It’s time to announce the result of the 5th Pendulum swing pushed this January. In that race, I put heating oil (ultimate futures winner in the second half of 2017) vs. wheat futures (the top loser). The Pendulum effect favored the top loser, i.e., wheat to beat heating oil in the six month period. The image below contains the poll results of your voting for that experiment.
Image 1. Poll results
Chart courtesy of INO.com
Bingo! The majority of you guessed right choosing wheat as a winner and as you can see in the next chart that wheat has gained +17.56% as heating oil gained only +6.76. I would like to express my gratitude to those who chose the experiment success option for your trust! So after the first failure in the second half of 2017 (4th swing), the Pendulum experiment is back on a winning track! Let’s try it again and see what happens.
Chart 1. Half Year Futures Performance (First Half of 2018)
Chart courtesy of finviz.com
This time we will have an interesting race as the winner in the first half of 2018 is not a commodity, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) also known as the stock market fear gauge. It gained more than 40%, leaving its rivals far behind amid the roller-coaster ride in the S&P 500.
On the other side, which is red, there is the biggest loser, sugar with an almost 20% loss in the first half of 2018. The supply glut in the sugar market undermined the price for this commodity significantly. Continue reading "Pendulum Swing No.5: Back To Success!"