More jobs needed to taper bonds

Many Federal Reserve members agreed last month that the job market's improvement would have to be sustained before the Fed would reduce its bond purchases, according to minutes of their June meeting. Several felt confident that a pullback in bond purchases could occur soon.

The minutes released Wednesday echo remarks Chairman Ben Bernanke made at a news conference after the meeting. Bernanke said the Fed would likely slow its bond purchases later this year and end them around mid-2014 if the economy continued to strengthen. The bond purchases have helped keep long-term interest rates low to spur spending.

Since the purchases began in September, the economy has added an average 204,000 jobs a month, up from 174,000 jobs in the previous nine months. Still, unemployment remains a high 7.6 percent.

The minutes showed that Fed members struggled with how best to convey the Fed's thinking about its timetable for bond purchases. Some wanted to explain it in the post-meeting statement. Others felt the statement might be misinterpreted. In the end, most participants thought Bernanke should lay out the Fed's thinking in his news conference _ and stress that any pullback in bond purchases would depend on the economic outlook. Continue reading "More jobs needed to taper bonds"

Gone Fishing

I took a few days off over the 4th and drove up to my summer home in Maine. This trip was both to have a break and to see my children, my first grandchild and my New Zealand son-in-law, who was visiting here with my beautiful daughter. During my stay, I decided to charter a fishing boat and a fishing guide, to take the kids fishing to catch some "stripers" or "rockfish" as they are known in Maryland.

I put some time into finding a really good fishing guide, one with a proven track record. I found a great Captain who had the track record and the right credentials, so we booked a half day fishing trip. Now, we were all ready to have some fun and catch some fish. The next day we set out at 6am with high hopes of having fresh cooked "stripers" for dinner!

Sound like a classic fishing story, but after several hours of fishing and nary a bite, I started thinking that trading is a lot like fishing … there are no guarantees.

Before I lose you all at this point, let me explain what I mean by that statement. Just imagine that you have the best equipment and a top notch fishing guide, you know the fish are out there, but for some reason, that only a fish would know, they are just not biting. It gets to be a little frustrating. Continue reading "Gone Fishing"

Today's Video Update: Clear Cut Trends Are Emerging

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Tuesday, the 9th of July.

NASDAQ Flashes A Buy Signal
On Monday, our weekly (intermediate trend) Trade Triangle kicked in and gave a buy signal for the NASDAQ index. The signal came in at 3,488.31, confirming that both the intermediate and longer-term trends are now in unison signaling a move to the upside. The NASDAQ could be a precursor of trends to come on both the DOW and the S&P 500, only time will tell.

Crude Oil Takes A Breather
Do not be fooled by this momentary pause in the price of crude oil, with the trend clearly established to the upside, I am looking for new highs in this market. With a target zone of $110 per barrel for crude, I see no reason to abandon long positions and want to hold firm for longer term traders. A close in the August contract over $103.50 this week will represent a new high close and a continuation of the uptrend. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: Clear Cut Trends Are Emerging"

Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain

Below is the opening segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 246).  My friend’s request for a 'simple' road map ended up a bit wordy, but I think the chain is logical.

Mail from a friend:  "I think your taper-to-carry idea has legs, but I’d really appreciate it if you went over the basic theory and how you see the dots connecting, if you decide there’s space and time in this weekend's edition at least. What I’d really want is a simple road map, the logical chain if you will. Nothing fancy, just the way it may (repeat may) play out and what its consequences might be."

When this request came in I had already been thinking about trying to put this all together in a logical sequence since 'T2C' was graduated to an actual plan from a thesis last week.

The idea was first introduced in NFTRH 241 on June 2, which was the week that the BKX-SPX ratio broke out to the upside and long-term Treasury bond yields broke up from bottoming patterns.  In the ensuing 5 weeks the macro fundamentals and technicals have only become firmer in support of T2C. Continue reading "Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain"

Today's Video Update: Stocks Rise Ahead of Earnings

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 8th of July.

Earlier today we posed the question, "Are the odds in your favor for a up market in July?" Well, it certainly seems so, given this mornings trading action, all the indices are on the plus side of the ledger so far for the month.

Today's Profit Taking In The Crude Oil Market Doesn't Change The Trend
Crude oil is seeing a little bit of profit-taking coming into the market after its recent sharp run up. I have an upside target zone of $110 level for crude and I expect the upward trend to continue for a while longer. Look for any pullbacks to present buying opportunities rather than a shorting opportunity. The trend is clearly established to the upside, so trade accordingly. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: Stocks Rise Ahead of Earnings"