Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran. Gold stocks put in a secular bear market bottom in 2000 just as the US and many global economies were topping out.
Then came the era that NFTRH has labeled ‘Inflation onDemand’ (IoD). The economy was successfully* inflated by Alan Greenspan early in the decade as easy monetary policy fomented an epic credit bubble, which took over and did the heavy lifting for a cyclical bull market and buoyant economy that terminated hard in 2007/2008.
During this time of IoD ‘inflation bulls’ and commodity bulls who had all the answers for a newly inflation-phobic public emerged and took center stage. Misperceptions were formed, cemented and driven home. Nowhere were the misperceptions more intensely and dangerously embedded than the gold stock sector, which at its core is different than most commodity sectors and indeed, most stock sectors. Introducing another one of our ‘busy’ charts to illustrate…
At the moment, crude oil seems to be acting as a free agent instead of in concert with the commodity complex that would play a role in signaling the effects (or lack thereof) of the inflation to date. The target off this formation, if it holds, is 110 or so. But as noted in a previous post, a drive toward 110 would load a significantly higher target, which we have been charting in NFTRH over the last several weeks by monthly chart. Continue reading "Crude Oil Breakout & Some Implications"→
The Gold Report: Jocelyn, I'm looking at a portfolio of junior precious metals mining stocks, and all I can see is red ink. With the exception of MAG Silver Corp. (MAG:TSX; MVG:NYSE), all in that group are underwater for the past 52 weeks. We are currently in a down-trending precious metals market, and I'm interested to know if catalysts matter anymore.
Jocelyn August: Catalysts absolutely do matter right now. We may see a catalyst occur in a company followed by a 2% uptick in its stock, on the same day the sector as a whole may be down 25%. We may see that even in this price environment. If you were aware of that catalyst and you bet on it, you would actually have fared better than the sector on that day. By comparison it actually did help the stock price.
"Catalysts absolutely do matter right now."
Conversely, we also see a fair amount of catalysts that might have a negative consequence to the stock price, particularly when it comes to permit approval decisions that may go the wrong way for the company. You could get pretty badly burned. For example, back in early October 2012, Pacific Booker Minerals Inc. (BKM:TSX.V; PBM:NYSE.A) announced that the environmental assessment permit for its Morrison project in central British Columbia was denied. The stock dropped 66% in one day and then dropped even further in the week. A month after that event, Pacific Booker was down 75% from the day before the announcement. So, catalysts do matter.
The Gold Report: Peter, when we talked in the spring, you were essentially all in on a number of junior resource equities that were trading at what you believed were at or near their lows. Have you changed your course of action or are you still all in?
Peter Grandich: I am still on course. While 2012 may not have been the worst junior resource market by percentage losses, given the prices of metals now versus other markets and other market conditions compared to last year, it was the worst bear market since I entered Wall Street in 1984.
I've been in this market since the late 1980s, when it felt that if gold could just get over $400/ounce (oz), all would be well in the junior market. Now gold is at an average price of $1,600-something for the year, yet most companies did not do well. It is befuddling.