By: Craig Turner
The USDA will release the August WASDE tomorrow at 7:30 AM CDT. We are expecting cuts in yield and production for Corn and Soybeans. We are also expecting draws on the global wheat supply.
While many analysts are expecting the USDA to cut yields, production and stocks in this WASDE report, prices will not automatically rally. The market has already priced in the expectations of production cuts. Therefore, it is very important to know the market expectations for the report tomorrow. If the cuts are greater than what the market expects, prices should rally. If cuts are less than what the market expects, prices should decline. If the report comes in as expected, the WASDE could be a non-event in the Grain Markets. Continue reading "WASDE Special Report" →
By: Craig Turner
The WASDE increased ending stocks to 903 million bushels for 2011-2012 corn, up from 851 previously. The USDA has the July Corn yield at 146.0 and cut demand over 1 billion bushels. It is important to note what the yield is as of July 1 for the USDA. One can make the argument that since July 1 we have lost more bushels and we are probably closer to a 140 yield now. Continue reading "WASDE Review and Yield Scenarios for Corn & Soybeans" →
By John Payne, Senior Broker with Daniels Trading
The corn trade has been incredibly complicated as of late. The situation is one that projects both the most bullish and bearish of set ups, simultaneously. So what is anyone involved in the grain trade supposed to do? What do we focus on going forward that will project prices higher or lower? If market participants or advisors look closely, they will see a Jekyll and Hyde type market that doesn’t come around that often.
Tight Supply and 95 million Acres
Corn futures are now an environment with a two-tiered structure. On one hand, we have the old crop, or cash corn market (grain that is in the bin or would be ready for use immediately). This market is showing bullish characteristics with a historically tight supply on hand. The one factor, beyond all things, that triggers me as a buyer of cash or front month corn futures is the strong basis being reported in Decatur, IL (heart of corn belt) and in the Gulf of Mexico where the export terminals are. As of today, those basis levels are as strong as we have seen in recent times. Continue reading "The Game Plan for Investing in Today's Corn Market" →