In 2017 Bitcoin became a household name as the price went from below $1,000 per coin at the start of the year to well over $19,000 as the year came to an end. In 2018, the price of the most well-known cryptocurrency fell from its lofty heights to close the year below $4,000 per coin.
As we roll into 2019, some cryptocurrency experts are predicting Bitcoin to break the 2017 record high and fulfill its destiny of going as high as $1,000,000 per coin by 2020. Other more modest expectations have Bitcoin at around the $50,000 range by year end 2019. But the mass consensus of Bitcoin experts has the crypto ending the year in that $20,000 range.
I personally still believe that is way, way, way too high, and I’ll go even as far as saying Bitcoin will end 2019 lower than where it starts the year.
In March of 2017 the Winklevoss twins had their first Bitcoin ETF proposal rejected and now the second Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF proposal was dismissed in July of 2018 by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The reason all of this matter is because the Winklevoss twins where the first to have the SEC rule on a Bitcoin ETF back in 2017, and now that their proposal has been rejected for a second time things are starting to look a little bleak for investors who want a Bitcoin ETF.
First and foremost, the Securities and Exchange Commission that made the ruling expressed concern about Bitcoin’s trading reliability and security; two significant issues which don’t appear to be easy fixes anytime soon. The commission went on to say “The record before the commission indicates that a substantial majority of bitcoin trading occurs on unregulated venues overseas that are relatively new and that, generally, appear to trade only digital assets.” The commission stated that more then 75% of Bitcoin trading happens on unregulated foreign exchanges.
Back in December I called for an unbelievable $20k target for the Bitcoin when it traded around $15.6k, and ten days later that target was hit (click on the play button to see how price emerged). It was one hell of the roller coaster ride that month as Bitcoin then lost almost half of its worth in a matter of days right ahead of Christmas falling to $11k.
Rinse and repeat! The crypto king started to grow again, and then I posted another map at the end of 2017, which implied a pullback to the $16k-$20k area before another huge drop to the $7500 area. Amazingly, both the upside and downside forecasted areas were hit accurately (click on the play button to see how price emerged).
The Bitcoin buzz is coming down with the price staying below $10k. It is like a superstar who has seen his best times already and is on the tour to the countries where he is still warmly welcomed as we are not in the $20k euphoria area now (we can call it a “cocaine” time) although you can still buy some pleasant things selling just one coin for more than $7k these days.
During March, the price of Bitcoin fell just about 35%. It started the month at $10,805 and ended just below $7,000. Bitcoin’s decline in March has been massive, but what I find even more interesting is this decline has been somewhat slow and steady. In the past when Bitcoin would crash, 30%, 40%, 50% or even more, it would happen in a matter of days or even hours.
The slow decline is an indication that the Bitcoin craze or Bitcoin Bubble is likely over. When the craze hit a fever pitch following the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, the price more than doubled in just about 25 days. The Bitcoin rally hit a peak on December 17th, 2017 when they were trading for more than $19,205 per coin. More so than that, the last time Bitcoin traded in the low $6,000 range, was before the Thanksgiving Holiday when it is believed many families sat around the dinner table and discussed the “can’t miss opportunity in cryptocurrencies.” Those discussions helped fuel 100,000 new accounts being opened that weekend and the price of Bitcoin hitting $9,000 for the first time.
The Thanksgiving dinner table conversations helped foster the “fear of missing out” trend that we saw catapult Bitcoin both into the limelight and at breathtaking prices. That fear soon faded as Bitcoin fell hard, from $19,205 to $14,500 in just five days, following it hitting its record and still all-time high. Ever since then the cryptocurrency has been on a downward trajectory.
The declining price has lessened interest from both the general public and big investors, and even now we have seen the media outlets reducing coverage on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Even Alphabet’s Google searches (Fig.1) are down dramatically since the peak. A further look at the price of Bitcoin (Fig.2) and the Google search trend of Bitcoin may tell another story. The two charts side by side look very, very similar. Continue reading "Bitcoin Fell 35% in March"→
If you look at a chart of Bitcoin during 2017, it really only went higher during the first 11 months. The in the middle of November it was as if the cryptocurrency was strapped to a rocket ship as the price shot higher until mid-December.
While early investors made a killing on Bitcoin in 2017, the real excitement all happened in December. Bitcoin started 2017 at $996, began the month of December at $10,500, then peaked on December 17, 2017, at $19,206, but ended the year at just over $14,000. When Bitcoin hit its peak, it was up nearly 100% for just the month of December, but even after falling $5,000 in only 14 days, it still ended the month up more than 30%.
While Bitcoin may have only risen 30% in December, it increased more than 1,350% in 2017, with nearly 400% of that gain coming in December and 800% of its coming after November 1st. So what happened in the last two months of the year that caused the price of Bitcoin to rocket higher, in such as short period? Continue reading "How Bitcoin Finished An Astonishing Year"→