Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures settled last Friday in New York at 1,432 while currently trading at 1,448 up about $16 for the trading week experiencing a wild trading session yesterday having a $45 range rallying sharply on the close because the Trump administration is going to levy more tariffs on China.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 & 100 moving average as this is the strongest precious metal at the current time. I still believe higher prices are ahead. However, I am not involved. I do have bullish recommendations in platinum, silver, and copper as they all experiencing high volatility over the last several days.

Gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly this trend is strong to the upside. However, for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the July 19th high of 1,467 as gold prices are right near a 6 year high.

The 10-year note is yielding 1.87% as I have a bullish recommendation in that market as that is helping fuel gold prices higher as European countries and Japan have negative interest rates so money flows are coming into gold and I don't think that situation is going to change anytime soon as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.39 an ounce down about 28 cents for the trading week experiencing high volatility with large price swings daily. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level, and if prices close below 16.08, it will be time to exit and move on as you must have an exit strategy.

Silver prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher and as I've written about in previous blogs if you are a longer-term investor I would continue to hold as I think historically speaking prices are very cheap. The spread between gold and silver are at an all-time high as gold prices are up another $15 this afternoon as there a sheer panic about interest rates going to zero worldwide as that is sending money flows into gold and the 10-year note, but not into silver or the rest of the precious metals.

Volatility in silver certainly has increased over the last several days, however for the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the July 25th high of 16.68 in my opinion as the U.S dollar hit a 2 year high this week as that has put pressure on prices and that is why the Federal Reserve will have to continue to lower interest rates to curb the dollar rally.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.6850 a pound while currently trading at 2.6000 down around 850 points for the trading week resting right at the fresh contract low.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2.7130 level, and if the price closes below 2.6000, it is time to move on an exit as you never want to be long when prices hit new lows in my opinion.

Copper prices are down over 700 points in today's trade all because the Trump Administration is going to initiate more tariffs on China sending many commodity sectors sharply lower coupled with the fact that the housing market is showing some weakness, therefore, demand for copper is on the decline.

Copper futures are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned as I also have bullish recommendations in silver and in platinum which have held up much better than copper.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 867 an ounce while currently trading at 854 down about $13 for the trading week as prices are near a 2 week low. I've been recommending a bullish position from the 840 level and if it took that trade continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis only at 846 as we are just an eyelash away as platinum certainly is much weaker than gold at the current time.

Platinum prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average, and I do think a longer-term bottom has taken place as the volatility certainly has come about because the Trump Administration is putting tariffs on China which sent shock waves throughout many commodity sectors in yesterday's trade.

For the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the July 25th high of 889 in my opinion so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss and see what Monday's trade brings. I also have a bullish silver recommendation as I was stopped out of copper as the gold market is up over $25 today as the precious metal sector will become even more volatile in the coming months ahead.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

10-Year Note Futures

The 10-year note is currently trading at 128/30 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 127/07 as this market is trading right near a 3 year high due to the fact that the Trump Administration is slapping tariffs on China coupled with the fact that countries around the world continue to lower interest rates as U.S. rates still look expensive.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 128/00 level, and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss at 126/23 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will also be reduced.

At the present time the yield stands at 1.88% as I think we could go all the way down to 1.50% as it looks like the Federal Reserve is going to have to continue to lower interest rates for the rest of 2019 to try to curb the strength in the U.S. dollar as we are basically witnessing a currency war.

The 10-year note is trading far above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the upside with the next major level of resistance at the 130 level as there a significant room so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.24 a bushel while currently trading at 4.09 down about $0.15 for the trading week hitting a 2 1/2 month low. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 4.00 level and if you took that trade continue to place to stop loss under the contract low which was hit on May 13th at 3.63 as an exit strategy as I want to give this trade some room due to the fact of the highly-anticipated crop report which will be released on August 12th.

Private estimates of the U.S. corn yield is at 167.4 bushels per acre with production numbers at 13.992 billion bushels, and if that situation is true, I would construe that as bearish as that would tell you there was very little damage that took place due to the flooding.

I am a trend trader, but this is a counter-trend trade as I think prices just became too cheap as it was sheer panic yesterday when President Trump announced more tariffs on China sending many sectors lower including corn.

I do believe that the risk/reward is in your favor to take a bullish position as we have dropped about $0.75 from the contract high all due to improving weather conditions in the midwestern part of the United States.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.96 a bushel while currently trading at 4.84 ending the week on a positive note up about 8 cents this afternoon as the volatility certainly has come back into this commodity.

I have been recommending a bearish position from the 5.04 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high standing at 5.07 as an exit strategy as I also have a bearish trade in oats and a bullish corn recommendation as these commodities can go in opposite directions.

The Trump administration announced yesterday that they would slap on more tariffs against China as that sent many sectors sharply lower as that is undoubtedly a fundamental bearish factor towards wheat prices in the short-term.

If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact as we are right at major support. However, I still believe we could test the contract low, which was touched on May 13th at 4.27 in the coming weeks ahead as we await the highly-anticipated August 12th crop report.

The chart structure will not improve for another 6 trading sessions so you will have to accept the monetary risk, so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 102.45 while currently trading at 99.45 as I will be recommending a short position if prices close below 98.85 while then placing the stop loss at the 107 level as the risk would be around $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission.

Juice prices have been stuck in a 7-week consolidation looking to break out as the chart structure is outstanding and if you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact as prices are below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is turning south in my opinion.

At present, there are no hurricanes on the horizon that could do damage to the orange crop in the State of Florida as ideal weather conditions should produce another excellent crop so look to play this to the downside as the risk/reward would be in your favor. It seems to me that prices will retest the contract low, which was hit on May 6th at 94.45 as the fundamental and technical picture for this commodity remains bearish, especially without a trade agreement with China.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the December contract is currently trading at 2.69 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 2.63 a bushel as I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 2.75 level & if you took the trade, the stop loss stands at 2.75 as an exit strategy.
Oat prices have rallied for the 3rd consecutive session. However, the trend remains bearish in my opinion, as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time due to the low volatility.

Oat prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the downtrend line remains intact as I also have a bearish wheat position and a bullish corn position as these commodities can go in opposite directions as I will not 2nd guess as I will keep the stop at the break-even point.

Traders are awaiting the highly-anticipated August 12th crop report as that certainly will send volatility back into this market as most commodities have reacted negatively off of the Trump tariffs against China. However, the oat market has stabilized at the current time.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325
[email protected]

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.