Does The Oil Rally Have Legs To Go Higher?

Robert Boslego - Contributor - Energies

WTI Crude oil prices staged a 23% rally from June 21st through September 25th. The rally appeared to be running out-of-steam as OPEC’s market monitoring committee met September 22nd and made no recommendation about continuing the production limits beyond March next year.

But on Monday, the 25th, there was a surprise announcement by the president of Turkey that he would block the Kurds’ crude oil exports through the pipeline that is on Turkish soil if Kurdistan becomes an independent state. The vote was imminent.

Crude prices rose 3% to the highest rate since May, blowing through technical resistance levels. No doubt there were stops at those levels that were hit, triggering more buying. In the CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the week of September 26th, most of the buying was indeed short-covering by specs and hedgers. A minority of the buying was new long speculative positions. Continue reading "Does The Oil Rally Have Legs To Go Higher?"

Turkish Lira Will Continue To Plunge

Lior Alkalay - Contributor - Forex

Investors in the Turkish Lira got a whiff of optimism recently following the AKP party’s landslide victory. What’s the reason for the optimism you might ask? It’s that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would now have a stronger hold at the helm. That means the AKP party could conceivably push through much-needed reforms. But the fact is that’s really just wishful thinking. Any strength in the Turkish Lira should be used for selling not buying.

TRY Looking Bearish

Usually, I like to leave the FX charts for dessert, yet sometimes a quick glimpse can better deliver my point. Looking at the chart it becomes clear that the path towards a higher USD/TRY hasn’t budged a bit. Any inkling of optimism was overwhelmed by pessimists looking to get out of the Turkish Lira. So much so in fact that most of the Lira’s gains have already been lost.

Why are short sellers still dominant if reforms are coming? Because even much-needed reforms would take years before they’d have any impact. Meanwhile, the problems for Turkey and the Turkish Lira are imminent. Continue reading "Turkish Lira Will Continue To Plunge"