Fiat Majors Vs. Gold In 2018

It’s time for my traditional yearly post about the dynamics of “modern” money (fiat) compared to the “old” or “perpetual” money (gold) in the current year.

Fiat money is represented by 7 currencies: US Dollar (USD) and 6 components of the US Dollar Index (DXY) placed by weight: Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish kKrona (SEK) and the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Before we get down to the results of 2018, let us see how did you see the future back at the end of December 2017.

fiat

The most of you bet that the king currency (USD) would beat all the rest in 2018. Your second favorite is the single currency (EUR), which is the top rival of USD.

There could be at least two reasons for this ballot result a year ago. The first one is more obvious and is coming from the country distribution of the INO.com web traffic as more than half of it comes from the United States. The other reason is also logical as the US Dollar was the top loser last year with -10% and you could bet on it using the knowledge about the “Pendulum effect”, which pushes laggards to the top.

Now let’s move on to the results of 2018. Continue reading "Fiat Majors Vs. Gold In 2018"

EUR/USD Update: Another Chance For Rally

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - EUR/USD


Last month I shared with you a trade setup for a single currency against the Fiat King. There were two charts posted: one was showing the global map and the other one was dedicated to the short-term trade setup.

You could have booked around 1.9% or more than 200 pips by the end of the March of my earlier trade idea, where I recommended buying the euro on the dips below 1.23. The ultimate target was set according to the Fibonacci ratio projections between the $1.2647 and the $1.3139 per 1 Euro. The risk was limited below the $1.2150, and it was not materialized since then.

Indeed, the Euro dipped below $1.23 down to the $1.2240 area as planned. But on the move to the upside, it only advanced as high as $1.2477 on the 27th of March still gaining more than you could have risked. The EUR/USD couldn’t overcome the earlier top beyond $1.2556, and it retreated after that.

In this post, I updated the EUR/USD chart for you as the short-term chart structure has changed and it offers another trading opportunity. Continue reading "EUR/USD Update: Another Chance For Rally"

Don't Miss Another EUR/USD Rally

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - EUR/USD


I spotted a promising trading opportunity in the Foreign Exchange market, and I would like to share it with you today as the setup is ready.

Before that, I would like to give you some insight about the global map for the pair of the single currency against the king currency (EUR/USD) to let you know where other opportunities could emerge as time goes by.

Chart 1. EUR/USD Monthly: Make It Or Break It

EUR/USD
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

On the chart above, we can see the magic power of trends highlighted in blue for the upmove and in red for the current long-lasting correction. The former already took 115 months to unfold exceeding the period of the preceding upmove (93 months) significantly. This is what we always should bear in mind about the nature of corrections – they last longer than the moves they retrace. Continue reading "Don't Miss Another EUR/USD Rally"

Top Fiat Money Vs. Gold: What Shines Brighter in 2016?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It becomes a tradition to post a performance review of the top currencies vs. gold at the beginning of the new year.

Fiat money is represented by 7 currencies: The US dollar (USD) and 6 components of the US dollar index (DXY) placed by weight: euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF).

Chart 1. Year-To-Date Dynamics Of Top 7 Currencies Versus Gold: No Comment

Chart 1. Year-To-Date Dynamics Of Top 7 Currencies Versus Gold
Diagram by Aibek Burabayev; Source: tradingview.com

The Euronews agency has a special rubric called “No comment” where they show video news without commentary as the picture speaks for itself when something dramatic, awful or really amazing is shown. I think the above diagram also speaks for itself and it shows the drama where the gold just smashed all of the fiat currencies as none of them could escape. None! Continue reading "Top Fiat Money Vs. Gold: What Shines Brighter in 2016?"

Euro: No Longer a One-Way Bet

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


It’s been barely five months since the Brexit referendum and yet here we are again, another European referendum, another political battle. This time around, it is Italy’s future in the balance and the Euro’s integrity at stake.

This upcoming referendum, due on Sunday, is a vote for constitutional reform that will abolish Italy’s dual parliamentarian system. Currently, Italy’s Parliament has two chambers, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. And, peculiar as it may sound, both have the same powers, but rather than balance they simply paralyze one another.

Why It Matters For The Euro

So, that begs the question, why is a referendum in Italy so important for the Euro? In one word: Banks. In the past few months, the Eurozone economy has started to show some signs of life. Among the data releases, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.7, retail sales in Germany has their strongest monthly gain in five years, and the Eurozone trade balance surplus rose by 37.8% over last year. Even in Italy, the Manufacturing PMI is holding above the 50 level, signaling expansion. All of which is "courtesy of a low Euro” that benefits European exporters. And yet, core inflation in the Eurozone is incredibly low at 0.8% and credit activity is weak, with the M3 level turning stagnant. Even the ECB’s €80 billion in monthly liquidity operations have thus far been insufficient to revive credit growth which is essential for the Euro recovery. At the heart of the problem is Europe’s banking system and its need to capitalize. Continue reading "Euro: No Longer a One-Way Bet"