Baby Yoda and Phase One Trade Deal Propels Hasbro

Baby Yoda and the phase one trade deal comes to Hasbro’s (HAS) recuse after a disastrous Q3 earnings call that resulted in the stock sinking 17%. Per Brian Goldner, “the threat and enactment of tariffs reduced revenues in the third quarter and increased expenses to deliver product to retail.” I feel that management was remiss when they forecasted their ability to circumvent the tariffs and then used the tariffs as a scapegoat to justify the company missing its numbers on both top-line revenue and bottom-line profit. Now the backdrop has changed in Hasbro’s favor with the phase one trade deal with China being reached and of course, the new internet sensation Baby Yoda.

The company is in a solid position moving into the holiday season, historically their biggest quarter, with blockbusters and the holidays coming into the fold. Hasbro has its Disney toy licensing deal (Marvel, Star Wars and Disney Princess lines) that should have a strong showing with Frozen 2 and the new Star Wars film with Baby Yoda debuting in Q4. Hasbro Studios (Transformers’ Bumblebee, My Little Pony, Power Rangers), E-Sports (Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering), its legacy games (Monopoly and Nerf) and acquisition of Entertainment One earlier this year places the company in a position of strength. Hasbro has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts in the near and long-term time horizons.

Baby Yoda
Figure 1 – Baby Yoda making his appearance last month in The Mandalorian on Disney+

Phase One Trade Deal

The U.S. and China came to terms on a phase one trade deal, benefiting any company that sources and manufactures its products in China. Hasbro has already migrated some of its supply chain away from China as a risk mitigation strategy due to the trade tensions between the two nations. The phase one trade deal provides Hasbro with supply chain flexibility and additional time to make any necessary adjustments to its business model. The previous quarter Hasbro lost momentum and attempted to attribute this to the tariffs. Now, this tariff headwind has been removed for the time being, allowing Hasbro stock to appreciate on the news. Continue reading "Baby Yoda and Phase One Trade Deal Propels Hasbro"

Hasbro Sinks 17% - Tariffs Negatively Impact Q3 Results

So much for Hasbro (HAS) allegedly having a diverse, flexible format supply chain and migrating its legacy supply chain out of China. Per Brian Goldner, “the threat and enactment of tariffs reduced revenues in the third quarter and increased expenses to deliver product to retail.” Needless to say, the stock sank 17% after reporting its Q3 results. I feel that management was remiss when they forecasted their ability to circumvent the tariffs and then used the tariffs as a scapegoat to justify the company missing its numbers on both top-line revenue and bottom-line profit.

With that being said, the company is in a solid-state moving into the holiday season, historically their biggest quarter, with blockbusters and the holidays coming into fold. Hasbro has its Disney toy licensing deal (Marvel, Star Wars, and Disney Princess lines) that should have a strong showing with Frozen 2 and the new Star Wars film debuting in Q4. Hasbro Studios (Transformers’ Bumblebee, My Little Pony, Power Rangers), E-Sports (Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering), it's legacy games (Monopoly and Nerf) and acquisition of Entertainment One earlier this year places the company in a position of strength. Hasbro is fully committed to returning value to shareholders via a combination of share buybacks and dividend payouts. Hasbro has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts in the near and long-term time horizons. The Toys 'R' Us fallout is now in the rearview while the company continues to layer-in growth initiatives.

Q3 2019 Earnings – Disappointing

Hasbro missed on both EPS and revenue coming in at $1.84 (missing by $0.36) and $1.58 billion (missing by $130 million), respectively. The previous two-quarters Hasbro beat estimates handily, and the stock broke through the $120 per share threshold as a result. This quarter, the company lost momentum and is attempting to attribute this to the tariffs.

“Hasbro remains on track to deliver profitable revenue growth in 2019, behind innovation in gaming, toys, and around Hasbro's Brand Blueprint. However, as we've communicated, the threat and enactment of tariffs reduced revenues in the third quarter and increased expenses to deliver product to retail," said Brian Goldner, Hasbro’s chairman and chief executive officer. "The team drove continued growth in the Wizards of the Coast gaming brands, MAGIC: THE GATHERING and DUNGEONS & DRAGONS, and delivered significant new holiday initiatives. To start the fourth quarter, we are seeing a strong consumer response to the global launch of Hasbro's line for Disney's Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker as well as the U.S. launch of the new NERF Ultra." Continue reading "Hasbro Sinks 17% - Tariffs Negatively Impact Q3 Results"

Hasbro's 52-Week High: Well, That Was Easy

Hasbro (HAS) is fresh off Q2 2019 earnings after turning the corner and going on the offensive with a slew of revenue verticals and end markets. Hasbro has its Disney toy licensing deal (Marvel, Star Wars and Disney Princess lines), Hasbro Studios (Transformers’ Bumblebee, My Little Pony, Power Rangers), E-Sports (Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering) and reinventing its legacy games (Monopoly and Nerf) while driving newer products (Beyblades). Hasbro blew out expectations for its Q1 2019 earnings and the stock jumped 16%, breaking out above the $100 threshold, a level that hadn’t seen in over 6 months. This was followed up with its recent Q2 2019 earnings that blew away investors and the stock jumped 9% to all-time highs of over $120 per share.

