Myths About Oil And The Dollar

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Oil prices and the dollar have been highly negatively correlated during the oil price collapse. From June 2014 through September 2016, the correlation has been -95%.

In financial articles, it's a commonplace to read that oil prices fell because the dollar strengthened, or oil prices rose because the dollar weakened. This is largely a confusion of correlation with causality.

It is true that there is a linkage. A stronger dollar does render oil prices higher in foreign currencies, thereby adversely affecting demand, a negative factor for oil prices. Continue reading "Myths About Oil And The Dollar" →

Will There Be A November Surprise?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


In its most recent Beige Book, covering late August through early October, released last week, the Federal Reserve noted that although economic “outlooks are positive, contacts in several sectors cite the upcoming presidential election as a source of near-term uncertainty, delaying some business decisions.”

The same could be said for the Fed itself. How much uncertainty has it created and business decisions has it delayed by its endless dawdling and indecisiveness on whether or not to raise interest rates? No matter who wins the vote, the election will end – maybe not on November 8, if it can be shown that someone did, in fact, rig the voting – but eventually, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will become president. But we have no such certitude that the Fed won’t continue to tease the markets about when it will start normalizing monetary policy. Continue reading "Will There Be A November Surprise?" →

Oil Rebounds On Surprise Inventory Drop

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. Oil prices rebounded briefly above $50 a barrel today after government data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, offsetting skepticism over OPEC's planned output cut. Oil prices had fallen earlier on the back of bearish supply data from the American Petroleum Institute. U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 553,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 21, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The Dow rose 50+ points after briefly dropping more than 100 points this morning. The S&P 500 has been neutral today as financials and energy offset losses in real estate and tech. The Nasdaq has fallen -.27% with Apple shedding about 3% on the day.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "Oil Rebounds On Surprise Inventory Drop" →

Japanese Yen Set for a Winter Sell?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Japanese Yen is finally ready for another bearish wave, the kind that could drive the Dollar-Yen trade to retest the 2015 highs. At least, that is what the USD/JPY technical analysis suggests. According to the MACD Index, the selling momentum has weakened, and the pair is just resting above the 100 pivot, a key pivot for the pair. But the question is, are fundamentals ripe for another Yen selloff and a USD/JPY rally?

Weekly MarketClub Chart of USD/JPY

Yen is a Bond Play

As I often reiterate, the Japanese Yen is essentially a bond play. Over the past decade, Japan has been stuck in a long deflationary cycle of falling prices and less than 1% average growth in five years. Moreover, Japanese consumers, as well as Japanese corporations, have had an overwhelming desire to hoard mountains of cash which only exacerbates the stagnation of the Japanese economy. The combination of constant cash hoarding and deflation has created a very robust market for Japanese Government Bonds. The Japanese government has tried to balance the phenomenon by accumulating a jaw-dropping debt of 229% of GDP or roughly $9.5 Trillion, and by trying to spur growth. Instead of balance, however, it has made the Japanese Government Bond market so overwhelmingly large (compared to other sectors), that it essentially dominates the dynamics of the Yen. When demand for Japanese Government Bond rises so does demand for the Yen, and vice versa. Continue reading "Japanese Yen Set for a Winter Sell?" →

This Week's Stock Was Just Released - Projected 14% Gain

Posted on by admin

Our Stock of the Week was released this morning. Are you on the list?

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