February gold closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below November's low crossing at 1674.70 thereby renewing the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1638.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1714.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1714.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1757.10. First support is today's low crossing at 1662.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1638.00. Continue reading "Precious Metals Commentary"
Category: General
Gold Chart of the Week
Each week Lo
ngleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.
Weekly Gold Report (December 17th through December 22nd)
As far as I am concerned, “Holiday Markets” took control last week and it is the best way to describe what we witnessed in Gold. In Europe, a deal in Greece was reached which underpinned the Euro and dropped the US Dollar. Later in the week, the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates at close to zero until unemployment falls below 6.5%, which is new to their monetary policy. It is the first time ever that Interest Rates were pegged to one area of the U.S. Economy. Initially after the news broke, Gold Futures rallied and closed in the upper end of the range for the week. But it was not long before early profit taking began and suddenly the market found itself over $30 lower and back at the lower end of the range on lighter volume. And who could forget all of the “Fiscal Cliff” nonsense? Every day (sometimes multiple times a day), through television or social media, the President and the Speaker of the House report to the world that while they are negotiating, nothing is really being accomplished. I can’t speak for the rest of the world, but personally I can not wait for the final decision, not because it will provide a direction for major markets, but because I am tired of reading about both of them and their sophomoric behavior. It seems like suddenly the highest political offices in the U.S. have confused their roles with the highest offices at US (Weekly). Continue reading "Gold Chart of the Week"
Millions face higher taxes real soon without fix
While much of Washington is consumed by the debate over tax increases scheduled to take effect next year, big tax hikes have already gone into effect for millions of families and businesses this year.
More than 70 tax breaks enjoyed by individuals and businesses expired at the end of 2011. If Congress doesn't extend them retroactively back to the beginning of this year, a typical middle-class family could face a $4,000 tax increase when it files its 2012 return in the spring, according to an analysis by H&R Block, the tax preparing giant.
At the same time, businesses could lose dozens of tax breaks they have enjoyed for years, including generous credits for investing in research and development, write-offs for restaurants and retail stores that expand or upgrade and tax breaks for financial companies with overseas subsidiaries.
Lawmakers in both political parties say they expect to address this year's tax increases as part of a deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff" of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to take effect next year. But as talks drag on, they are reluctant to deal with the 2012 tax increases separately because that would reduce pressure to reach a broader budget agreement. Continue reading "Millions face higher taxes real soon without fix"
Porter Stansberry: End the Ban on US Oil Exports
The Energy Report: As a history enthusiast, Porter, to what extent do you believe technology has changed investing?
Porter Stansberry: The future will be unlike the past in every way related to technology, but it will be exactly like the past as it relates to people. Technology changes a great deal, but people don't. You can count on politicians to be scumbags and most people to be lazy. But as for investing, technology gives far more people access to information. Only one person in the world knew the actual price of a high-yield bond 25 years agoMichael Milkenand he made a fortune with that information advantage. Today, everybody has access to trading information. Everyone has access to price. In general, technology has made finance a smaller-margin business. It's led to enormous scale in our financial institutions, which is the only way they can really survive. But fear and greed are still the underlying forces that drive the markets, and investors are just as subject to irrational emotional decisions as they've ever been. I don't expect technology will ever change that.
TER: Getting specifically into energy, a few weeks ago the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) said the U.S. would become the world's largest oil producer, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia, before 2020. Then Goldman Sachs said it would happen by 2017.
PS: They stole my thunder. I've been saying 2017 for maybe a year now. If Goldman is saying 2017 and IEA is saying 2020 it will probably happen in 2016.
TER: How will the geopolitical and socioeconomic landscape change when the U.S. becomes the largest oil producer? Continue reading "Porter Stansberry: End the Ban on US Oil Exports"
Fear vs. Fundamentals in the Platinum Market
In October of last year, we published a platinum-market overview in the Casey International Speculator and concluded by saying: "We recommend avoiding South Africa, and in this context it means staying away from platinum producers located there. If the energy situation spins out of control, miners' strikes continue, and the local trouble puts an indefinite halt to a significant portion of platinum production, some speculative opportunities may appear in the physical-metal market or platinum-backed investment tools. If we see signs of that happening, we may speculate on the results."
Although some of the events that we expected did occur this year, the "indefinite halt" has not. The nationwide wildcat strikes that ended in mid-November suggested that that scenario was possible, but the bubbling pot simmered down. We were asked by our readers to share our view on the implications of those actions on the price of platinum.
So, what is the outlook for the platinum market now, and is it time to buy? Continue reading "Fear vs. Fundamentals in the Platinum Market"
