It's All out the Window Now

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In the run up to Thursday’s FOMC announcement of open ended ‘asset’ (mortgage debt) purchases, ZIRP extension and Twist continuation, NFTRH had been using the average US presidential election cycle, sentiment backdrop and of course technical analysis to stay bullish (with associated rising risk profile).  We had incorrectly minimized the potential for QE right here and now in the interest of not running with an increasingly over bullish herd and with respect to risk management.

Well, that is all out the window now because the US has apparently conspired with Europe to jointly enter the currency depreciation sweepstakes with the US springing out of the gate to a healthy lead.  Sentiment is becoming dangerous, speculation is breaking out and liquidity warning indicators like the Gold-Silver ratio, US dollar, US Treasury Bonds, TED Spread and LIBOR have all been dispatched on a southward journey in the interest of greed, speculation… and desperation.  This is the moment of maximum hubris by Ben Bernanke and powerful policy makers the developed world over. Continue reading "It's All out the Window Now" →

Gold Chart of the Week

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report (9-17 though 9-21)

Last week brought the final piece of news that the Gold Market needed to not only continue a campaign higher, but also to put the “Gold Bugs” comfortably in the drivers seat. For anyone that trades, owns, or simply follows the price of Gold, the FOMC announcement to bring back Quantitative Easing was very big news.

In short, the FED decided to reinstitute a plan that will involve printing more US Dollars and purchasing debt. They recognized that since late February when QE2 was halted, overall market sentiment had gone cold. The job market has suffered, the real estate and mortgage market has gone flat, overall market sentiment has not improved, and this has left major markets dangerously low in volume. Continue reading "Gold Chart of the Week" →

Beyond the "Spotlight"

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The GBE Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

December 2012 Soybean Oil

The December 2012 Soybean Oil contract has potentially formed a 1-2-3 Top Formation. The contract made a new 12 month high on September 4 at 58.60. This high sets up the number one point of the formation. The market pulled back to 55.68 on September 12. This low sets up the number two point of the formation. Friday, September 14, the contract traded as high as 57.80. If this price holds, it would setup the number three point of the formation. The market sold-off in the afternoon and on the close, so it's likely the market continues to sell-off into Monday's session. A break of the number two point of 55.68 would trigger an entry to the downside. There was a surge in trading volume on days when the first two points of the formation were established. Currently the Trend Seeker (a US Chart Company tool) is Up. This trend could reverse if the market trades through the support level near the number two point. A potential stop loss could be the number 2 point of the formation. Potential targets could be the 51.88 low (8/8/12) or the twelve month low of 48.64 (6/15/12). Continue reading "Beyond the "Spotlight"" →

Daily Video Update: Europe and corporate earnings are weighing on the markets

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Jeremy Lutz here with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 17th of September.

Looks like it's the same ole news coming out of Europe.

A meeting of European Union finance ministers in Cyprus over the weekend resulted in a deadlock over how the region plans to combat the debt crisis, with leaders unable to work past their differences on a banking union, the role of the European Central Bank and the conditions of bailout requests.

Corporate earnings are also weighing on the markets today. Earnings are expected to fall short of expectations in the third quarter and then stage a a fairly dramatic turnaround the rest of this year. Some analysts believe the rebound will last into 2013.

Now, let’s go to the charts and our Trade Triangles and see what’s happening.

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz

Now, let's analyze the major markets and stocks on the move using MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
Click Here to view today's video

Apple's iPhone, Germany, the Fed: Why It's All Irrelevant to the Market's Trend

Posted on by The INO.com Team

A lot of people know that R.N. Elliott discovered the Wave Principle.

Yet few are aware that Elliott made another observation during his years of studying the stock market.

As the Wave Principle forecasts the different phases or segments of a cycle, the experienced student will find that current news or happenings, or even decrees or acts of government, seem to have but little effect, if any, upon the course of the cycle. It is true that sometimes unexpected news or sudden events, particularly those of a highly emotional nature, may extend or curtail the length of travel between corrections, but the number of waves or underlying rhythmic regularity of the market remains constant [emphasis added].

R.N. Elliott, R.N. Elliott's Masterworks, pp. 158-159

What a stunning insight: Even major news does not alter the market's main wave pattern! This seems to defy logic because most people believe that news and events are the very things that drive the stock market. Continue reading "Apple's iPhone, Germany, the Fed: Why It's All Irrelevant to the Market's Trend" →