Stock market price action is usually conducted in a series of up and down price phases – or waves/cycles. Typically, price will move higher or lower in phases- attempting to trend upward or downward over time. This type of price action is normal. Extended upward trends with very little downward price retracements happen sometimes – but not often. They usually happen in “excess phase” rallies or after some type of news event changes expectations for a symbol/sector.
Putting Concerns Into Perspective – Still Bullish
Since early November 2020, the US stock market has continued to rally in a mode that is similar to an excess phase rally – showing very little signs of moderate price rotation. While price volatility has continued to stay higher than normal, you can see from the SPY Daily chart below that it has rallied from $324.40 to $385.95 (over 18%) in just under 90 days. At some point in the future, a moderate price rotation/retracement will happen that may be in excess of 6% to 11% – as has happened in the past.
The purpose of this research post is to alert readers that the markets appear to have started a period of downside price rotation – which is normal. This SPY Daily chart, above, highlights the upward support channel originating from the March 21, 2020, COVID-19 lows (CYAN line) and also the upward support channel originating from the early November 2020 lows (YELLOW line). Continue reading "U.S. Stock Market Rolls Lower"→
Certain stock sectors are great tools for measuring the health and state of the economy. Transportation is arguably the sector that says the most about it. When transportation companies are posting profits, that means more goods are being shipped and the economy is growing. And when those same companies are missing earnings, it means that fewer goods are being shipped and the economy is either stagnating or contracting.
So far this year, the Dow Jones Transportation Average doesn't reflect a strong and robust economy. It's fallen around 10% year-to-date and most transportation stocks have been bouncing around their 52-week lows for the past six months or so. However, that downward trend could be on the verge of entering a major reversal. Continue reading "This Small Cap Stock Is Overdue For A Breakout Performance"→
All major U.S. stock indices posted gains last week except for the Russell 2000, which lost 1.2% and is also the only major index in negative territory for 2014. Despite the weakness in small caps, the broader market, as measured by the SP 500, has managed to rack up a decent 8.9% gain this year, largely on the back of technology issues.
The Nasdaq 100 is up 14.2% year to date. However, as I have been stating in this space for some time, if and when technology stocks stop leading, the broader market may be in for some significant problems over the near term.
Dow Makes New High, but Problems Persist
In last week's Market Outlook, I warned that the early September new closing high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average had not yet been corroborated by a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which, according to Dow Theory, was a red flag for the overall market.
That situation was averted last week by a new high in the industrials, clearing the way for more near-term strength in both indices.