Category: General

Gone Fishing

Posted on by The INO.com Team

I took a few days off over the 4th and drove up to my summer home in Maine. This trip was both to have a break and to see my children, my first grandchild and my New Zealand son-in-law, who was visiting here with my beautiful daughter. During my stay, I decided to charter a fishing boat and a fishing guide, to take the kids fishing to catch some "stripers" or "rockfish" as they are known in Maryland.

I put some time into finding a really good fishing guide, one with a proven track record. I found a great Captain who had the track record and the right credentials, so we booked a half day fishing trip. Now, we were all ready to have some fun and catch some fish. The next day we set out at 6am with high hopes of having fresh cooked "stripers" for dinner!

Sound like a classic fishing story, but after several hours of fishing and nary a bite, I started thinking that trading is a lot like fishing … there are no guarantees.

Before I lose you all at this point, let me explain what I mean by that statement. Just imagine that you have the best equipment and a top notch fishing guide, you know the fish are out there, but for some reason, that only a fish would know, they are just not biting. It gets to be a little frustrating. Continue reading "Gone Fishing" →

Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Below is the opening segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 246).  My friend’s request for a 'simple' road map ended up a bit wordy, but I think the chain is logical.

Mail from a friend:  "I think your taper-to-carry idea has legs, but I’d really appreciate it if you went over the basic theory and how you see the dots connecting, if you decide there’s space and time in this weekend's edition at least. What I’d really want is a simple road map, the logical chain if you will. Nothing fancy, just the way it may (repeat may) play out and what its consequences might be."

When this request came in I had already been thinking about trying to put this all together in a logical sequence since 'T2C' was graduated to an actual plan from a thesis last week.

The idea was first introduced in NFTRH 241 on June 2, which was the week that the BKX-SPX ratio broke out to the upside and long-term Treasury bond yields broke up from bottoming patterns.  In the ensuing 5 weeks the macro fundamentals and technicals have only become firmer in support of T2C. Continue reading "Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain" →

Gold Chart of The Week

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report (July 8th through July 12th)

As expected, markets overall went through the lighter volume volatility trade last week due to the July 4th Holiday. The only standout was the Crude Oil Futures, which spent the entire week pricing in the news in Egypt. Aside from that, most other markets went through the usual rangy market swings that are expected around shortened Holiday weeks, especially those in the Summer.

I anticipate we will see similar movement in the week ahead as Summer trading continues. Additionally, the upcoming week is a bit light on tradable news. Aside from reviews from the monthly meetings of the Central Banks in the US and Japan, we begin quarterly earnings reports in the US Stock Indexes. If there are no major surprises, I would expect the same type of volatility we saw in the prior week. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week" →

Are the odds in your favor for an upmarket in July?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

During the past four years the month of July has generally been a positive one for the U.S. stock market. In 2012 the market witnessed its smallest percentage gain of just 1.25% for the month of July. As you can see during the past four years the general trend has been positive for the market in July, but the percentage gains have been decreasing annually since '09. During the month of July, the average gain over the last 4 years has been a very positive 3.34%. With our monthly trade triangles still in a positive mode I expect the month of July to be flat to slightly positive for stocks.

Here are the monthly returns for July, beginning in 2009. Continue reading "Are the odds in your favor for an upmarket in July?" →

Chart to Watch - Live Cattle

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked our friend Jim Robinson of profittrading.com to provide his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using the Trade Triangles and his experience.

Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of the August Live Cattle. (CME_LE.Q13.E).

I hope you are having a GREAT week !!!

Live Cattle looks to be headed higher, so let's take a look at the August Live Cattle chart this week.

When trading futures we use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle to tell us the trend, and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle for timing the entries and exits. Continue reading "Chart to Watch - Live Cattle" →