The Gold Report: Many of the people we interview have a theory about why gold is performing poorly this summer despite so much global uncertainty, especially in China and Greece. What's your theory?
Joseph Fazzini: Gold typically plays numerous roles, including being a hedge against inflation, devaluation and economic turmoil, but it's still a commodity. Most commodities typically come under pressure in a recessionary environment. Right now, the global economic landscape isn't all that promising, inflation remains minimal and investors prefer other safe-haven investments (i.e., U.S. dollar). As a result, we expect gold to continue performing in-line with most other commodities and remain under pressure.
TGR: How low can gold go? Continue reading "Six Miners Dundee's Joseph Fazzini Believes Will Weather the Storm"
The Gold Report: You've written that the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) could lead to a boom in commodities. We recently saw that South Korea is joining a number of European countries and signing on, despite U.S. reservations. Do you see this as a threat to U.S. fiscal dominance?
Chen Lin: I think this is a first step for China. The country has a huge reserve, $4 trillion, much more than it needs on the balance sheet to stabilize its currency. The rest is wasted, collecting no interest. China made some huge mistakes in the past through poor acquisition decisions because of faulty lending standards. This is a sign that it has learned from its mistakes and wants to make the most of the trillions it has to loan out right now. The bank will operate close to international standards, and because it has many nations involved already, defaulting loans will include less risk.
"Pretium Resources Inc. is a very high-grade, low-cost, exciting story."
This is a test. If it is successful, it can expand to Africa, South America, even Europe and North America. China has trillions of dollars sitting, doing nothing. It wants to find a way to lend money it can almost guarantee to get back and then put the money to use in the form of development. China has a huge infrastructure network capacity, requiring steel and cement. This creates jobs, which is good for the economy. That was the thinking behind the announcement.
If the AIIB is successful, it will be a big boon for base metals, energy, platinum and palladium sectors. It may even boost silver demand and prices because of its industrial use. I don't think it will have too much impact on gold, though.
TGR: Does that include copper? It has been below $3 per pound ($3/lb) all year. Continue reading "Chen Lin's Secret to Finding the Next Goldcorp"
The Gold Report: A recent Raymond James research report refers to silver as the "devil's metal" What is the story there?
Chris Thompson: Silver is much more volatile than gold. Typically when we see a weak day for the gold price, silver has a terrible day. Likewise, if we see a strong day for gold, typically silver delivers exceptional performance. Because it's so volatile, we term it the devil's metal.
TGR: If the selloff in precious metal equities is over and this is the bottom, how long do you expect the flat-lining to persist?
CT: At Raymond James, in the near term we see gold trading rangebound between $1,200 per ounce ($1,200/oz) and $1,300/oz and silver trading rangebound between $16.50/oz and $18.50/oz. We are not seeing fundamentals that would prompt a price outside of those respective ranges. We expect current price strength to continue to the end of Q1/15, followed by some weakness into the summer and then more strength toward the end of the year.
TGR: In a recent research report you warned investors about 2015 possibly being the "Year of the Dodo" for certain precious metal producers. Please explain. Continue reading "Avoid Dodos and Find Gold and Silver Miners that Can Soar"