A Tale of Two Realities

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates

You may not have noticed it, but there is an enormous gulf between what many Americans are being told is happening in the world around us and how the financial markets are reacting – or, more accurately, not reacting – to it. It’s as if there are two completely different realities going on. Which reality you subscribe to will likely dictate your investment choices, including how you feel about which direction the bond market is headed.

In one reality – and it’s the one that gets the most coverage in the general media – is that the world is basically coming to an end. The most powerful nation on earth is being run for the past two weeks or so – although it seems like a lot longer – by an ignoramus who is moving our country and the entire world headlong into disaster. Continue reading "A Tale of Two Realities"

Various Markets; Weekly Views

By: Gary Tanashian of NFTRH

It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things. So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.

We update charts like these every week in NFTRH, but I have done relatively few for public review. So here it is, a simple weekly chart update of various markets, with very limited commentary interference from me.

US Stock Market

As you can see, US indexes have so far held critical support. Best projected case would be a bounce to SPX 2000 (+/-). The market continues to roll over on the intermediate trend as of now.

spx, ndx and dow

If the above is suspect to bearish, the broader US indexes are just bearish. Lower lows and lower highs abound and resistance is noted. Continue reading "Various Markets; Weekly Views"

U.S. Stock Market, Profits & Policy

U.S. stocks generally remain on bullish trends in all time frames.  Further, the Debt Ceiling (and Government shutdown) theater seems to be playing out in the usual way that these events play out; the stock market has been correcting in an orderly way and seems to be waiting for an inevitable compromise between the White House and Republican leaders.  This of course would spur a next leg up if the usual script plays out.  That is how it looks, with a traditional bull catalyst (heavy media rotation of an Armageddon-like political event) in play.

Yet there is a negative in play that actually matters, as corporate forward profit guidance is degenerating.  Or is it really a negative?  Graph from Sentimentrader.com: Continue reading "U.S. Stock Market, Profits & Policy"