EUR/USD Update: Another Chance For Rally

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - EUR/USD


Last month I shared with you a trade setup for a single currency against the Fiat King. There were two charts posted: one was showing the global map and the other one was dedicated to the short-term trade setup.

You could have booked around 1.9% or more than 200 pips by the end of the March of my earlier trade idea, where I recommended buying the euro on the dips below 1.23. The ultimate target was set according to the Fibonacci ratio projections between the $1.2647 and the $1.3139 per 1 Euro. The risk was limited below the $1.2150, and it was not materialized since then.

Indeed, the Euro dipped below $1.23 down to the $1.2240 area as planned. But on the move to the upside, it only advanced as high as $1.2477 on the 27th of March still gaining more than you could have risked. The EUR/USD couldn’t overcome the earlier top beyond $1.2556, and it retreated after that.

In this post, I updated the EUR/USD chart for you as the short-term chart structure has changed and it offers another trading opportunity. Continue reading "EUR/USD Update: Another Chance For Rally"

Don't Miss Another EUR/USD Rally

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - EUR/USD


I spotted a promising trading opportunity in the Foreign Exchange market, and I would like to share it with you today as the setup is ready.

Before that, I would like to give you some insight about the global map for the pair of the single currency against the king currency (EUR/USD) to let you know where other opportunities could emerge as time goes by.

Chart 1. EUR/USD Monthly: Make It Or Break It

EUR/USD
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

On the chart above, we can see the magic power of trends highlighted in blue for the upmove and in red for the current long-lasting correction. The former already took 115 months to unfold exceeding the period of the preceding upmove (93 months) significantly. This is what we always should bear in mind about the nature of corrections – they last longer than the moves they retrace. Continue reading "Don't Miss Another EUR/USD Rally"

Top Fiat Money Vs. Gold: What Shines Brighter in 2016?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It becomes a tradition to post a performance review of the top currencies vs. gold at the beginning of the new year.

Fiat money is represented by 7 currencies: The US dollar (USD) and 6 components of the US dollar index (DXY) placed by weight: euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF).

Chart 1. Year-To-Date Dynamics Of Top 7 Currencies Versus Gold: No Comment

Chart 1. Year-To-Date Dynamics Of Top 7 Currencies Versus Gold
Diagram by Aibek Burabayev; Source: tradingview.com

The Euronews agency has a special rubric called “No comment” where they show video news without commentary as the picture speaks for itself when something dramatic, awful or really amazing is shown. I think the above diagram also speaks for itself and it shows the drama where the gold just smashed all of the fiat currencies as none of them could escape. None! Continue reading "Top Fiat Money Vs. Gold: What Shines Brighter in 2016?"

Euro: No Longer a One-Way Bet

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


It’s been barely five months since the Brexit referendum and yet here we are again, another European referendum, another political battle. This time around, it is Italy’s future in the balance and the Euro’s integrity at stake.

This upcoming referendum, due on Sunday, is a vote for constitutional reform that will abolish Italy’s dual parliamentarian system. Currently, Italy’s Parliament has two chambers, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. And, peculiar as it may sound, both have the same powers, but rather than balance they simply paralyze one another.

Why It Matters For The Euro

So, that begs the question, why is a referendum in Italy so important for the Euro? In one word: Banks. In the past few months, the Eurozone economy has started to show some signs of life. Among the data releases, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.7, retail sales in Germany has their strongest monthly gain in five years, and the Eurozone trade balance surplus rose by 37.8% over last year. Even in Italy, the Manufacturing PMI is holding above the 50 level, signaling expansion. All of which is "courtesy of a low Euro” that benefits European exporters. And yet, core inflation in the Eurozone is incredibly low at 0.8% and credit activity is weak, with the M3 level turning stagnant. Even the ECB’s €80 billion in monthly liquidity operations have thus far been insufficient to revive credit growth which is essential for the Euro recovery. At the heart of the problem is Europe’s banking system and its need to capitalize. Continue reading "Euro: No Longer a One-Way Bet"

Deutsche Bank Woes To Hit Euro

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Peril is on the horizon for the Eurozone and its currency, the Euro. The survival of Deutsche Bank, the largest lender in the Eurozone, is at risk. And even more worryingly, the trouble brewing at the bank is not isolated but is rather part of a wider systemic risk across the Eurozone banking system. As the conundrum unfolds and radiates across the region, the Euro will not be spared.

Eurozone Banks On The Balance

The Deutsche Bank crisis was seemingly ignited in mid-September when the US Department of Justice announced its intention to fine Deutsche Bank $14 billion to settle claims of wrongdoing during the mortgage crisis of 2008. Last week, it was reported that Deutsche Bank was on the verge of reaching a settlement with the Justice Department which would reduce the fine to $5.4 billion. Nevertheless, and regardless of the amount, with Deutsche Bank’s total capitalization at $18 billion, it’s clear the bank does not have sufficient capital to pay such a hefty fine. The fact is that troubles within the Eurozone banks, and specifically in Deutsche Bank, have been brewing for a while. Continue reading "Deutsche Bank Woes To Hit Euro"