The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…
Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon (9.11.19)
The first and more recent post noted that the 30yr yield needs to climb above 2.2% to even think of hinting toward a temporary inflation trade. The chart from that post shows that while the Continuum is of a long, deflationary structure the periodic pings upward to the (monthly EMA 100) limiter often represent times of cyclical inflationary bursts. This morning the 30-year yield stands at 2.15%.
As for the older post linked above, it was personally a little difficult not to buy in (other than for a couple of ‘bounce’ trades) to the prospect of the global inflation that Central Banks are trying to summon. But that post and others have routinely shown intact downtrends in the inflatables. So it was a case of ‘break the trends and we’ll talk inflation trade’. Here are the daily charts of the CRB index and a key headline commodity. Continue reading "Silver/Gold Ratios Is A Guide As Inflation Signals Fade Again"