By the reckoning of market watchers, the silver bull has arrived. The Gold Report takes a look at what some of the experts predict for the silver price going forward and for companies poised to benefit from the upswing.
Like gold, the price of silver has surged following Britain's vote to leave the European Union, with investors purchasing the "safe haven" metals to protect wealth in the event other markets falter. According to an article published on July 19 on INN Daily, the silver price has gone up more than 43% year-to-date, "leap-frogging ahead of gold post-Brexit."
Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, in a July 11 post, notes that silver tops his "Periodic Table of Commodity Returns" for the first half of 2016. "Silver demand had a phenomenal 2015, with retail investment and jewelry fabrication both reaching all-time highs," Holmes wrote. Add to that an increase in demand for silver for photovoltaics, and now Brexit, and the first half of the year has "has been highly constructive. . ." Holmes notes that some experts believe the silver price will reach between $25 and $32 per ounce by year-end. The metal currently trades for ~$19.90/ounce. Continue reading "What Experts Predict for the New Silver Bull Market"→
The two times mining companies add the most value are upon first discovery and when they are nearing development and production. Joe Reagor of ROTH Capital Partners focuses on the latter group, and in this interview with The Gold Report, he discusses a handful of gold and silver companies poised to move up the value curve even if gold and silver don't go up.
The Gold Report: What's your macro outlook for gold?
Joe Reagor: International debt concerns are going to drive gold this year into next year, in our view. A number of countries with mounting debt loads can't continue to pay the interest portion of their debt, let alone ever pay it back. Total world debt continues to increase year after year. If the solution is for everybody to print the money that they need to pay everybody else back with, that's going to be a massive inflationary event, which would bode well for gold.
The Gold Report: A recent Raymond James research report refers to silver as the "devil's metal" What is the story there?
Chris Thompson: Silver is much more volatile than gold. Typically when we see a weak day for the gold price, silver has a terrible day. Likewise, if we see a strong day for gold, typically silver delivers exceptional performance. Because it's so volatile, we term it the devil's metal.
TGR: If the selloff in precious metal equities is over and this is the bottom, how long do you expect the flat-lining to persist?
CT: At Raymond James, in the near term we see gold trading rangebound between $1,200 per ounce ($1,200/oz) and $1,300/oz and silver trading rangebound between $16.50/oz and $18.50/oz. We are not seeing fundamentals that would prompt a price outside of those respective ranges. We expect current price strength to continue to the end of Q1/15, followed by some weakness into the summer and then more strength toward the end of the year.
The Gold Report: In a July research report, you wrote that the ongoing decline from the all-time high in the gold price may represent a correction of the last large up leg, which some say began in 2009 or mid-2008. Or it may represent a correction of the entire 1999 - 2011 advance in the gold price. Which is it? And has that correction run its course?
Tom Szabo: We are in a correction of the 20082011 rally and it is ongoing. Big picture, the gold price needs to drop below $1,155/ounce ($1,155/oz) and then subsequently below $1,067/oz before this would represent a correction of the entire gold cycle that goes back to 1999. We haven't seen such a decline at this point so we can't conclude that it's a larger correction.