Minimum Wage, Maximum Stupidity

By Doug French, Contributing Editor

The minimum wage should be the easiest issue to understand for the economically savvy. If the government arbitrarily sets a floor for wages above that set by the market, jobs will be lost. Even the Congressional Budget Office admits that 500,000 jobs would be lost with a $10.10 federal minimum wage. Who knows how high the real number would be?

Yet here we go again with the “Raise the minimum wage” talk at a time when unemployment is still devastating much of the country. The number of Americans jobless for 27 weeks or more is still 3.37 million. And while that’s only half the 6.8 million that were long-term unemployed in 2010, most of the other half didn’t find work. Four-fifths of them just gave up.

So, good economics and better sense would say, “make employment cheaper.” More of anything is demanded if the price goes down. That would mean lowering the minimum wage and undoing a number of cumbersome employment regulations that drive up the cost of jobs.

But then as H.L. Mencken reminded us years ago, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Which means the illogical case made by Republican multimillionaire businessman Ron Unz is being taken seriously.

We Don’t Want No Stinkin' Entry Level Jobs Continue reading "Minimum Wage, Maximum Stupidity"

4 Tips For Investors To Learn More About Private Equity

By: Tim Melvin

Tickers: AINV, APO, ARO, KKR

Most individual investors pay very little attention to what's going on in the world of private equity.

The shadowy world of private equity and buyout investing is seen as the province of large institutions and well-heeled big money types -- and of little interest to those looking to catch the next 10 point move in Apple.

It's of even less interest of those middle of the road investors who have some stock and mutual funds in their retirement plans and just do not spend a lot of time thinking about the markets. While most will never have big money invested in private equity funds, tracking this industry should be at the top of every investor's regular activities list.

Popularity Is Not Always Key Continue reading "4 Tips For Investors To Learn More About Private Equity"

Why The Bull Market May Not Be Finished Yet

By: John Kosar of Street Authority

The major U.S. indices were mixed last week, closing on Friday just slightly on either side of unchanged. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and small-cap Russell 2000 were the strongest performers. As long as the May trend of relative outperformance by these two market-leading indices continues, so should the current broad market advance.

The two strongest market sectors last week were consumer discretionary and utilities. My own asset-flow based metric shows that the biggest increase in sector bet-related assets over the past one-week and one-month periods was in utilities, which supports more upcoming strength in this sector.

A strengthening utilities sector is often driven by declining long-term U.S. interest rates, which we saw last week as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined by 9 basis points to 2.53%. This encourages yield-seeking investors to accept more credit risk (via utility stocks) in exchange for potentially higher returns. Therefore, as long as long-term interest rates continue to decline, it should drive more investor assets into utilities and buoy Treasury prices, which move inversely to yields.

Small Caps, Tech Should Continue Leading the Way Continue reading "Why The Bull Market May Not Be Finished Yet"

Inside Look: Check out this Unprecedented Bear Market Formation Since 2000

Think the current conditions in the stock market are normal? Think again. Here are 3 characteristics you should expect to see in wave b.

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's Note: Below you will find a sneak peek from the just-published issue of Robert Prechter's Theorist. It provides you an opportunity to see some of the research, analysis and forecasts that Elliott Wave International's subscribers are enjoying inside their latest issue.

Figure 4 (below) is a diagram from Chapter 2 of Elliott Wave Principle. It displays a typical progression of prices and psychology in a bear market. We can apply this picture to the stock market since 2000. The real-life pattern is a bit more complex than this picture, because wave a itself was a flat correction, which ended in 2009. The dashed line in Figure 4 represents what the market has been doing since then: rallying to a new high in a b-wave. The entire formation has been tracing out an "expanded flat" correction (see text, p.47) of Supercycle degree.

Per Figure 4, among the characteristics we should expect to see in wave b are: "Technically weak," "Aggressive euphoria and denial" and "Fundamentals weaken subtly." The volume contraction in the stock market has now lasted over five years, which is extreme technical weakness, albeit only in that indicator. The 30+ charts we have shown of market sentiment reveal historically high levels of optimism regarding stocks. No doubt bulls would dismiss the idea that investors today exhibit "aggressive euphoria and denial." But look at Figure 5. Continue reading "Inside Look: Check out this Unprecedented Bear Market Formation Since 2000"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract basically finished unchanged for the trading week with very little volatility trading at 1,319 still right near a 3 month high and if your currently bullish this market I would buy a futures contract at today’s price while placing my stop below the 2 week low which currently stands at 1,260 risking around $6,000 per contract, however that chart structure will improve dramatically in the next couple of days as volatility has really slowed down as we enter the Fourth of July holiday weekend. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I’m waiting for better chart structure to develop which is already currently happening and if you’re looking to get short this market I would sell at today’s price while placing your stop above today’s high of 1,325 an ounce risking around $600 per contract as if prices break that level to the upside I would have to think the trend has definitely turned bullish. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the chaos in Iraq is certainly propelling prices in recent weeks as gold had a bearish trend for quite some time actually hitting 1,240 earlier in the month so I’m not totally convinced where prices are going to and that’s why I’m sitting on the sidelines.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"