US Dollar On Plan, Attended By Gold/Silver Ratio

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

US dollar (DXY) has activated its Inverted H&S, Gold/Silver maintains its uptrend, watch silver going forward…

I do not make predictions because I do not pretend to be a guru.* But NFTRH has been tracking what has been an uptrend in the US dollar for all of 2021, keeping us well aware of the potentials being realized from late summer into the fall. A higher low was made in May and now a higher high, completing an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that we’ve been projecting since USD put in the theoretical right side shoulder last spring.

Until recently it was a projection. Now it is active after testing the (dashed) neckline, holding the (blue) 50-day average and busting to a new high for the cycle. Simple, no predictions but a heck of a lot of attention and respect for the process.

You can see the three targets we’ve had laid out for the world’s reserve currency, which has logically caused market stress of late. It’s as simple as ‘you live (pump markets) by devaluing the currency, you die (markets correct) when it rebels. Now if the rebellion does not become something more than moderate and should end at target #1, we’ll probably go back to our regularly scheduled programming of pervasive inflation problems on the macro.

As you can see, the three targets are Fibonacci retrace levels. All doable depending on how aggressively risk goes off and man and machine seek liquidity (as opposed to market speculation) in the near term. Of note, the pattern itself has a theoretical measured target of 97. Again, not a prediction but now that the pattern is active a viable objective.

us dollar (dxy)

And speaking of liquidity, the issue is compounded when USD’s fellow Horseman (of the Apocalypse) is riding alongside. Continue reading "US Dollar On Plan, Attended By Gold/Silver Ratio" →

On To The Fourth Quarter Of 2021

Posted on by The INO.com Team

I don't know about you, but I'm glad that September and the third quarter of 2021 are over! I'm ready to head into the fourth quarter with a fresh mindset, and hopefully, the market is too.

On the final day of September trading, the DOW dropped 546.80 points or -1.59%, to close at 33,843.92. The S&P 500 was down -1.19% to 4,307.54, while the NASDAQ fell -0.4% to 14,448.58.

Overall, September was a rough month for equities, with inflation fears, rates rising, and concerns about Chinese property putting pressure on the market. The S&P 500 finished the month down -4.8% for its worst month since March 2020, when the pandemic caused a major market sell-off. In addition, the NASDAQ fell -5.3% for its worst month since March 2020, while the DOW dropped -4.3% for its worst month in 2021. Continue reading "On To The Fourth Quarter Of 2021" →

Earnings Calendar for October 2021

Posted on by The INO.com Team

October means the start of another exciting earnings season on Wall Street.

While the month will start a bit quiet, mid-October will heat up with some of the biggest companies scheduled to report to investors. That means some big opportunities are on the horizon for traders who know how to find big earnings plays.

Most Anticipated Earnings For October 2021

Below are some of the most anticipated scheduled earnings announcements for October Continue reading "Earnings Calendar for October 2021" →

Financials - Clear Runway Ahead?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

The Taper

The Federal Reserve indicated that the central bank is likely to begin withdrawing some of its stimulatory monetary policies before the end of 2021. Although interest rate hikes are likely off in the distance, the economy has reached a point where it no longer needs as much monetary policy support. This pivot in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve sets the stage for the initial reduction in asset purchases and downstream interest rate hikes. As this pivot unfolds, risk appetite towards equities hangs in the balance. The speed at which rate increases hit the markets will be in part contingent upon inflation, employment, and of course, the pandemic backdrop. Inevitably, rates will rise and likely have a negative impact on equities.

A string of robust Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings spooked the markets as a harbinger for the inevitable rise in interest rates. Although rising rates may introduce some systemic risk, the financial cohort is poised to go higher. Moreover, the confluence of rising rates, post-pandemic economic rebound, financially strong balance sheets, a robust housing market, and the easy passage of annual stress tests will be tailwinds for the big banks.

2021 Financial Stress Tests Easily Pass

The recent stress tests were easily passed and indicated that the biggest U.S. banks could easily withstand a severe recession. In addition, all 23 institutions in the 2021 exam remained "well above" minimum required capital levels during a hypothetical economic downturn. Continue reading "Financials - Clear Runway Ahead?" →

Disney - Flexing Its Pricing Power Muscle

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Disney (DIS) has been the sweet spot of capitalizing on the pent-up post-pandemic consumer wave of travel and spending while being the new and preferred stay-at-home content provider via Disney Plus. Over the past couple of years, Disney has rolled out and refined its wildly successful array of streaming initiatives that catered to the stay-at-home economy during the pandemic. These streaming efforts have transformed Disney’s business model, which its legacy businesses will further bolster as the world economy prospects continue to improve and reopen. Taken together, Disney has set itself up to benefit across the board with its streaming initiatives firing on all cylinders and theme parks coming back online. The company has been posting phenomenal streaming numbers that have negated the negative pandemic impact on its theme parks. This streaming-specific narrative will change as the theme park revenue comes back online and flows into the company’s earnings. Due to the tremendous success of Disney Plus, the company is now flexing its pricing power muscle and put through pricing increases on its streaming platform. This pricing power speaks to the value of Disney Plus as a standalone streaming platform while expanding its margins on this new business vertical. Disney presents a compelling buy for long-term investors as its legacy business segments get back online in conjunction with its wildly successful streaming initiatives, all of which have more pricing power down the road.

Pricing Power Flexing

Disney recently pushed through another price increase on its monthly subscription tier for its Hulu offerings. This is on top of price increases that it pushed through on its Disney Plus subscription earlier this year. Clearly, the Disney streaming platforms possess pricing power as the adoption of these steaming properties by consumers becomes more widespread. Part and parcel with these price increases is margin expansion and increased revenue. Disney has forecasted that its Disney Plus streaming platform will have up to 260 million subscribers by 2040. Thus, even marginal price increases will translate into meaningful revenue windfalls for the years to come. Continue reading "Disney - Flexing Its Pricing Power Muscle" →