Category: General

Is Google A Buy?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today's post is by Jeff Braun of The Market Guardian. Today Jeff is taking a look at the giant we all know as Google. As hard as it seems to find a long position these days, Jeff thinks there may be one right under our noses. So sit back and enjoy as Jeff analyzes the giant.

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Google remains a global leader in search, internet advertising! It was just announced today that Google Inc. (GOOG) expanded its lead in the U.S. Internet search market in February at the expense of rivals Yahoo Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Ask.com, according to data published Tuesday by Hitwise Pty. Ltd. There is only a small amount of non-financial companies with $10+ billion of net cash on the books. The optionality of that war chest in this environment is huge. That plus core business spells attractive here to me.

Google (GOOG) may soon see increased federal sales as one of the beneficiaries of an expected uptick in federal spending on technology. It is well known that Federal agencies are testing Google tools as we speak and a key fan is Obama’s new tech hire!

Google (GOOG) just continues to find new markets to enter and in each new market they find ways to be more efficient and a better value than industry competitors such as print media and ad agencies. They will enable the Internet to compete in markets and methods we haven’t yet conceived. And the markets they are already attacking are huge providing abundant growth opportunities well into the future. I am convinced the conversion process of brick and mortar to digital has just begun.

I am thinking Twitter will get sold for $150m to $250m in the next 24 months. Will Google be the one buying them? Google has a short message for those wondering whether the search giant will soon buy the micro-blogging site Twitter: CEO Eric Schmidt “unlikely”

Here are some facts about Google (GOOG)

The historical high for (GOOG) was 741.79 on the 6th of November 2007. It has been 470 days since the historical high price.

The lowest price was 100.01 on the 3rd of September 2004. It has been 1629 days since that low price.

The largest volume day was the 20th of January 2006 when 41,182,900 shares were traded. It has been 1125 days since that big volume day.

The lowest volume day was the 24th of December 2007 when only 1,628,300 shares changed hands. That was 421 days ago.

Between 275-325 It may be time to start accumulating shares. 2-4 years from now I think you will be VERY happy.

Best of luck in the markets,

Jeff Braun

www.themarketguardian.com

How to tell or refer a friend (short video)

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What do you think? Is it time to consider a long position in GOOG? Be sure to comment and let us know your thoughts. For more on Jeff be sure to visit The Market Guardian.

New Downside Targets For Dow, S&P - IBD Article

Posted on by lindsay

BY TRANG HO
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 3/9/2009

Now that the Dow and S&P 500 have blown through their 2002 bear-market lows and regressed to levels not seen since 1996, technical analysts are revising their targets downward.

Based on Fibonacci and Elliott Wave theory analysis, the next level of chart support for the S&P 500 would be 640, according to Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor's. That's down 5.40% from Monday's close of 676.53.

If the S&P 500 breaks below 600, Arbeter sees the next support level at 557, or down another 17.67%. That level also meets up with an uptrend line connecting the 1932 bear market low to the troughs from 1942, 1974 and 1982.

Although chart support levels show areas of significant buying in the past, and the uptrend line has served as a floor for the past 77 years, Arbeter says the behavior in this market differs from other bears.

"We're not seeing enough fear in the options market. We haven't seen a big increase in the put-call ratio nor a spike higher in the volatility indexes," Arbeter said. "Until we start seeing more fear in the options market, we won't get to the low."

Unlike in the past, the market appears to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one.

"It's not properly discounting the bad news that keeps coming out," Arbeter added. "All the surprises over the last year have been downside surprises. The fundamental community continues to play catch-up on the downside."

Downside Of Dow

The Dow closed Monday at 6547.05, down 53.89% from its all-time peak of 14,198 on Oct. 12, 2007. The next target for the Dow is 6000, down 8.37% from Monday's close, says Louise Yamada, managing director at Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors.

Her secondary target is 4000. She sees the S&P falling to 400-600. It could take a week, a month, a year or more to reach the target.

"Our up/down and volume momentum indicators have been oversold since May, which suggests there's still selling pressure coming into the market even when there are rallies," Yamada said. "The market is suffering from deleveraging of 30 to 40 times leverage that took place over the past few years."

The bottoming process between 2002 and 2003 took at least a year, during which technical indicators improved. But there are no signs of such improvement now, Yamada says.

Today's stock market is commonly referred to as the worst since the Great Depression. If the 1930s bear market — in which the Dow plunged 89% — serves as a road map, we're halfway to the light at the end of the tunnel. That bear market lasted 34 months from peak to trough. This bear is in its 17th month.

The market's recent action suggests hope has waned that government stimulus plans will keep this bear market from being as bad or lasting as long as the 1930s bear.

Uptick Rule Consequences

In fact, some government action may be making it worse. Eliminating the uptick rule for short selling on July 6, 2007, has sent the market tumbling harder than in the past, argues Adam Hewison, co-founder of Marketclub.com.

The uptick rule for short selling, established by the SEC in 1934, required that every short sale be entered at a price higher than that of the previous trade. It aimed to prevent short sellers, who make money when stocks fall, from adding to the downward pressure of a falling stock. "With the uptick rule, (short sellers) couldn't pummel companies as quickly," Hewison said.

He projects the Dow will fall to 5000, down 23.63% from Monday's close. He sees the Nasdaq composite at 1000, down 21.18%. He expects the S&P 500 to fall to 500, down 26.09%.

Hewison's long view: The market will sputter sideways until the next super bull cycle starts sometime between 2018 and 2020. "This isn't going to be the V-shaped turnaround that everyone thought it was going to be," he said.

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See Original Post Here: http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=28&issue=20090309
Investors Business Daily

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2:30 (EST) CNBC - Adam Analyzes The Markets - LIVE

Posted on by lindsay

Don't miss Adam today on CNBC. He will be talking about the outlook of the general market. Tune in at 2:30 (EST) where he will be interviewed by CNBC's Melissa Francis.

If you can't make it in front of your TV today, check back after the show to see a video of Adam's appearance and don't forget to leave us a comment with you own market analysis.

Don't forget to use the share it tools below to send this post your other trading pals. Just click and share.

Have a great trading day,

Lindsay Thompson
Director of New Business Development
INO.com & MarketClub

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A Technical Look At Some Top Hedge Fund Holdings

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today I've asked the editor from marketfolly.com and give us their expert opinions on how the best and the brightest of the hedge fund managers. Or are they the best and brightest? Are they lucky, or good sales people? Let me know in the comments and take a trip over to marketfolly.com, as they track 35+ prominent hedge funds through 13F filings where they are required to disclose their long equity, options, and note positions to the SEC.  (They aren't required to disclose their shorts or positions in other markets).

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Firstly, we'll look at David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital.  If you're unfamiliar with him, you can read up on him here.  In a recent investor letter, Einhorn mentioned that he was long Gold due to threats of inflation and risks in paper currencies.  He mentioned that the US Dollar was being debased as the Federal Reserve is forced to expand its balance sheet and thus he expects Gold to rise as the dollar declines.  So, let's take a quick look at the technicals through GLD (the Gold Trust ETF).

Let's look at GLD over a yearly timeframe just to get the big picture.  It had seen a period of lower highs and lower lows and then broke out of that trendline (illustrated in green below) here in the new year as investors sought refuge from the brutal markets.  And, some might argue that a re-test of that trendline is in order.

SEE CHART HERE

Turning to a 6 month timeframe, we see that GLD has seen some selling pressure.  However, it still maintains its trend line over the 6 month timeframe (illustrated below in green).  Additionally, the past resistance at $87 has now become support (illustrated with the horizontal purple line) and we would look for GLD to successfully test this support line.  Conveniently, the 50 day moving average (blue line) also acts as support and is hovering around the $87 level.  So, the past resistance, the 50 day moving average, and the trend line have all converged to provide near-term support for GLD.  Should GLD fall beneath these important levels of near-term support, it could really start to move lower as the volume has begun to creep up.  A test of this support is almost imminent and will dictate which way the ETF will swing so make sure you watch it carefully to determine if the trendline holds.  So, should you agree with Einhorn's stance, now you can better gauge the price action to determine a proper entry or exit point.

SEE CHART HERE

Next, let's take a look at Soros Fund Management ran by legendary investor George Soros.  Please click here to continue article.

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