Category: General

"Interest Rates Drive Stocks"? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter's monthly Elliott Wave Theorist once published a ten-part study explaining why traditional financial models failed to foresee the 2007-2009 financial crisis -- and, more importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again).

On Thursday (Sept. 17), the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. On Friday, stocks opened down big. But before you join those who blame it on the Fed, please read this excerpt from Prechter's eye-opening study.

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Economic theory holds that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. The higher the income that investors can get from safe bonds, the less attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks; conversely, the less income that investors can get from safe bonds, the more attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks. A statement of this construction appears to be sensible.

And it would be, if it were made in the field of economics. For example, "Rising prices for beef make chicken a more attractive purchase." This statement is simple and true. But in the field of finance such statements fly directly in the face of the evidence.

Figure 3 shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. They display routs of 54% to 89%. Continue reading ""Interest Rates Drive Stocks"? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth" →

Are These The Greatest Success Stories In Europe?

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By: David Sterman of Street Authority

It's been five years since the Financial Times first made use of one of the less flattering economic acronyms: PIIGS. Back then, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain were seen as economic basket cases, and it was widely assumed that one or several of them would eventually default on their massive debt burdens.

While such an event has yet to pass, Greece remains quite sickly, and Portugal and Italy continue to wrestle with profound economic dislocation. To varying degrees, these countries have failed to embrace the badly-needed economic reforms that are essential to sow the seeds of a lasting economic recovery.

Yet despite heavy odds, Ireland and Spain are clearly on the comeback trail. Thanks to broad-based reform packages, their economies have begun to turn the corner. And with the aid of a very competitive currency, their futures are looking far brighter than most would have suspected just a few years ago. For investors, exposure to these dynamic turnaround stories can be had through a pair of country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Ireland Is Back In Business

Ireland and its citizens are remarkably resilient. They have been through myriad crises over the past two centuries, and always manage to bounce back. Most recently, they saw the country's economy crash and burn in the economic crisis of 2008-2009. Irish banks eventually grew so weak that a wave of bankruptcies were a real possibility. By 2012, unemployment in the country had risen to nearly 15%. Continue reading "Are These The Greatest Success Stories In Europe?" →

Conspiracy Facts Show Metal Prices Have to Rise

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Even in a frozen metals price market, it only takes one event to shake off the paper manipulation keeping prices below what supply and demand fundamentals of a free market would dictate. And when that correction comes, it could happen quickly. In this interview with The Gold Report, The Morgan Report Publisher David Morgan shares his favorite ways to own leverage to metal prices upside while protecting against junior mining risk.

Gold and Silver Bars

The Gold Report: You and David Smith recently wrote a piece titled "Gold and Silver: Heading for a Blue Screen of Death Event." You compared the gut-wrenching panic of suddenly facing a computer that stops working with a precious metals market that seems frozen, in the case of gold, in sub-$1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) limbo. But then you suggested that, like a Windows operating system, the metal could be rebooted on its way to once again hitting $1,900/oz. What would it take for something like that to occur? How do you hit Control-Alt-Delete on a commodity? Continue reading "Conspiracy Facts Show Metal Prices Have to Rise" →

Investors Bet On Housing Again (Just In Time For Another Implosion?)

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Elliott Wave International

The U.S. housing market may be about to implode -- again.

Before I get into the "why," know that the residential real estate market never fully recovered.

Annualized new home sales this past July stood at 507,000, vs. the July 2005 peak of 1.39 million. The chart and commentary from the August Elliott Wave Theorist offer:

The percentage of Americans who own a home is still plummeting despite the partial recovery in real estate prices. Today, the percentage of families owning homes in America has plunged to its lowest level in 48 years, nearly half a century. ... By saddling home-buyers with massive debts, the government has done the opposite of what it promised; it has ruined the American Dream for tens of millions of families. Now it's doing the same thing to education ... .

Yes, U.S. student loans amount to some $1.2 trillion. Yet the new on-campus trend is luxury student housing. Continue reading "Investors Bet On Housing Again (Just In Time For Another Implosion?)" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

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We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract are sharply higher this Friday in New York trading up $20 at 1,137 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,103 reacting to the Federal Reserve yesterday not raising interest rates sending gold sharply higher with high volatility. Gold is trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time as this trend is extremely choppy as I’m advising investors to avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure before entering. I was recommending a silver trade getting stopped out a couple of days back as the precious metals as a whole have rallied as it looks like the Federal Reserve is very hesitant to raise interest rates which is bullish commodity markets at least here in the short-term, but the true breakout in gold is above 1,170 but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →