Tag: Gold

Today's Video Update: GDP Misses, But The Fed Will Buy Us Out Of Slow Growth Right?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 26th of April.

GDP Slows
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a tepid 2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department reported on Friday, after growth nearly stalled at 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The dismal increase missed economists' expectations for a 3.0 percent growth pace. I guess a trillion dollars a year in stimulus spending doesn't get you very much anymore. Not to worry, as the Fed is supporting stock prices and that's all that seems to matter to this administration. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: GDP Misses, But The Fed Will Buy Us Out Of Slow Growth Right?" →

Portfolio Manager Greg Orrell: 'My Belief in Gold Has Not Wavered'

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The Gold Report: How has your bullish view on the gold sector evolved as a series of crises has jolted both the international stock market and the price of gold?

Greg Orrell: First off, my belief in gold as a monetary asset has not wavered. Japan basically admitted that it is bankrupt with its intention to aggressively debase its currency. Normally such actions would invoke, and may still, a race to the bottom as each country engages in economic warfare to deal with its debt issues. At this juncture the fear of global deflation among the G7 crowd remains its worst nightmare, especially as additional stimulus by the Federal Reserve is showing diminishing returns. With high debt levels in both the private and public sectors around the world, stimulating economic growth is proving elusive. These alarming events are setting the stage for the next leg up in the dollar gold price, in my opinion. The fiscal and monetary crisis is ongoing and underscores the necessity of owning gold assets.

Though agonizing, the past 18 months have been nothing more than a consolidation for gold from the September 2011 highs of $1,900/ounce ($1,900/oz). The recent decline in gold prices below $1,500/oz is not the end of the bull market in gold, despite the barrage of negative commentary by those wanting to dance on gold's grave. The destruction of currencies is in full bloom, but it is not a straight line. The problem for many gold investors is that they can see the endgame. Gold prices rise in a straight line at the end of a monetary system, but we are not there yet. It takes some patience to hold the course while the establishment fights tooth and nail to keep the dollar system from failing. Continue reading "Portfolio Manager Greg Orrell: 'My Belief in Gold Has Not Wavered'" →

Today's Video Update: Can We Trust This Market?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Wednesday, the 24th of April.

Can We Trust This Market?
A number of years ago when Ben Bernanke took over the chairmanship of the Fed, little did anybody predict that he would be single-handedly supporting the entire stock market. I asked several colleagues of mine over the past few days, "what would happen should the quantitative easing that Ben put in place stop?" They all gave me the same answer, "the market would crash." That is not a particularly compelling reason to own stocks, in my opinion, if stocks are been artificially held up. I have said this before, the trend is your friend, and as far as the DOW is concerned, the trend remains positive.

What Now Apple?
Yesterday, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced their earnings and while there was some good news, there was also some bad news. The bad news is that their profit margins continue to shrink and that coupled with no new innovation coming out of Apple anytime soon, does not spell out a particularly rosy scenario for this stock. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: Can We Trust This Market?" →

Is Gold as an Investment Finished?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstream media thinks.  In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sides of the debate.  Yet there has been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in gold.  The aptly named Howard Gold explains:

The Case for Owning Gold Has Collapsed; Yellow metal could be headed much, much lower .

Gold could be headed not much lower, but much much lower.  This was written on April 18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its nominal price) resided at $1391 per ounce.  So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold could go much much lower.  Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double ‘much’ whammy on you!

After critical support at 1524 was lost our first downside target of 1440 or so was sawn through like Balsa Wood.  Okay fine.  For those who micro manage every tick in the price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound must extend back up to and through the broken support level at 1440 or the next target in the low 1200’s is up next. Continue reading "Is Gold as an Investment Finished?" →

Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

How can we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week?

Here are some of the factors:

  • George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF by 55% in the fourth quarter of 2012.
  • He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about 12.2% at present.
  • On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that some members were discussing slowing the Fed $85 billion per month buying of Treasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thought before, the "printing" may not cause as much dollar debasement.
  • On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered its target price. It even recommended getting out of gold.
  • COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year (much more on this technical point below).
  • The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculators and trend followers.
  • Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million euros' worth of its gold to cover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was a fear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable gold holdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied the sale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has already moved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell, the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers, rather than flood the physical markets.

My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough by themselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market. Continue reading "Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect" →