Tag: ben bernanke

Fed likely to slow bond buys despite tepid economy

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hiring is soft. Pay is barely up. Consumers are cautious. Economic growth has yet to pick up.

And yet on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to take its first step toward reducing the extraordinary stimulus it's supplied to help the U.S. economy rebound from its deepest crisis since the Great Depression.

If it does, the Fed will likely spark a debate: Has the economy strengthened enough to withstand the pullback?

The answer might not be clear for months.

The Fed is meeting this week at a time of deepening uncertainty about who will succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke when his term ends in January. On Sunday, Lawrence Summers, who was considered the leading candidate, withdrew from consideration. Continue reading "Fed likely to slow bond buys despite tepid economy" →

The Federal Reserve Relies on a Flawed Economic Model

Posted on by admin

By Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Economist

In May 22 testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke issued another of many similar positive interpretations of central bank policy. Yet again, he continued to argue that quantitative easing has decreased long-term interest rates and produced other benefits. He called economic growth "moderate," a term that he has often used without acknowledging that the Fed's forecasts have repeatedly been far above the mark. Within less than two months—or by the time of the July FOMC meeting—the Fed had downgraded the economic growth to "modest," tacitly acknowledging that program of open-ended $85 billion purchases of government and federal agency security purchases had failed to boost economic activity.

The Fed's polices have not produced the much-promised re-acceleration in economic growth. In the first half of 2013 as well as the latest four quarters, the real GDP growth rate was a paltry 1.4%, even less than the 1.9% growth in the 13.5 years of this century, and less than two-fifths  of the 3.8% GDP growth rate since 1790. Only growth in the 1930s was less than in the 2000s, a time when Dr. Bernanke played a major, if not dominant, role in monetary policy decisions. Continue reading "The Federal Reserve Relies on a Flawed Economic Model" →

Hand Off to a New Fed Chair is Well Timed

Posted on by The INO.com Team

It is as notable as a 2nd term president handing off the big problems to the next guy, as George Bush did with Barack Obama in 2008; the changing of the guard at the Fed, that is.

Alan Greenspan oversaw the making of a stock bubble in the final phase of the great bull market ended in 2000.  He then instigated a credit bubble, which launched a housing bubble, made the credit hopped consumer feel wealthy and oh yes, built unsustainable distortions into the system through diced and sliced debt derivative vehicles of all kinds.

Then in 2006 he deftly made the hand off to Ben Bernanke.  Bernanke then dealt with the Maestro’s second aftermath as it began cropping up in 2007 and now, nearly 4.5 years into a cyclical bull market that has another 6 months or so to run if it is to match the two previous cycles (not a given), it is time once again for a hand off. Continue reading "Hand Off to a New Fed Chair is Well Timed" →

Despite Declining Deficit, Foreigners Aren’t Bailing Us Out, So the Fed Will Keep QE Going

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By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

The basic imbalance driving our economy is the government deficit, which spun out of control as a result of the Credit Crisis of 2008/9. But the sequester, improving tax base, lower interest rate, and elimination of stimulus spending have caused the big government deficit, while still extreme, to drop to half its previously nosebleed levels. Continue reading "Despite Declining Deficit, Foreigners Aren’t Bailing Us Out, So the Fed Will Keep QE Going" →

Today's Video Update: Let's Face It, Bernanke Is A Wimp

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Wednesday, the 17th of July.

Let's Face It, Bernanke Is A Wimp
To be fair to Fed chairman Bernanke, he is human and like all humans, he is not perfect. His weakness right now is he just wants to get through the rest of his term, which ends on the 14th of January 2014, and not rock the boat. I think if anyone has said that the QE program (yeah, printing money), now in it's fourth year, would take this long nobody would have believed it, including chairman Bernanke.

The reality is, QE looks like a trade that has gone bad and nobody wants to admit it. It was a bad bet (trade) the Fed made and they all have egg on their faces, but nobody from the Fed is ever going to say they made a mistake with the QE program, including Chairman Bernanke. Like I mentioned earlier, humans are known to make mistakes. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: Let's Face It, Bernanke Is A Wimp" →