The first Managed Futures Fund may have actually been established around 1948, but the investment vehicle really became en vogue as Richard Dennis and his infamous “Turtles” gained in popularity. Richard Dennis, although working his way up from a runner, really began his reputation as large trader in the 70’s. The 70’s had crop failures to contend with and inflationary conditions which Richard Dennis could use his trend-trading style to position trade. By 1983, he believed that he could teach his methodology to an average woman/man to trade successfully as he had. He had been quoted by the Wall Street Journal in 1989 saying “We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore” thus coining the name “Turtles”! He selected his 21 men and 2 woman to learn the trend-following system with success, increasing his notoriety and adding some new traders to the spotlight. Actually about 60% of the trades may have lost money getting stopped out while the balance of trades were held with trailing stops to garnish more from the position. Other traders sprang up into the spotlight like Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry. The methodology is proprietary to the trader and never really divulged, so the entries, stops and the targets remain exclusive in most managed products. The trading model may take years to cultivate! Futures trading is a zero-sum game where there is a loss for every gain and vice versa. The challenge for the trader was to create a percentage to his/her favor! Continue reading "The Future of Managed Futures… Past, Present and Future!"
Category: General
Weighing the Risks in International Oil Plays
The Energy Report: Amin, you started your career in the consumer credit industry, where you were involved in risk management at a major bank. How does that translate to the securities industry?
Amin Haque: The company I worked for was MasterCard International Inc., and as director of risk management, my focus was on macroeconomic risk management in international jurisdictions. That gave me a very good foundation for evaluating sovereign, political and currency risks. In my four-year career with MasterCard, I focused on countries in Africa, the Middle East, South America, the Caribbean and the Asia Pacific. These are the same regions where many of the exploration and production (EP) companies I'm interested in operate. My previous experience is proving quite useful as an oil and gas analyst.
TER: When you look at a company, do you consider the jurisdictional risk first?
AH: Jurisdictional risk differentiates a company focused in North America from one that operates internationally. For the latter, geology, exploration history and reserves matter as much as they do for a North American company, but equally important considerations are geopolitical or currency risks. These issues affect operations as well as profit repatriation.
TER: Do you focus on the downside? Continue reading "Weighing the Risks in International Oil Plays"
Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery
We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Energy Futures--- The energy futures this week experienced volatile trading especially in the January contract with heating oil finishing down 1500 points for the week which is around $6000 per contract trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average settling lower for the 5th consecutive trading session closing right around 2.9250 a gallon with the next major support at 2.80 a gallon and in my opinion I do believe heating oil prices are headed lower due to an extremely mild winter so far. There is a gap on the daily chart in the January contract at 2.90 I do believe that gap will be filled which is still about 250 points away and I do think it could head lower here in the short term. Unleaded gasoline is higher by about 90 points this Friday afternoon; however for the week were down around 100 points closing below its 20 and 100 day moving average with next major support at 2.53 a gallon which also is at a 4 month low. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery"
Chart to Watch - SBUX
We've asked our friend Jim Robinson of profittrading.com to provide his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using the Trade Triangles and his experience.
Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX).
I hope you are having a GREAT week !
This week let's take a look at SBUX as big things are going on for that stock.
SBUX has put in a weekly and monthly MarketClub green Trade Triangle which means all systems are GO for higher prices as of right now.
SBUX announced it is planning 1500 new stores in the U.S., and is also planning to remodel older stores. Continue reading "Chart to Watch - SBUX"
Is a Global Gold Supply Crunch Forming?
A number of market analysts and gold-industry insiders are warning about a possible shortage of gold supply. Barrick CEO Jamie Sokalsky recently stated that since gold production is inelastic (i.e., insensitive to price changes) there will be a very limited increase in supply from gold producers, even during sharp increases in the gold price. Rick Rule, a billionaire and avid gold investor, pointed out that while we're seeing spectacular demand, a number of issues will make supply very tight in the future, especially among retailers.
The issues facing gold miners are well known: depletion of existing mines, lower grades, and fewer new discoveries – especially big and rich ones. Further, miners face increased calls for nationalization, demands from workers for higher pay or from local communities for better infrastructure, and – of course – environmental concerns. Many mining company representatives say it's getting harder to not only find large deposits but to get those deposits into production. Some estimate it now takes twice as long as to go from discovery to production vs. a decade ago.
These warnings aren't always taken seriously, especially by those who see that mine production has been growing. At first glance, they're correct – but only if you look at the short-term picture. The following chart shows that global mine production has indeed been rising since 2008. From 2009 through 2011, output rose an average of 3.9% per year. However, we know that a good chunk of this increase is due to China, and upon excluding its output, you can see how it alters the global picture. Continue reading "Is a Global Gold Supply Crunch Forming?"
