A Closer Look at the US Dollar

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Using the standard weekly currency chart we followed along for months as the Euro found resistance at the long-term downtrend line as expected, the commodity currencies long ago lost major support and non-confirmed the commodity complex and the US dollar moved from a hold of critical support, to a trend line breakout, to its current impulsive and over bought status.  It is time now for a closer look at Uncle Buck since this reserve currency is key to so many asset markets the world over.

As the charts below show, USD is over bought on both daily and weekly time frames.  But the monthly is interesting because its big picture view is that of a basing/bottoming pattern, and it is bullish.  That is a long-term director, so regardless of what happens in the short-term, a process of unwinding the hyper-inflationist ‘Dollar Collapse’ cult is ongoing.  Signs point to disinflation toward deflation.

We’ll start with a daily chart and then ascend right through the weekly and then the monthly to take the pulse of USD.

As noted, the daily chart below is very over bought.  It is currently consolidating the big jerk upward that has come against Euro-negative policy from the ECB and an increasing drum beat about an eventual rise in the Fed Funds rate in the US.  People are finally catching on to the fact that the US economy has been strengthening since early 2013 and that the Fed is looking out of touch holding ZIRP despite this strength.

So the dollar is getting bid up.  The question the chart asks is whether the current consolidation will work-off of another over bought situation, or is a prelude to a reversal?  The answer is going to be key to the bounce potential in many asset markets, but especially commodities, which are generally tanking and precious metals, with gold eventually due to firm after it finishes its bear market and its fundamentals come in line.

usd.daily

You will recognize the weekly chart as it is the top panel of our long-running multi-currency chart.  RSI has been added to this view to show the over bought level.  Note that the weekly has joined the daily in over bought status on this most recent drive, whereas it was merely healthy – and not over bought – the last time the daily registered an over bought reading in July. Continue reading "A Closer Look at the US Dollar" →

Doug Casey: "There Is a Rogue Elephant in Your House"

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Doug Casey, Chairman

One time when I was in Burma (now Myanmar), I spent a couple of days riding around the forest by elephant back. Elephants are a fine thing to have in the forest but, believe it or not, you have one living in your house with you. And you should do something about it now, before your house is wrecked and you and your family get stomped in the process.

Any amount of financial success won’t mean much if you get stepped on by the elephant in the room. The damage you routinely suffer from the elephant—not to mention the lingering threat that he’ll go completely berserk someday—dwarfs the importance of the best investment decision you’ll ever make. So, I’m going to invite your attention to a problem of overriding importance: How can you protect yourself and your wealth from the elephant?

The elephant in the room is, of course, the government.

The elephant is your permanent roommate, and it has a permanently big appetite. In the name of “income tax,” it regularly eats 40% or so of everything you earn. You may not like it, but by now you’ve probably learned to live with it.

After you’ve lived out your income-tax paying years, the elephant will attend your funeral—not to console the mourners or to recount your good deeds, but to collect estate tax. In the name of the “estate tax,” the government will take up to 40% of what you leave for the next generation and perhaps more of what you leave for your grandchildren. Continue reading "Doug Casey: "There Is a Rogue Elephant in Your House"" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures have been very volatile in the last couple of weeks as prices are up $.30 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 93.15 a barrel in the October contract as I am now recommending a short position when prices closed below 92.50 earlier in the week while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 96.00 a barrel risking around $3,500 per contract as the chart structure is awful at the current time but I still do believe that the trend is lower despite the fact that prices traded as low as 90.43 before rallying severely in the last couple of days. Crude oil prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as the U.S dollar continues to make new highs against the Euro currency and I think that will be the main factor of lower prices, however problems with Iraq in Syria are propping up prices once again but continue to play this to the downside and sell any rally making sure you use the proper stop loss as the 10 day high will start to come down dramatically on a daily basis starting next week so the risk reward situation will be better than it is at the current time. The 10 year note is hitting a 5 week high yielding 2.56% and that is also a negative influence on commodity prices as well as oil as the United States is becoming an exporter as we are not so reliant on Middle East oil and that’s why prices have not been skyrocketing due to the all ISIS nonsense which is now controlling 2 countries.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Who Will Win The Next Big Financial Frontier?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

There's something coming that is going to be very big and all the major companies, from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), are all vying to control and own this new frontier. This could be as big and as ubiquitous as the Internet.

Who among these three players is going to win?

On Tuesday, Apple rolled out its new iPhone, along with the new Apple Watch, and something that didn't get a lot of attention called Apple Pay. Now all of these same technologies exist with other companies in one form or another, but what I see as the next big thing for all of the above-mentioned companies is going to be mobile payments.

But what if none of these companies are successful on the upcoming financial frontier, who will take the prize? Continue reading "Who Will Win The Next Big Financial Frontier?" →