Concerned About The Real Estate Market?

Our continuing research into the state of the real estate market suggests the Covid-19 virus event will likely put extreme pressure on many sectors within the US and global markets. This, Part III of a multi-part research article, will highlight many of the key economic data points that will soon be released and how these numbers may shock the markets. Additionally, as consumers and businesses prepare for an extended shutdown, it is important to understand the psychological process that takes place in the minds of people. PART I, PART II

Initially, people naturally hope for a quick and reasonable solution. As the process continues where an extended shutdown of the US economy persists, consumers and business managers change their expectations from optimism for a quick resumption of economic activity to “how do we survive this extended closure event”. This is when traders and investors really need to pay attention to what is happening in their local and national economies. One of the most important things to consider throughout an event like this is to watch how your local economy is operating and what is happening with local consumers. This will help you understand what is happening elsewhere.

Demand for certain items will continue almost as normal. We call this the Personal Consumer Essentials. These items are typically things like toilet paper, toothpaste, over the counter medications, underwear, food, and water. These are the types of purchases that must continue for average people to survive this type of event. Luxury items, vacations, extras, and other purchases may suffer throughout this process.

The first 30 days will likely be a transition period for many consumers. Remember, this is still the “hope” phase where Continue reading "Concerned About The Real Estate Market?"

Is A Real Estate Crash Coming?

Does history repeat itself? Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up? What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?

First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup. This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen. We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike. They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.

Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup? We hope not.

The peak that occurred in 2007 setup about 19 months before the 2008 Presidential election took place. The 2019 peak occurs about 13 months before the 2020 Presidential election. In both instances, a highly contentious political battle is taking place which may distract traders and investors from really paying attention to the underlying factors of the global markets. Continue reading "Is A Real Estate Crash Coming?"

Hot Investment Opportunity Related To Housing Market

Matt Thalman - INO.com Contributor - ETFs


US Housing data from October came in at their highest levels in ten years. High demand and limited supply are pushing housing prices higher this year. In August, housing prices in Denver, Miami, Houston and the Washington D.C. metro area hit levels that most consider being overvalued.

Furthermore, now reports indicate that home prices on the lower end of the spectrum are rising faster than those in the middle and high end. Acute shortages of housing, especially in the low end of the market is causing prices in that tier to increase much faster than those in the middle or high-end tier.

Many believe home prices are increasing because millennials are finally entering the housing market, which would certainly make sense when you consider the low end of the market, or starter homes, currently have the most demand.

Prices will increase until either supply, as in the number of homes available for purchase, catches up with demand or prices hit a point that reduces demand.

It is more likely the latter will occur first, due to the time required to build more homes and especially when we consider what is likely to continue happening with interest rates. The Federal Reserve has made it clear they plan to continue increasing interest rates for the next few years, and as rates rise, the cost of homeownership follows.

So, what does this all mean? Continue reading "Hot Investment Opportunity Related To Housing Market"