Who's Winning The 'Trade War'?

Just how crazy is Donald Trump?

Back at the beginning of March, the president famously tweeted:

“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!”
- President Donald Trump

You probably don’t remember what the exact reaction to that was, but you can probably guess it involved hoots of derisive laughter. After all, the idea of the president of the United States upsetting the world apple cart by supposedly starting a trade war with China and our biggest trade partners and closest allies was the height of lunacy.

But who’s laughing now? Continue reading "Who's Winning The 'Trade War'?"

Copper To Retest $1.94 After Breaking Support

Last September I posted a monthly chart of Copper futures to warn you that the metal has been approaching the area of strong multi-year resistance. In that very same post, I set specific triggers to watch for further price action.

Recently, one of those triggers was broken, and now it’s time to update the chart.

Chart. Copper Futures Monthly: Crucial Support Was Broken

Copper
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The global chart structure hasn’t changed, and I posted its full reconstruction adding some new annotations to highlight the most recent price action. Continue reading "Copper To Retest $1.94 After Breaking Support"

Hoist by Their Own Petard

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau


I certainly don’t agree with Mick Mulvaney’s purported efforts – if true— to emasculate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but I am thoroughly enjoying the consternation he’s putting his enemies through – although probably not nearly as much as he probably is. The blatant hypocrisy they’re displaying as they fall over themselves with their fake outrage has been fun to watch.

In case you haven’t been following the story, Mulvaney – who also heads the White House Office and Management and Budget – has been running the CFPB on an interim basis ever since his predecessor, Richard Cordray, resigned from the agency the Friday after Thanksgiving last year so he could run for governor of Ohio. On his way out the door, when he thought no one was looking, Cordray appointed his second-in-command, chief of staff Leandra English, to succeed him, a move that was thrown out by a federal judge. At the same time, President Trump appointed Mulvaney – a very vocal opponent of the agency – to run the CFPB until a permanent replacement is named and seated. Continue reading "Hoist by Their Own Petard"

Global Supply/Demand Oil Outlook

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Oil Outlook


The Energy Information Administration updated its global supply/demand oil outlook for June. It shows total OECD oil inventories rising through November, ending the year about where they were last December.

Oil Outlook

This is in contrast to the rapid decline in stocks over the second half of 2017, and that enabled oil prices to rise. If this forecast is realized, it should have a moderating impact on prices, taking away some of the risk premium embedded in futures prices.

The stock projections are based on a number of assumptions: Continue reading "Global Supply/Demand Oil Outlook"

Trump, Putin Pressure Saudis To Raise Oil Production

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Trump Putin Saudis Oil Production


About a month ago, President Trump tweeted:

"Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea. Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!"

When asked to comment on Trump's tweet, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC, "Markets should determine price."

Perhaps Trump later made the kind of call he talked about a decade ago. In 2008, President Trump was interviewed by Jim Cramer about OPEC. In this video (starting 5:38), Trump stated:

"The biggest problem I never hear anybody talk about. I told you about it once. Every time they lower interest rates, the cartel, because I call it a cartel-- the illegal monopoly-- raises oil prices. So the monopoly, because that's what it is, a total illegal monopoly. If businesses ever formed OPEC, everybody would be put in jail. Every time a country hits oil, they are invited into the cartel. It's a disgrace. Now you have oil prices that are going to be over $100, and nobody in this country calls and says. 'Get that goddamn oil price down. You get it down. And you get it down fast.'"

"And you can do it….In the old days, our presidents used to call. We don't call anymore….If spoken to properly, those prices would come down like you wouldn't believe."
Continue reading "Trump, Putin Pressure Saudis To Raise Oil Production"