Hasbro has set the post-Toys-R-Us bankruptcy narrative and laid out a business roadmap for long term profitable growth across its brands. Hasbro has had the tough task of getting out in front of the Toys-R-Us bankruptcy and working its way through the glut of merchandise. This sentiment has been bolstered by positive commentary from its CEO that the company has effectively absolved itself of the Toy R Us related bankruptcy headwind. All of this, while being fully committed to returning value to shareholders via a combination of share buybacks and dividend payouts. Hasbro has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts in the near and long-term time horizons. As this turn-around was unfolding, the previous two quarters weren’t a surprise considering the year-over-year comparisons were in the midst of the Toys-R-Us fallout while the company layered-in several growth initiatives. This recent 6-month run in the stock was... well, easy!

Q1/Q2 2019 Earnings Blowouts

Hasbro posted an unexpected profit for Q1 with EPS coming in at $0.32 against expectations of -$0.11, beating estimates by $0.32 per share. Revenue also came in much higher than expected with $732.5 million and beating estimates by 66.5 million. Q2 numbers were impressive as well, EPS came in at $0.78 against expectations of $0.28, beating estimates by $0.28 per share. Revenue beat expectations as well, coming in at $984.5 million (year-over-year growth of 9%), beating Wall Street estimates by $25.6 million (Figure 1). Continue reading "Hasbro's 52-Week High: Well, That Was Easy"

Hasbro Is Going On The Offensive

Hasbro (HAS) is turning the corner and going on the offensive with a slew of revenue verticals with its Disney toy licensing deal (Marvel, Star Wars and Disney Princess lines), Hasbro Studios (Transformers’ Bumblebee, My Little Pony, Power Rangers), E-Sports (Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering) and reinventing its legacy games (Monopoly and Nerf) while driving newer products (Beyblades). Hasbro blew out expectations for its Q1 2019 earnings and the stock jumped 16% breaking out above the $100 threshold, a level that hasn’t been seen in over 6 months. Hasbro is setting the post-Toys-R-Us bankruptcy narrative and laying out a business roadmap for long term profitable growth across its brands. Hasbro has had the tough task of getting out in front of the Toys-R-Us bankruptcy and working its way through the glut of merchandise. This positive sentiment has been further bolstered by positive commentary from its CEO that the company has effectively absolved itself of the Toy-R-Us related bankruptcy headwind. Hasbro has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts on the near and long term time horizons.

Q1 2019 Earnings

Hasbro posted an unexpected profit for Q1 with EPS coming in at $0.32 against expectations of -$0.11, beating estimates by $0.32 per share. Revenue also came in much higher than expected with $732.5 million and beating estimates by 66.5 million (Figure 1).

“The global Hasbro team is executing very well and delivered a good start to the year,” said Brian Goldner, Hasbro’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Our long-term investments in new platforms provided a meaningful contribution from our digital and e-sports initiative, Magic: The Gathering Arena, as well as growth in MAGIC: THE GATHERING tabletop revenues. In addition, MONOPOLY, PLAY-DOH and TRANSFORMERS were among the brands posting revenue gains this quarter. We are beginning to see improvement in our commercial markets, notably in the U.S. and Europe, and operating profit was driven by high margin revenue growth and our cost savings activities. With most of the year ahead of us, we remain on track to deliver profitable growth for the full-year 2019.”
Continue reading "Hasbro Is Going On The Offensive"

Hasbro: "We're Past the Toys "R" Us Debacle"

The Toys “R” Us bankruptcy has proven to be an albatross around Hasbro’s neck despite the confident, forward-looking narrative that’s been put forth for the previous two quarters by its CEO. The recent fourth-quarter earnings were disappointing, to say the least, capping off its historically best quarter. Revenue declined on an annual and quarterly basis by 12% and 13%, respectively. Despite these Toys “R” Us headwinds, Hasbro remains confident as the company annualizes the inventory glut caused by the liquidation. Hasbro (HAS) has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts on the near and long term time horizon. This confident future was reinforced with an 8% increase in its quarterly dividend payout despite its revenue declines.

Hasbro is setting the post-Toys “R” Us bankruptcy narrative and laying out a business roadmap for long term profitable growth across its brands. This sentiment has been further bolstered by positive commentary from its CEO that the company will absolve itself of this Toy “R” Us related bankruptcy headwind come 2019. There's many current and future growth catalysts for Hasbro in movie franchises such as Marvel, Star Wars and other Disney (DIS) properties (Hasbro is the exclusive toy maker), potential e-sports with Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering, newly acquired Power Rangers franchise which will emulate Hasbro’s My Little Pony and Transformers’ Bumblebee within Hasbro Studios and its legacy games such as Monopoly and Nerf.

Jim Cramer’s Mad Money 2018 Interviews

Hasbro’s CEO Brian Goldner has had a string of interviews with Jim Cramer on Mad Money. Over the past year, Goldner has had the tough task of getting out in front of the Toys “R” Us bankruptcy and glut of merchandise. Continue reading "Hasbro: "We're Past the Toys "R" Us Debacle""