Gold; A Thing Of Beauty...

Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle; Miners lay in wait.

You see, there is all this noise out there. It comes mostly from inflationists touting gold in the same breath as copper, as oil, and as commodities of all flavors (and aside from gold and, to a degree, silver, those flavors are cyclical).

But you also see, gold is counter-cyclical in its best suit. You see on this monthly chart that gold has been forming its Handle to the bullish Cup ever since the inflation trades came to the fore in the summer of 2020. Therefore, you see that those touting gold and inflation together have been wrong for over a year now (and counting).

For those dealing in reality instead of dogma, gold is a candidate to break the Handle at any time. Then it would be off to the target at 3000+ over the course of a year or more. But reality holds another option as well, and that is to finish the Handle making lower.

So why not tune out the perma-pompoms in real-time, realize that the thing is bullish, but the trigger is either coming sooner or later? We are doing that more focused work in NFTRH and associated updates every week and will be on the spot when the proper signals engage.

This chart was created in 2020 as gold spiked to an all-time high and reversed (into the then-projected Handle). Continue reading "Gold; A Thing Of Beauty..."

Bitcoin Triggered Buy Setup, Plus Gold And Silver

Bitcoin is a true modern hero in the financial world as it stands no matter what. Let it be the Chinese government's ban or US regulators and financial elite's rejection.

It is amazing how Bitcoin follows a conventional chart structure as it acts like matured instruments over time but at a higher speed. The predicted drop in leg 2 down hasn’t kept us long as it emerged the same day when the previous update was posted.

Most of you thought that this drop could be just a part of a pullback ahead of another Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

The collapse in red leg 2 down was close to hitting the preset target of $38k, as it bottomed at the $39,600 mark. The structure looks completed as it has met the minimum requirement to travel an equal distance with leg 1. Continue reading "Bitcoin Triggered Buy Setup, Plus Gold And Silver"

Gold Builds Buy Setup, Is Bitcoin Next?

Gold follows the map posted in an earlier update.

Daily Gold Chart

Gold dropped within two visible legs close to the area of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,738. The second leg down has overshot the size of the first leg reaching almost 1.272 of its distance. The RSI has shown two legs down either. Initially, the 50 level in the indicator’s sub-chart acted as a support, and then it turned resistance for the joint between two legs. Continue reading "Gold Builds Buy Setup, Is Bitcoin Next?"

Bitcoin and Gold Update: What's Next?

Bitcoin triggered the new buy setup posted last week.

Most readers confirmed that they see the new bullish opportunity in Bitcoin, and the largest part were ready to add or enter the new trade.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

The new buy setup repeated the first trade setup as the setback was not deep again as it only reached the same 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

The Friday brought the expected trigger above the previous Saturday’s top of $48,150. The setup is active now and should limit risk below the valley of correction to around $43,900. The risk/reward is good at 1:4, with the same target at the all-time high of $64,899. Continue reading "Bitcoin and Gold Update: What's Next?"

HUI Technical Status And Gold Stock Fundamentals

A review of the situation in gold stocks. It is, in essence, a year ago that Warren Buffett ill-timed his entry into the gold stock sector, unwittingly calling a top to the post-crash rally and signaling the start of the 2020 inflation trades, which did not include gold stocks (for logical reasons, as belabored in NFTRH and at over the years). Increasing the view that ole’ Warren was playing contrary indicator last summer were the usual gold perma-bull suspects coming out immediately after with bullhorns a blaring as we noted in real-time on August 17, 2020: Buffett Buys a Gold Stock!

In the scope of the entire correction, as the bids rotated out of the precious metals and to a lesser degree growth/tech stocks into value stocks and cyclicals (including commodities) the inflation-instigated reflation trades hit stride, and gold stocks were sent on a long decline. Again, if you tune out the perma-touts and think rationally, the miners were only doing what they should do (see below).

There were two false breakdowns, the second of which sparked a strong rally. We also caught Mr. Buffett for a contrary signal to that rally on February 17, 2021: Buffett Pukes a Gold Stock!

The rally terminated at a key resistance level (as plotted well ahead of time as a caution zone in NFTRH) and here we are with HUI below its down-turning SMA 50 and SMA 200 (which needed to hold as support in order to maintain a constructive view), back in the downtrend channel (actually the Handle to a still bullish big picture, which is beyond the scope of this post) and the near-term bounce that I had been expecting has finally arrived after the rude interruption of an unexpected lower low.

That low came off of positive RSI and MACD divergences and here we are, on the bounce with the channel’s upper line, the down-sloping moving averages, and a clear lateral resistance area all taunting… “‘C’mon Huey, we dare you!” Continue reading "HUI Technical Status And Gold Stock Fundamentals"