Tag: the gold report

Put Your Trust in Precious Metals, Not Governments

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The Gold Report: You've expressed astonishment at the record highs of world stock exchanges. Given the sluggish world economy, can we expect this trend to end, or have equities become completely disconnected from economic reality?

Leonard Melman: Equities have become somewhat disconnected from economic reality. We've heard comments from the European Central Bank, the U.S. Treasury and the Bank of Japan calling for more inflation because dramatic action is needed to improve the world economy. How does that coincide with the bull markets in equities?

TGR: Is there a connection between these bull markets and quantitative easing (QE)? Continue reading "Put Your Trust in Precious Metals, Not Governments" →

Gold Stock Tricks and Treats

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The Gold Report: It's Halloween and we remain in the clutches of a tricky market for junior resource equities. What are your perspectives on how long it's going to take before investors see another treat-filled year like 2010?

Malcolm Gissen: The last couple of years have been frightening for investors, in both gold commodities and gold stocks. Gold prices have been rising the last few weeks, allowing some people hope, but I don't expect an appreciable change in the gold price and the appeal of gold mining companies until 2015. Continue reading "Gold Stock Tricks and Treats" →

The Peerless Way to Precious Metal Profits

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The Gold Report: In a July research report, you wrote that the ongoing decline from the all-time high in the gold price may represent a correction of the last large up leg, which some say began in 2009 or mid-2008. Or it may represent a correction of the entire 1999 - 2011 advance in the gold price. Which is it? And has that correction run its course?

Tom Szabo: We are in a correction of the 20082011 rally and it is ongoing. Big picture, the gold price needs to drop below $1,155/ounce ($1,155/oz) and then subsequently below $1,067/oz before this would represent a correction of the entire gold cycle that goes back to 1999. We haven't seen such a decline at this point so we can't conclude that it's a larger correction.

TGR: We've seen modest upward momentum in the gold price since the lows of April. Is there enough momentum to invest in gold equities? Continue reading "The Peerless Way to Precious Metal Profits" →

Casey's Louis James Warns: 'Don't Try to Time the Market'

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The Gold Report: You warn investors against trying to time the market. If even experts don't know a bottom until it's behind them, how do regular investors know when to invest, when to buy the next tranches and when to cut losses?

Louis James: The wisdom of not trying to time the market is tried and true. Benjamin Graham said the same thing 60 years ago. I shouldn't have to defend this premise. Even though investors all know it, they fervently wish it weren't so; they just can't help themselves.

You can't time the market. A bureaucrat in Washington can open his mouth and send the price of gold up or down 5% in an afternoon.

Fortunately, we can look for value. Value tends to be slippery in the junior sector when you have a bunch of companies that, as Doug Casey famously says, are little better than burning matches. They have no income. Even the biggest players in the field are so volatile that Benjamin Graham would never touch them.

However, there are things that we can look for. We can compare companies to their peers. We can look at the ounces in the ground and see if something is out of whack. We can look at cash in the bank. The market is so beat up now that some companies with viable projects are trading for cash or less. It's actually possible in a market this beat up to make relatively low-risk acquisitions. Continue reading "Casey's Louis James Warns: 'Don't Try to Time the Market'" →

Finding Bargains Down Under

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The Gold Report: You recently said that this is your fourth cycle in a commodity sector in your 40-year career. Where are we in this current cycle, and how do you determine that?

Rick Rule: The bottom is usually marked by a two- or three-week period of capitulation selling followed by a standoff, where both the buyers and the sellers are exhausted. We haven't seen that yet. We've had two or three different periods with a couple of days of capitulation selling but not a two-week period as we saw in 2000.

I wouldn't be surprised if the downturn was four years, which suggests we have a year and a half to two years before we clean out the excesses. The junior sector is substantially overpopulated with companies, managers and agents. There needs to be a major cleansing over the next 18 months.

TGR: Will it be more cleansing or more mergers and acquisitions? Continue reading "Finding Bargains Down Under" →