Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures settled last Friday in New York at 1,232 an ounce while currently trading at 1,224 down about $8 for the trading week while also hitting a fresh contract low earlier in the trading session today all the way down to 1,212 as this market remains bearish, but rallied off of a somewhat negative U.S. unemployment number. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is to the downside and if you have read any of my previous blogs you understand that I am bearish gold and the precious metals across the board. If you're short, a futures contract continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 1,245 on the closing basis only as I still think the 1,200 level is broken possibly next week. The U.S. stock market is higher once again today as that is where money flows are headed and out of the precious metals. I see no reason to own gold as I still think historically speaking prices look expensive and I think we can trade down to the 1,125 level in the coming months ahead so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss as today's slight gains were based on profit-taking only. Large hedge funds are short a record amount of gold contracts as they still believe lower prices are ahead as the volatility remains relatively low. However, I don't think that will last much longer.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Buying Call Options - Defining Risk, Optimizing Time Value and Realizing Gains

Options can provide an alternative approach to the traditional buy and hold strategy. Buying call options can add value to one’s portfolio via leveraging a small amount of cash while defining risk with unlimited upside potential. Simply put, buying a call option is bullish in nature as the buyer is positioning the trade with the thesis that the underlying shares will increase in value. When one buys a call option, she is buying the right to purchase shares at a specific price on a specific date in the future for a nominal price. In this scenario, the buyer thinks the shares are undervalued hence why she is willing to buy the option now to secure the right to purchase shares in the future at a higher price. If the shares approach the specific price or rise above the specific price before the expiration date, then the underlying option becomes more valuable. This more valuable option can now be sold higher than when she purchased the contact to realize gains. Regarding percent, call options can be very profitable and scaled as needed. The risk in buying call options is capped based on the amount of the option itself thus downside risk is defined, and upside potential is great. Here, I’ll discuss buying call options along with my approach, strategy and real-world outcomes.

Anatomy of Buying Calls

I rarely buy call options however in opportunistic scenarios the risk-reward is very favorable given a decent time horizon. Nominal amounts of cash can be deployed in opportunistic scenarios to capitalize on sell-offs in high-quality stocks. Buying calls can be implemented as a means to leverage cash on hand without committing to purchasing the underlying shares of the company with the end goal of capitalizing on share appreciation via the option contract. The option price is determined by two variables, time and intrinsic value. The amount of time until expiration of the contract determines the time value, the longer the contract will translate into more time value in the contract (Figure 1). Generally speaking, if the underlying stock falls in value (moving away from the strike price), then the option will decrease as a function of time value. Alternatively, if the underlying stock appreciates (moving towards the strike price), then the option will increase in value as a function of time value. As the stock moves away or towards the strike price, the underlying stock is less likely (decrease in option value) and more likely (increase in option value) to reach the strike price, respectively hence the change in option value.

Intrinsic value isn’t applicable here until the underlying security breaks through the agreed upon price (strike price) before expiration. Every penny that the stock appreciates beyond the strike price is a penny of intrinsic value that increases the value of the contract. Any increase in the stock price will result in an increase in the option value regardless. Continue reading "Buying Call Options - Defining Risk, Optimizing Time Value and Realizing Gains"

Lackluster Jobs Report and Rising Trade Tensions

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market is ending the week just like it has spent most of the week, mixed. The NASDAQ is down on the day but will end the week in positive territory overall having bounced off support by way of the 50-day moving average and eeking out a gain of +.66%. The S&P 500 is following suit by gaining +.44%, and the DOW has fallen just short posting a weekly loss of -.23%.

Jobs Report

The Labor Department announced that The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs last month vs. an expected gain of 190,000. While the headline jobs growth number for July missed expectations, June's figures were revised substantially higher up to 248,000 from 213,000. Plus, wage growth met expectations growing by +2.7% in July on a year-over-year basis. Continue reading "Lackluster Jobs Report and Rising Trade Tensions"

Trade Tensions Overshadow Apple Earnings

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market started out the day in positive territory mostly due to positive earnings for Apple Inc. (AAPL), which hit an all-time high of $201.32 and still trading +5% higher on the day. However, trade tensions between the U.S. and China have taken control of the market action and pushed stocks lower.

The Trump administration's unpredictability on trade has been in the spotlight in the last 24 hours after reports that talks between Washington D.C. and Beijing were set to resume were quickly overtaken by a threat to raise tariffs by 25%, instead of the initially proposed 10%, on $200 billion worth of imported Chinese goods. Of course, China vowed to retaliate if the United States slapped further tariffs.

Trade Tensions Overshadow Apple Earnings

The Fed decision, which is due at 2 pm EDT today is also weighing on traders minds. While a rise in interest rates is not expected today, discussion on trade or where the Fed is thinking of heading could be on the table and might provide clues as to their future moves. Will they still act on the two remaining rate hikes that they had mentioned earlier in the year? Continue reading "Trade Tensions Overshadow Apple Earnings"

NASDAQ Breaks Through Key Technical Support

Hello traders everywhere. The NASDAQ has broken through a key technical support level at $7649.58 where the 50-day moving average stands trading -1.3% lower on the day. The fall lower comes on the heels of a lackluster Friday trade where we saw the NASDAQ fall -1.5% to close out the week. We'll have to watch and see if the index continues lower or if it will bounce off support and head higher having tested the 50-day MA twice in the last two months before bouncing off it and heading higher. Will the third time prove to be different?

Key Technical Support

The reason for the sharp sell-off can be directly attributed to the FAANG stocks as they continue to be put under selling pressure. The leader of the tech sell-off continues to be Facebook Inc (FB) as it sheds another -3.7% on the day continuing its historic three-day drop. Not to be outdone though Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is down -4.7%, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) -1.6%, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) -1.5% and Apple Inc. (AAPL) -.6%. Continue reading "NASDAQ Breaks Through Key Technical Support"