Category: General

6 Reasons to Become Bullish Now

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

I was not the first guy to get bearish in 2022, but by May I got the memo just in the nick of time. This led to a major shift in my portfolio that allowed me to profit on the way down. And I have been steadfastly bearish since.

But just like the Fed, my outlook is “data dependent”. And recent data has me becoming less bearish. Note that is not the same thing as becoming bullish.

Why the change of heart? And what does that mean for trading strategy going forward?

Read on below for the full story…

Market Commentary

First, let’s start with some important terminology. Less bearish is quite different than being bullish.

Imagine that I previously saw 80% odds of bear market and lower stock prices in 2023. Thus, only a 20% possibility of bull market.

Given recent information my view has shifted down to about 65% bearish probability versus 35% bullish. That is nearly 2 to 1 in favor of bear market forming… just a notch less bearish than before. The next logical question is…

Why still bearish?

You have already me talk non-stop since last May about all the reasons to be bearish. That is overflowing in my article archive. Plus my most recent presentation puts that all into perspective in a nice concise way: Stock Trading Plan for 2023.

Now we are going to flip over this coin and talk about the bullish view. It is hard for me to say it in a straight forward manner. Instead, I am going to flush out all the individual ideas that point in a bullish direction…the sum total of them is still less likely than the bearish thesis playing out. Continue reading "6 Reasons to Become Bullish Now" →

Stock Buyers Beware!

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

The bull vs. bear tug of war is at another critical juncture as they battle over 4,000. The two previous skirmishes were won by the bears.

I am referring to the big rallies that ran out of steam in mid August and early December. The hawkish Fed was the main catalyst each time to swing things back to the downside.

Will that be the case once again after the February 1st Fed announcement?

That is the topic that most deserves our attention at this time, and will be the focus of this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.

Market Commentary

The boiled down version of today’s commentary can easily be labeled: Stock Buyers Beware!

That’s because price action is saying one thing…but fundamentals are saying another with the final verdict likely coming after the 2/1 Fed announcement.

Now let’s go back to the starting line by evaluating this picture of where we stand now with a possible breakout above the long-term trend line. Also known as the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 in red below.

Yes, it appears that we have a break out forming at this time. However, see how similar events happened back in late March and late November before the bears took charge once again.

Chartists will also note that this is still quite bearish. First, because we are officially in a bear market. We would need to cross above 4,189 to state that a bull market was in place.

Second, we have a series of lower highs which is a negative trend until it is officially reversed.

To be clear, this could be the forming of the new bull market. And you should never fully ignore the wisdom of the crowd as it appears in price action. Continue reading "Stock Buyers Beware!" →

3 Energy Stocks To Load Up On In 2023

Posted on by The MarketClub Team

While it is broadly expected that the pace of interest rate hikes may be dialed down to 25-basis points, concerns over terminal interest rates being higher than expected and its effect on the U.S. economy have kept markets on edge.

With the likely less aggressive but drawn-out interest rate hikes by the Fed expected to add further stress to subdued corporate performance, the stock market volatility is expected to continue in the foreseeable future.

Hence, it could be wise for investors to increase exposure to instruments and assets whose prospects are robust enough to remain relatively unaffected by the turbulence.

Are embargoes on commodities such as crude oil effective as a political tool?

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With supply constraints due to turbulent geopolitics and extreme weather events acting to keep demand robust, global energy consumption is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2023 as many countries use fossil fuels to manage their energy transition.

Henry Hub Spot Price

Source: https://www.eia.gov/

Continue reading "3 Energy Stocks To Load Up On In 2023" →

This Airline Stock is Expecting a Strong 2023

Posted on by The MarketClub Team

The last few years have been difficult for the airline industry as it was among the biggest losers when the pandemic first hit in early 2020. However, with lesser restrictions on travel, the airline industry has bounced back strongly and is close to surpassing the pre-pandemic performance levels.

Delta Air Lines, Inc.’s (DAL) earnings and revenue exceeded analyst estimates in the fourth quarter.

Its EPS came 11.9% above the consensus estimate, while its revenue beat the estimate by 6.6%. The company’s operating margin came in at 10.9%, while its adjusted operating margin came in at 11.6%.

DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian said, “Delta people rose to the challenges of 2022, delivering industry-leading operational reliability and financial performance, and I’m looking forward to recognizing their achievements with over $500 million in profit-sharing payments next month.”

Glen Hauenstein, DAL’s President, said, “For the year, we delivered $45.60 billion in adjusted revenue, a $19 billion increase over the prior year, with record unit revenue performance expected to sustain a revenue premium to the industry of more than 110%. Momentum continues in 2023 with strong demand trends, and we expect March quarter adjusted revenue to be 14 to 17% higher than 2019 on capacity that is 1 percent lower.”

The company’s revenue passenger miles for the fourth quarter increased 24.9% year-over-year to 50.47 billion. Its passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 30.8% year-over-year to 18.30 cents.

Also, its total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) increased 23.4% from the prior-year period to 22.58 cents. In addition, its total passenger revenue increased 50.4% year-over-year to $10.89 billion.

For the fiscal first quarter ending March 31, 2023, DAL expects its total revenue to increase 14% to 17% over the same quarter of 2019 and its operating margin to come in between 4% and 6%. Its EPS is expected to come between $0.15 and $0.40. For fiscal 2023, DAL expects its total revenue to increase 15% to 20% and operating margin to rise 10% to 12% over the previous year. Its EPS is expected to come between $5 to $6.

DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian said, “As we move into 2023, the industry backdrop for air travel remains favorable, and Delta is well positioned to deliver significant earnings and free cash flow growth.” Continue reading "This Airline Stock is Expecting a Strong 2023" →

This Warren Buffett Holding Has Upside Potential

Posted on by The MarketClub Team

With retail sales declining more sharply than expected during the holiday month and the third consecutive month of contraction in industrial activity, there is concern on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve may have overcooked it with respect to interest-rate hikes to cool down and contain inflation.

Amid widespread bearish sentiments, it could be wise to bank on fundamentally strong, profitable, and fairly-priced sector-leading businesses, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM).

Headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan, TSM provides integrated circuit manufacturing services globally. This involves manufacturing, packaging, testing, and selling integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices.

The super-advanced semiconductor chips that TSM produces are difficult to fabricate due to their high development costs. Hence, this presents a significant barrier to entry into the competition.

On December 29, 2022, TSM held a 3 nanometer (3nm) Volume Production and Capacity Expansion Ceremony at its Fab 18 new construction site in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP).

TSM announced that 3nm technology has successfully entered volume production with good yields. The company estimates that the technology will create end products with a market value of $1.5 trillion within five years of volume production.

On December 6, TSM updated that in addition to its first fab in Arizona, which is scheduled to begin production in 2024, it has also started the construction of a second fab, scheduled to begin production in 2026.

The overall investment for these two fabs will be approximately $40 billion. When complete, TSM Arizona’s two fabs will manufacture over 600,000 wafers annually, with an estimated end-product value of more than $40 billion.

On November 15, it was revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) spent $4.1 billion to acquire a stake in the world’s largest contract chipmaker during the third quarter. According to SEC filings, the fabled conglomerate bought just over 60 million of TSM’s New York-listed American Depositary Shares at an average price of around $68.56.

Mirroring the positive developments, the stock has gained 16.9% over the past month to close the last trading session at $89.47. Continue reading "This Warren Buffett Holding Has Upside Potential" →