Ever since the surprise leave vote in the UK, investors have braced for a financial tsunami that could overwhelm the UK economy. Thus far, there has only been one real casualty—the Pound Sterling. All the while, the UK economy has surprised forecasters. The UK Manufacturing PMI already bounced back to an impressive 55.4; retail sales were surprisingly resilient and, most puzzling to economists, UK 3rd quarter GDP grew at a healthy clip of 2.3% Q3 year-over-year. So, what is really going on? Continue reading "Sterling Close To A Turnaround?"→
Worries over an exit of Britain from the European Union have taken their toll on Sterling. As June 23rd approaches, the day in which Britons will vote to either stay or leave, so does the pressure on the Pound Sterling mount. Media polls are failing to indicate a clear result, and the FX market is getting nervous. And yet, a Brexit seems unlikely and when markets price in the unlikely—even partially—it’s worth taking the other side.
Why A Brexit Still Seems Remote
The risk of a Brexit is mostly economic. Warnings of the financial calamity that could hit the UK have been coming from notable economists from the UK Treasury but the most noteworthy and important warning came from the Bank of England.
The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, delivered a stark warning in his latest conference. Carney laid out a rather bleak scenario in case Britons choose to exit the union. The BoE Governor stressed that growth would falter, unemployment would jump and inflation could spin out of control. Continue reading "Sterling Set for Strong Rebound In July"→
Which currency is set to outperform? Is it the US Dollar or the Pound Sterling? Consider if you will that, despite some notable headwinds, the Fed is moving closer to a rate hike. For many, that suggests the Dollar as the best bet for the next 12 months. Especially with unemployment at 5.3% and core CPI now rebounding to 1.8% Year on Year. Yet some US data releases are still only "mildly" positive; for example gains in wages, slowed from 2.3% to just 2%.
On the other side of the Atlantic the Bank of England has signaled that it's warming up towards a rate hike, too. Yet, unlike in the US, gains in wages have been rising by 3.2% Year on Year. Moreover, GDP has been growing at a pace of 0.4% (QoQ) in Q1, far better than the negative figure posted by the US. So is the Sterling looking better than the Dollar? Not exactly. Then is the Dollar looking better than Sterling? The answer is, once again, not exactly. But here's the thing. Continue reading "Hedge Your Dollars With Pounds?"→
It's that time of year again when everyone who is considered an "expert" comes out of their ivory towers and makes their annual market predictions for the New Year.
It's time to kiss those predictions goodbye.
I can honestly say that I wish I had a crystal ball like these other forecasters, but that's not quite how the markets work. You see, markets don't give a "Rats A**" about what forecasters say or what predictions economists make. The market is the only true voice out there.
Think about that for a moment. How many predictions do you remember that were even close to being spot on a year in advance? I remember several forecasts for 2010 and most of them were far from accurate.
Does it make any sense to trade on a year-end forecast, not knowing what can happen in this crazy world we live in? It doesn't make any sense to me or to other professional traders who never trade based on year-end predictions.
So let's get back to reality and take a look back on 2010 to see what the big trends are showing for 2011.