleed into the other precious metals. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher, and I still think a breakout above 1,300 is looming so continue to play this to the upside. I will be possibly looking to add more contracts if that situation occurs as the risk/reward would still be in your favor
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Proposed China Deal Boosts Stocks

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market got a late morning boost when Bloomberg reported that a China deal may be close. China has offered to go on a six-year buying spree ramping up imports from the U.S., that move would reconfigure the relationship between the world's two largest economies, according to officials familiar with the negotiations.

By increasing goods imports from the U.S. by a combined value of more than $1 trillion over that period, China would seek to reduce its trade surplus, which last year stood at $323 billion, to zero by 2024. The officials asked not to be named as the discussions aren't public.

That news has propelled the major indexes to their highest levels of the week and capping off the fourth straight week of gains. The S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ will all post weekly gains of +2.9%. However, they still have some work to do to trigger new green monthly Trade Triangles.

China Deal

For the first time in four weeks, the U.S. dollar is posting a gain, currently standing at +.74%. The dollar was boosted by news of the China deal, positive manufacturing data showing the biggest gain in ten months, and comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Williams called for "patience and good judgment" before raising rates, adding he expects "strong" and "healthy" economic growth for this year. Continue reading "Proposed China Deal Boosts Stocks"