Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, the Opening Notes segment of NFTRH 602:
As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full-frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader's historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.
Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.
And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those 'man who predicted a new stock market crash now predicts... (blah blah blah)' headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now. Continue reading "'Sentiment Event' Rally Grinds On"→
“Many Christmases ago I went to buy a doll for my son. I reached for the last one they had, but so did another man. As I rained blows upon him I realized there had to be another way!”
This year markets are going another way.
We have been managing a potential Christmas Eve close-out sale in the stock market since SPX hopped the Bull Turnstile, negating topping potential and confirming bullish ascending triangles (not shown below as they appeared on daily charts) and its own major trends by breaking upward. Here is the most recent chart (from NFTRH 582) used to illustrate the situation.
Please consider this weekly chart for reference only. We had a lot of words in #582 about what I think is in play, but ultimately this public post is simply illustrating what is currently in play. And that is an upside extension (with associated sentiment readings to be updated this weekend in NFTRH 583) that would be roughly equal and opposite to the 2018 downside blow off (note: though the chart allows for higher levels, SPX has already qualified for a price and sentiment close-out, in the general spirit of the season). The blue box is the same height as the yellow shaded area. It’s more art than TA, but there you have it… some frame of reference. Continue reading "A Market Festivus"→
In part one, I explained how the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) and most index tracking ETF's are weighted. The weighting is based on a company's market capitalization, which means that since Apple Inc. (AAPL) is easily the largest company in the world, it carries the largest amount of weight within these investment vehicles. Furthermore in the past I explained how this amount of exposure to Apple may not be a good thing.
But, with Apple recently being added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) investors now have an index to park money and not feel over exposed to Apple due to its size. While the S&P 500 weights companies by its market cap, the Dow weights companies by its share price. Over the years, a number of analysts and market experts have said this is one of the Dow's major flaws and to an extent I would have to agree. But, because Apple is so much larger than all of the other companies within the market, I am very much in favor of this share price weighting format. Continue reading "Apple + Dow Jones = Better Apple Exposure (Part 2)"→