The market does not move in a straight line. I anticipated a correction to start in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) as it moved down too far without a break, and it came at the end of last week. Traders decided to book some profit ahead of a weekend, pushing the price of the dollar higher.
I highlighted the possible retracement area between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels with the orange rectangle within the 91.60 - 92.30 range. The dollar nears the first resistance. The top of the rectangle is very close to the trendline resistance, making it a fortified barrier. Continue reading "Dollar, Gold And Silver: The Market Takes A Break"→
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), aka “King,” has a clear structure in its chart as it moves accurately according to the plan posted at the beginning of the month. Most of you supported the idea that the dollar will show another drop.
The green leg 2 of the pullback traveled 1.618 of the distance of the first green leg up and touched 93.44 at the top. Then, the price quickly reversed down to drop like a rock. The last week’s bar closed at the minimum as selling pressure persisted. I switched to a weekly time frame to show you how accurately the current second leg down repeats the path of the first leg down.
This time, after the price went deep down, I built the black downtrend channel through the recent peak. We can see the magic of the trend here as the mid-channel accurately intersects the valley of the first leg down at 88.25 to offer double support for the price.
The RSI turned Bearish following the brief roll over the crucial level. It confirms the downward outlook.
As Bitcoin matures, the chart structure becomes more readable over time. We can see how such a conventional indicator as a moving average perfectly supports the price. I added a 55-day (Fibonacci number) moving average (green), which at least three times this year kept the price in the bullish mode that started last October when the price crossed this line to the upside.
Another popular indicator RSI has perfectly detected the Bearish Divergence and pushed the price down last month. After that, it moved back above the crucial 50 level, which supported the current upward move.
I see possible AB/CD segments in the chart (blue labels). The BC consolidation was huge and complicated, but it could be over now. If the CD segment travels the same distance as the AB part, then the price of Bitcoin could hit the new all-time high of $80,000. The projection of the black trendline resistance confirms that ambitious target, and we know how powerful the trends are. Continue reading "Bitcoin, Dollar, Gold And Silver Update"→
The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble.
Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. inflation promoted for and currently working toward economic goals) the gold miners never do, unless they rise against their preferred fundamentals as they did during two separate phases in the last bull market, which were justly resolved with crashes.
Here are a couple charts we used in NFTRH 648 in a segment written to set the record straight. We have also used these charts – especially the first one – since the caution flags went up last summer, visually by the first chart and anecdotally by the usual suspects aggressively pumping the unwitting masses. Buffett buys a gold stock!… okay, well so much for that. Sentiment became off the charts over-bullish and now, as we prepare for the final act of the correction, it’s the opposite. That’s perfect.
HUI had far exceeded the Gold/SPX ratio and so it was very vulnerable from a macro fundamental perspective. Why on earth would players want to focus on miners digging a rock out of the ground that was starting to fail in a price ratio to the stock market? They wouldn’t, and since last summer they didn’t.
But from a sector fundamental perspective the Gold/Oil ratio (Oil/Energy is a primary driver of mining costs) and HUI show that the 2020 rally was nothing like the two bubbles of yesteryear, when not only did HUI hit danger signals (!) noted above by a macro fundamental indicator, it also made two separate bubbles vs. this sector fundamental. This time? Nope, no bubble here. Continue reading "Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip"→
Last time the chart structure of the dollar was less clear; hence I put two opposite scenarios in the chart with triggers.
As time goes by, the market reveals itself more clearly. The DXY price built a familiar two-leg consolidation highlighted with the orange ellipse. It follows the preceding move down from the recent peak of green leg 2. It means further weakness is ahead. I put the trigger on the 91.30 mark (bottom of the minor consolidation) for confirmation. The target remains intact in the area of the Y2018 valley. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Dollar Is Going Down"→