CCI-Gold Ratio Will Tell the Story

The story referenced in the title being whether or not global policy makers can cook up an inflationary up phase in the global economy.  I had used the term ‘i2k12′ early last year referring to the prospects for what might ultimately be an inflationary 2012.  Well, they came with the QE at year-end and now the theme shifts forward to the prospects for i2k13.

A subscriber forwarded to me an audio of Don Coxe talking about the changes coming out of Global Policy Central in “Basel Greenlights Banks Big Time” and it turned out to be a good starter for a post in which I would like to try to delineate some things.

You may have heard me belly ache in the past about the raving inflation bulls who lump gold and gold stocks in with the entire inflation trade?  Gold is copper is oil is hogs?

No, gold is counter cyclical in its relative strength to these other things.  Ironically, when gold is being out performed by silver and a whole host of commodities in an inflationary phase, it can rise (sometimes handsomely) in nominal terms but its producers will suffer. Continue reading "CCI-Gold Ratio Will Tell the Story"

Today's Video Update: The Global Economy Comes Into Focus

Hello traders everywhere! Jeremy Lutz here with your mid-day market update for Wednesday, the 16th of January.

Concerns about the global economy are weighing on the markets after the World Bank cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2013.

The World Bank said it now expects the global economy to expand by 2.4 percent in 2013 compared to its June forecast for 3 percent growth. Estimates suggest the global economy grew 2.3 in 2012.

On a positive note, a report from the Federal Reserve showed a slightly bigger than expected increase in U.S. industrial production in the month of December.

The report showed that industrial production increased by 0.3 percent in December following a revised 1.0 percent jump in November. Economists had expected production to edge up by 0.2 percent. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: The Global Economy Comes Into Focus"

Do you have a Forex trading plan?

The most important structural part of a house is usually unseen. If the foundation of a house is cracked, not level, or deteriorating, the home is no longer safe. The family living inside is at danger and the first priority of the owner should be to get the foundation fixed.

Many have a vague plan for Investing, but do not have a solid, non-negotiable trading system in place. Your trading system covers everything from your tools and entry strategy to your risk management. It answers every question before it needs to be asked.

In Forex trading, the market can be brutal. It is commonly stated that 95 or more percent of traders lose in the Forex Market which speaks to the difficulty of trading it. That is why it is essential to build a personal and successful Forex Trading System.

There are many aspects to a successful system, but today I want to focus the importance of Trade Management.

Before I jump into the details, though, I want to hit on the importance of a good entry strategy so that you have something to use your Trade Management with. Continue reading "Do you have a Forex trading plan?"

Surprise Apple's iPhone 5 isn't selling so well after all

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 14th of January.

The so-called surprise that Apple is not selling as many iPhone 5's as it first expected, is no surprise to MarketClub members. Our first clue that Apple wasn't shiny and selling as many iPhones as everyone first thought came in October, over three months ago!! Our weekly Trade Triangle flashed an exit signal for Apple on 10/02/12 at $656.00. A major sell or short signal was given for Apple exactly one month later on 11/02/12 at $587.70.

Presently our Trade Triangle technology indicates that a short position in Apple stock is in order.

Remember the Amazon/Walmart trade we talked about last week? That trade is a spread trade to be long Amazon, while at the same time shorting a similar dollar amount of Walmart stock. What you are looking for in this trade is for the relationship between the two stocks to broaden, percentage wise, in favor of the long position. That could mean that Amazon keeps going up or it could mean that Walmart continues to erode, either way you'll make money if the stocks continue to diverge. This trade, or "hedge" trade as I like to call it, picked up 4% last week. This was far more than the general market did in any of the sectors. We still see this trade working as more and more of the middle class will be shopping online and not in brick and mortar stores, except for their food supplies. Continue reading "Surprise Apple's iPhone 5 isn't selling so well after all"