Hello MarketClub members everywhere. You've probably heard by now that the Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is not going to be moving one of its plants to Mexico. Finally, the U.S. is waking up and realizing that it cannot be a superpower while having a service economy. Whether you voted for Trump or not, I think we have to give him credit for this save. Hopefully, some of the other promises he made will also help the U.S. economy like lowering taxes and nixing some of the onerous regulations that are handicapping businesses in the U.S.
So far the markets seem to like what they see with all of the indexes higher for the week. The big winner this week was the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) which jumped +1.84%.
However, the biggest winner for the week is Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.Z16.E) which is up +5.32% for the week. The big loser is gold (NYMEX:GC.Z16.E) which is down -0.87%. Let’s examine how the Trade Triangles are positioned in both of these markets. Continue reading "Ford To Stay In America, Two Trump Thumbs Up On This One" →
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. According to St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard (voter) December seems to be a "reasonable time" to raise interest rates. My guess is that the Fed will do zero and hope to hold off raising interest rates until 2017. The reason I say that is that it would more than likely hurt the Christmas shopping season and that is something the Fed is loath to do.
Now let me say this, I'm not a fan of the Fed and I think they've handled things very poorly and have done nothing to spur or help the economy. I do however believe that when interest begin to move higher, it will be an incentive for people to go out and begin buying things and looking at real estate again before rates get out of their price range. In other words, I think it will have the opposite effect of not dulling the economy, but spurring the economy to greater productivity. Continue reading "Did This Formation Just Indicate That A Fed Rate Hike Is Ahead" →
Contrary to popular belief, although the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude inventories rose 170,000 b/d last week, that almost certainly did not happen. The EIA’s weekly production number comes from its production model, which is highly flawed. Its monthly numbers come from a survey, which is a much more reliable source of data.
Not including production data from the early 1970s, crude production in the U.S. peaked in April 2015 at 9.6 million barrels per day (mmbd). Crude production appears to have bottomed in July 2016 at 8.6 mmbd, making the peak-to-trough 900,000 b/d.
In August, the EIA reported that crude production increased by 51,000 b/d as the result of increased production in the Gulf of Mexico. But EIA’s forecast in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published in July for August turned out to be 524,000 b/d lower than the actual monthly figure, a huge forecasting error. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Did Not Increase 170,000 B/D Last Week" →
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. The Chinese have a saying that goes like this; "May you live in interesting times" well these certainly are interesting times in America.
It doesn't matter if you are on the right side of the ledger or the left side of the ledger change is coming. Just like the how the markets change the political climate also changes every so often and we are in one of those times right now.
So what's ahead for President-elect Trump? Well, I think it's fair to say that most all the pundits got this one wrong and to guess what's ahead would be in my humble opinion a mistake as no one knows at this time. What we do know is what the market are telling us and that is something we should all listen to and put aside any political differences.
Technically with the Trade Triangles, I see that the gold market is in a strong downtrend, crude oil is presenting a mixed picture and the major indices also in a quandary at the moment. Continue reading "It's A New Trading Week And A New President-Elect" →
Today I want to start off by thanking the brave men and women who have and continue to serve and protect our country. Thank you for all that you do!
Let's look at two very well-known and some would say mighty stocks. Both of these stocks are households names and have proven to be safe investments over time. The question now is, is that dynamic changing or has it changed already? Let's get started by looking the first stock.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG): For the first time in a long time Alphabet triggered a major sell signal which pushed all of the Trade Triangles into a negative mode. The first indication that there was trouble afoot for GOOG came on November 2 when the weekly Trade Triangle gave a red exit signal at $773. Is GOOG a buy here or is this once mighty stock headed lower? Continue reading "How The Mighty Have Fallen" →