Potential Oil Glut! Raymond James Analyst's Contrarian Forecast

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The Energy Report: Why are you expecting an oil glut in 2014?

Andrew Coleman: Because of the evolution of North American shale oil plays, we are on track to add about 3 million barrels (3 MMbbl) of new supply over the next five years. Yet we know oil demand has been falling across the developed nations and is still weak coming out of the global financial crisis. Those developments point toward a glut.

TER: Saudi Arabia surprised you last year by cutting production when oil was more than $110 per barrel ($110/bbl). Why would Saudi or other suppliers not do that again?

AC: What hurt production outside the U.S. last year and helped keep the demand side a little more in balance was that Saudi cut 800,000 barrels a day (800 Mbbl/d) in Q4/12, sanctions in Iran reduced exports by about 800 Mbbl/d as well, conflict in Sudan took 300 Mbbl/d offline and the North Sea average was lower by about 130 Mbbl/d. These reductions kept last year's supply more balanced than we thought it would be. Going forward, Saudi's ability or willingness to cut is certainly going to be tested, because by our model the country may need to cut 1.5 million barrels a day (1.5 MMbbl/d), about double what it cut last year. It would have to do that for a longer period of time, given the amount of excess storage that could show up on the global markets.

TER: But, as you just pointed out, Saudi Arabia's cut came in the context of actions by other players. The other players are going to be as unpredictable as they were last year, aren't they? Continue reading "Potential Oil Glut! Raymond James Analyst's Contrarian Forecast" →

The Biggest Mistake You Can Make In Trading

Posted on by The INO.com Team

One of the biggest mistakes we see with traders and investors is this:

They have no game-plan.

This is one of the most important elements in trading and you should not be trading without one. When you have a game plan, it allows you to get in and out of the market in a non-emotional way. So often we see traders jump into markets based on emotion, investment show ideas, or rumors. This is the worst possible way to trade and the quickest way to lose money.

There’s nothing more important to have than a game plan to enter and exit positions in the markets. By creating a game plan, you are setting yourself up emotionally to handle anything that happens in the market. Having a successful game plan, complete with an exit and money management strategy is enormously important. With the kind of volatility that we are seeing in the markets today, not having a game plan is like financial suicide and that is something that you don’t want to do.

Here’s How To Get Started Creating a game plan is very easy and you can do in a matter of minutes. Continue reading "The Biggest Mistake You Can Make In Trading" →

3 Factors That Could Soon Derail The Bull Market

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This article originally appeared on StreetAuthority

These are truly days of wine and roses for stock market investors.

After being knocked down in the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and again during the financial crisis of 2008, long-term investors are being rewarded for their persistence and dedication as stocks surge higher, breaking record after record.

In fact, this bull market turned 4 years old in March and is showing no signs of letting up.

Historically, the average bull market has lasted 4 1/2 years. In and of itself, this means little; for instance, the 1990s bull market lasted nearly seven years without a major correction.

But according to my research, there are three distinct signs that make me think this bull market may be ending soon. Here's what you need to know. Continue reading "3 Factors That Could Soon Derail The Bull Market" →

Is This Stock Bubbling Higher Or Headed For A Bust?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In today's short educational trading video, I'm going to share with you an interesting set-up I see in SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ:SODA).

Here is some fundamental background on SodaStream, courtesy of Wikipedia.

SodaStream is the maker of a consumer home carbonation product based on the principles of making a carbonated drink as originally invented by Guy Gilbey in 1903. The device allows users to take ordinary tap water and carbonate it to create soda water (or carbonated water) to drink. With the addition of one of over 100 different types of concentrated syrups and flavorings produced by Sodastream, owners can create carbonated beverages. After the company merged with Soda-Club in 1998, it was relaunched with an emphasis on healthier drinks. It went public on the Nasdaq stock exchange in November 2010. Sodastream is currently headquartered in Israel, and has 13 production plants.

Judging by the feedback in a private sneak preview of today's video, you won't want to miss this viewing. The video runs about 7 minutes.

Enjoy the video, and every success in your own trading.

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub