Who Let The DOGE Out?

Last week the top ten cryptocurrencies ranking was reshuffled as Dogecoin (DOGE) shot straight to the eighth place with a market cap just under $18 billion. If we skip stable coins and exchange related coin BNB then this meme coin seized the #4 spot right below the Ripple (XRP).

If we look at the seven-day performance of top ten cryptos in the table below – none of them could boast the triple digit gain that we see in Dogecoin with +125% growth.

If this rally stays intact, the Ripple could lose its #3 spot soon. The price of the DOGE should add another 1/3 to 18 cents for this to happen.

top 10 coins

Source: coinmarketcap.com

What has fueled such a strong rally of this coin? The main reason is the hope that comes with the final takeover of Twitter by Elon Musk, who is a big fan of the DOGE and he pledged to support this meme coin.

Let me show you the anatomy of the rally in the 3-hour chart below. Continue reading "Who Let The DOGE Out?"

3 Energy Stocks for the Rest of 2022

While the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter, high inflation, weak third-quarter corporate earnings, and fears of another aggressive rate hike by the Fed are raising the possibility of a recession in the next 12 months.

With investors anticipating a broad slowdown, this year could be the worst year for the stock market since the 2008 financial crisis.

However, a corresponding slowdown in the energy demand can be safely ruled out due to supply-side constraints caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels/day.

How soon do you think Brent crude will return to $100 per barrel?

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According to the short-term energy outlook released by the U.S Energy Information Administration, the U.S. residential price of electricity will average 14.9 cents per kilowatt hour in 2022, up 8% from 2021. Higher retail electricity prices largely reflect an increase in wholesale power prices, driven by higher natural gas prices.

US electricity generation by source

Source: www.eia.gov

Besides, energy demand is expected to grow in the long run due to increased economic activity and the effects of climate change. The global energy as a service market is projected to grow at a 7.6% CAGR to reach $112.7 billion by 2030.

Hence, it would be opportune to load up on energy stocks ConocoPhillips (COP), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR), and Tidewater Inc. (TDW) as some technical indicators point to their upside. Continue reading "3 Energy Stocks for the Rest of 2022"

The Downside of High-Reward, High-Risk Investing

Over the past number of years, the best investments nearly all came out of the technology sector. We had terms like the FANNG stocks coined, we were told value-investing was dead, and year after year, the stable dividend-paying stocks just slowly trailed behind high-flying technology companies.

But, towards the end of November 2021, things began to change.

In November of 2021, the Nasdaq was up 130% on a five-year chart but is now up just 61%. The same chart shows the Dow was up 55% when the NASDAQ hit its peak but is now up just 37% over the last five years. On a year-to-date chart, the NASDAQ is down 31%, while the Dow is off just 11%.

If you look at individual technology stocks, it can get even worse. For example, Tesla is down 44% year-to-date, while Meta is off more than 70% since the start of the year.

But, something like boring old Coke-Cola, is flat on the year. And I should mention Coke is yielding a 2.96% dividend, which, if calculated into the year-to-date return, would put your investment ahead for 2022. Not very many big-name NASDAQ technology stocks can say that.

Every investor wants a big return. Seeing a stock climb 10, 20, 30 percent, or more in a single year. And it certainly beats seeing a stock climb a measly 4 to 6 percent.

However, the more important thing investors need to remember is that when stocks rise by double digits or more, they probably carry a lot more risk than a stock that hardly looks alive.

The Dow Jones Industrial average is full of stocks that creep along. They don't seem like suitable investments if you look at them on one-year charts. But, over decades, these stocks have been outstanding performers, especially if you add dividends, when considering their total returns.

Furthermore, the slow growth comes with low, or at the very least, much lower risk than the higher return stocks. That low risk could be what keeps you from making a rash decision with your portfolio.

When a holding in your account is down 40 or 50 percent in a year, it is easy to simply say you are cutting your losses and selling the stock.

However, history has proven the best method of investing is a long-term buy and hold. And that means holding stocks when they are down or lost massive amounts of value. Continue reading "The Downside of High-Reward, High-Risk Investing"

2 Strong Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist in Q4

Influenced by hotter-than-expected inflation and employment data for September, the Fed will most likely announce another aggressive rate hike in its meeting next week, raising recession odds. Goldman Sachs believes there is a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

However, despite lingering macro headwinds, the stock market witnessed a relief rally since mid-October, with initial corporate earnings beats boosting investor sentiment. The S&P 500 gained close to 7% over this period.

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist Mike Wilson said that the stock market could see a 13% rally in the near term. However, we believe the S&P 500 needs to trade above its 200-day moving average to find strong support.

Are you optimistic about the S&P 500 trading above its 200-day moving average by the end of the year?

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Investors doubt the market's continued rally following disappointing big tech earnings, but one could take advantage of the strong uptrend in O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) and Poshmark, Inc. (POSH) by watching them closely.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)

ORLY and its subsidiaries operate as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. It has a market capitalization of $49.12 billion.

Over the last three years, ORLY has grown its revenue at an 11.9% CAGR, while the company's EBITDA has grown at a 15.2% CAGR.

For the second quarter ended June 30, 2022, ORLY’s sales came in at $3.67 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year. Its gross profit increased 3.2% year-over-year to $1.88 billion. In addition, its operating income increased marginally year-over-year to $798.55 million. Continue reading "2 Strong Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist in Q4"

Not All Gold Miners Are Created Equal

It’s been a challenging two years for investors in the gold space, with the metals making no progress since Q3 2020 and the Gold Miners Index (GDX) suffering a 52% decline from its highs.

This violent bear market can be attributed to significant margin compression for most gold producers, with them being hit by inflationary pressures (fuel, steel, cyanide, labor) and the impact of a lower gold price on sales.

The result? Margins are down over 25% on average from Q3 2020 peak levels.

GDX Chart

(Source: TC2000.com)

On the surface, this might not seem like a very attractive investment thesis given that gold producers are price-takers, gold continues to trend lower, and they’re already seeing margin compression at $1,660/oz.

However, the 52% correction in the GDX has left sector-wide valuations at their lowest levels since 2018, when all-in-sustaining cost margins were at $200/oz, nowhere near the $500/oz margins currently.

Hence, I believe this negativity is more than priced into the sector, especially if gold can find a floor near $1,600/oz, which looks likely given that we have extreme pessimism.

That said, not all miners are created equal, so it’s essential to focus on quality and those names bucking the margin trend. In this update, we’ll look at two names trading at deep discounts to net asset value that have outstanding business models: Continue reading "Not All Gold Miners Are Created Equal"