It Looks Like Indiana Changed The World Last Night

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. Like many people around the world, I was watching the events unfold last night in Indiana.

The two big surprises to me were the fact that Ted Cruz suspended his campaign and that Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary. So what does all of this mean and how likely will it affect the markets?

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

For some time now the market has been moving sideways and looks as though it's reflecting the lower growth rates that we are seeing. Occasionally you'll see it pop, but then the market just seems to fall back under its own weight. The stock market is a forward-looking vehicle which looks ahead 6 to 9 months into the future. I think it's predicting that the battle between the representatives of both the Democrat and Republican parties will get nasty. All of which will translate into negative news for the stock market in the interim.

Having said all that, I'm going to do what I always do and that is separate fiction from fact with the use of the Trade Triangles. What I mean by that is if everyone says a stock should go up, but the stock is going down, then you have to understand that the trend is down and not what everyone wishes it should be. Continue reading "It Looks Like Indiana Changed The World Last Night" →

Can A Covered Call Strategy On Netflix Bode Well For You Too?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Introduction

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is a very controversial high-flying growth stock with a nosebleed valuation as measured by traditional metrics such as the price-to-earnings multiple (P/E ratio) and the PEG ratio. Due to its rapid growth, expanding original programming, wrestling market share away from big cable companies, expansion into international markets and its overall ubiquity, it's easy to see why investors are willing to pay a premium. It's difficult to arrive at an accurate valuation based on traditional metrics for this media disruptor. Due to these factors and the difficulty of placing an accurate valuation on Netflix, options in the form of covered call writing may be an effective way to leverage this high-flier while mitigating downside risk. Netflix offers a confluence of volatility, liquidity and a high level of interest which gives rise to high yielding premiums on a bi-weekly or monthly basis. This confluence bodes well for those who are long Netflix and desire to leverage options trading to augment returns and mitigate risk throughout the volatile nature of Netflix’s stock. Netflix’s recent earnings disappointment underscores the value of covered call writing to mitigate losses and smooth out drastic moves in the underlying security.

Note: This article is backing my long position while opportunistically and quantitatively writing covered calls to mitigate downside risk and generate income. I provide my real life examples embedded into my long position as Netflix is intrinsically volatile.

Leveraging The Volatility In Netflix

Netflix is a highly volatile stock and swings of $10 per share (or ~8%) throughout the course of a day are all too often observed. These swings to the upside or downside can be difficult to stomach. However, one can leverage his position via writing covered call contracts to mitigate these swings while remaining long this volatile stock. Utilizing biweekly or monthly contacts one can expect to obtain a cash premium of roughly 3%-6% with a strike price that's within 3%-5% of the strike price (tables 1 and 2). Continue reading "Can A Covered Call Strategy On Netflix Bode Well For You Too?" →

Fill In The Caption

Posted on by The INO.com Team

As promised here is today's caption for the Indiana primary.

Hillary ClintonWhat do you think would be the "perfect caption" for this photograph of Hillary Clinton?

Here's mine: "I am going to jail - no frigging way"!

Feel free to leave your caption, but please keep them above board.

For a good chuckle, be sure to read some of the captions from previous Fill In The Caption pictures.

Did Warren Buffett Just Shoot Down Negative Interest Rates?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello MarketClub Members everywhere, Adam Hewison here, wishing you a happy and prosperous May. I believe this month is going to be a very pivotal one for the stock market.

In the back of many traders' minds is the old market adage, "sell in May and go away". Is that what is going to happen this May? It is perhaps a little too early to tell as there are many, many factors in play the least of which is, of course, the presidential election which has electrified and gripped the country in a way that I have never seen before. Like always, I'm going to rely on the Trade Triangles to tell me what is going on in the marketplace.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

This morning, Warren Buffett indicated that he would take his money out of the banks if he had to pay them to keep his money. What he was referring to was negative interest rates. Berkshire Hathaway, which is the operation that Warren Buffett runs, is a conglomerate of companies and has about $60 billion in cash that it keeps in the bank. With the current low-interest rates, Berkshire Hathaway is earning about $600 million a year as opposed to the several billion of dollars it would earn in a more normal interest rate environment.

So in essence when one of the top investors in the world indicates that he would pull his money out of banks, he was saying to Janet Yellen, the head of the Fed, to back off the idea of negative interest rates. Way to go Warren - I think you win this one. Continue reading "Did Warren Buffett Just Shoot Down Negative Interest Rates?" →

Too Late To Short The Dollar?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The US consumer is under pressure. Consumer Confidence level fell to 89 in April, and retail sales fell by -0.3 MoM in March. And as if that weren’t enough, GDP growth missed the mark for a second consecutive quarter, with Q1 growth falling to as low as 0.5% annualized, well below expectations.

Naturally, those developments are not bringing a Fed rate hike any closer, and it leaves the Dollar widely exposed to short selling. It’s the catch-up game, where Dollar peers such as the Euro, Yen, and Aussie are gaining lost ground. The relative advantage of the US economy is narrowing, and the prospect of a tightening cycle from the Fed seems even more remote.

This isn’t the first time the Dollar has been hit by the catch-up game. Here’s how the game plays out: The Dollar turns weaker, shaving its value by several percentage points only to come back stronger in the end as the US economy regains momentum. That’s why one should tread lightly before pouncing on a Dollar short. After a series of disappointments, the chances of an upward surprise in US data is much greater. There’s a very real chance that shorting the Dollar at this stage, after a 6.5% correction, will be too late. Continue reading "Too Late To Short The Dollar?" →